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Of 1019 U.S. adults responding to a 2017 Harris poll, \(47 \%\) said they always or often read nutrition labels when grocery shopping. a. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population proportion of U.S. adults who always or often read nutrition labels when grocery shopping. b. What is the width of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval? c. Name a confidence level that would produce an interval wider than the 95\% confidence interval. Explain why you think this interval would be wider than a \(95 \%\) confidence interval. d. Construct the interval using the confidence level you proposed in part c and find the width of the interval. Is this interval wider than the \(95 \%\) confidence interval?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The 95% confidence interval for the proportion of US adults who often or always read nutrition labels when grocery shopping is (0.440, 0.500). b. The width of the 95% confidence interval is 0.060. c. A 99% confidence level would give a wider interval because it means being more sure that the actual proportion falls within the interval. d. The interval for a 99% Confidence Level is (0.430, 0.510), and its width is 0.080, which is wider than the 95% Confidence Interval.

Step by step solution

01

Calculating the 95% Confidence Interval

First, calculate the standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) of the proportion. This is represented by the formula \(\(\sqrt{{p(1-p)}} \over n}\), where \(p\) is the proportion and \(n\) is the number of people polled. In this case, \(p=0.47\) and \(n=1019\), so the \(\sigma\) is approximately 0.0158. The 95% Confidence Interval formula is \(p \pm 1.96*\sigma\), plug in the known values to get (\(0.47 \pm 1.96*0.0158\)), which equals (\(0.440, 0.500\)).
02

Calculating the Width of the Interval

Subtract the lower value of the interval from the higher value of the interval. In this case, \(0.500-0.440=0.060\). The width of the 95% confidence interval is 0.060.
03

Predicting a Wider Confidence Level

Any Confidence Level above 95% would produce a wider interval. This is because the higher the confidence level, the wider the interval needs to be to ensure that the actual proportion falls within that interval.
04

Calculating a New Confidence Level and Interval

Choose a 99% Confidence Level as it is higher than 95%. Calculate the standard deviation as done above. The confidence interval for 99% is \(p \pm 2.58*\sigma\), which comes out to (\(0.430, 0.510\)).
05

Comparing Interval Widths

Calculate the width of the new interval using subtraction, \(0.510 - 0.430 = 0.080\). As expected, the 99% Confidence Interval is wider than the 95% Confidence Interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
In statistics, understanding the concept of a population proportion is essential, especially when making inferences about a large group based on a sample. The "population proportion" refers to the fraction or percentage of members of a population that have a particular characteristic. For the Harris poll in our exercise, the population proportion is the percentage of U.S. adults who said they always or often read nutrition labels when grocery shopping. In this case, it is given as 47%. This proportion is critical as it provides a basis for calculating the confidence interval, allowing us to estimate the true proportion within the entire population. This value serves as an approximation and needs to be substituted into formulas during statistical evaluations to make meaningful insights about the entire population.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of data values. In the context of a population proportion, it helps in gauging how much the sample proportion could deviate from the actual population proportion. To calculate the standard deviation of a sample proportion, we use the formula \( \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \), where \( p \) is the sample proportion and \( n \) is the sample size. For our poll results, \( p = 0.47 \) (or 47%) and \( n = 1019 \), leading to a standard deviation of approximately 0.0158. This value plays a crucial role in constructing the confidence interval, as it is used to determine the margin of error. A smaller standard deviation indicates that the sample proportion is a close approximation to the true population proportion, thus making it an essential step in calculating reliable confidence intervals.
Confidence Level
Confidence level is a key concept when constructing a confidence interval. It represents the probability that the value of a parameter falls within a specified range of values. Common confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%, with the level indicating the degree of certainty we have in our interval estimate. In our exercise, a 95% confidence level is used initially, meaning we are 95% confident that the calculated interval contains the true population proportion of U.S. adults often reading nutrition labels. The higher the confidence level, the wider the confidence interval becomes, because more range is needed to ensure the true parameter is captured. For example, in Step 4 of the solution, moving from a 95% level to a 99% confidence level results in a wider interval because it provides greater assurance that the true proportion falls within this broader range.
Interval Width
The width of the confidence interval refers to the range within which we estimate the true population proportion to fall. This width is determined by subtracting the lower bound of the interval from the upper bound. In the exercise, the 95% confidence interval was \( 0.440 \) to \( 0.500 \), resulting in a width of \( 0.060 \). A wider interval suggests more uncertainty about the exact population proportion, while a narrower interval suggests higher precision. Factors impacting interval width include the sample size and the chosen confidence level. A larger sample size generally results in a narrower interval, while a higher confidence level leads to a wider interval. This relationship highlights the trade-off between the confidence level and the precision of the estimate, an important consideration when designing statistical studies.

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