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Suppose there is a theory that \(90 \%\) of the people in the United States dream in color. You survey a random sample of 200 people; 198 report that they dream in color, and 2 report that they do not. You wish to verify the claim made in the theory.

Short Answer

Expert verified
To verify the claim made in the theory, perform a z-test comparing the observed proportion \(p = 0.99\) to the claimed proportion \(p_0 = 0.9\). Based on the test result, it will be determined whether or not it is likely that the true proportion is 0.9.

Step by step solution

01

Define Hypotheses

The null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) is that the proportion of people who dream in color is 0.9, while the alternative hypothesis (\(H_1\)) is that the proportion is not 0.9.
02

Calculate Observed Proportion

We calculate the observed proportion \(p\) by dividing the number of people, who reported that they dream in color (198), by the total number of people surveyed (200). So, \(p = \frac{198}{200} = 0.99\).
03

Calculate Standard Error

The standard error is calculated using the formula \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{p*(1-p)}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.99 * (1-0.99)}{200}}\), where \(n\) is the sample size.
04

Calculate z-score

The z-score is calculated as \(z = \frac{p - p_0}{SE}\), where \(p_0\) is the claimed population proportion.
05

Compare z-score with Critical Value

If the absolute value of the z-score is greater than the critical value for a predetermined alpha level, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the true proportion of people dreaming in color is different from 0.9. Otherwise, we do not reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, symbolized as \( H_0 \), is a starting assumption in hypothesis testing that states there is no effect, or no difference, or in the context of proportions, that a certain proportion is true. In the exercise provided, the theory that \(90\%\) of people in the United States dream in color is taken as the null hypothesis. This means we initially assume that the proportion \( p_0 = 0.9 \) is accurate before any testing is done.

It represents a skeptical perspective or a claim to be tested. The evidence gathered through the sample aims at challenging this assumption. A null hypothesis is typically tested against an alternative hypothesis, which is considered if the test results deem the null hypothesis to be unlikely.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \( H_1 \), is what a researcher aims to support by providing evidence against the null hypothesis. It represents a statement suggesting that there is an effect, a difference, or a specific lack of agreement with the null hypothesis's claim. For the sample problem, the alternative hypothesis posits that the proportion of people who dream in color is not \(90\%\), which can mean it's either higher or lower than that value.

The acceptance of the alternative hypothesis in hypothesis testing is contingent on the data indicating that the null hypothesis is an implausible explanation of the observed data. Thus, the exercise we are considering involves testing the null hypothesis against the possibility that the real proportion differs significantly from \(90\%\).
Observed Proportion
In hypothesis testing, particularly when dealing with proportions, the observed proportion is the ratio obtained from actual sample data. It's symbolized as \(p\) and in our exercise, represents the proportion of people who reported dreaming in color. To determine this, we take the number of individuals who confirmed they dream in color and divide it by the total number surveyed.

In the given example, with 198 out of 200 participants reporting they dream in color, the observed proportion is \(p = \frac{198}{200} = 0.99\). This value is the empirical evidence collected, and it will be used to assess the validity of the null hypothesis through a comparison against the claimed proportion.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) in statistics is a measure of the amount of variability or dispersion from the sample statistic to the true population parameter. It's vital in hypothesis testing as it assesses how far the sample proportion could be expected to deviate from the true population proportion, simply due to random chance.

In the context of a proportion, SE is calculated as \( SE = \[sqrt{p * (1-p)/n}\] \), where \(p\) is the observed proportion from the sample, and \(n\) is the sample size. In the exercise, the standard error is used to contextualize the observed proportion relative to what the null hypothesis predicted, assisting in eventual conclusions about the population proportion.
Z-score
The z-score, in hypothesis testing, is a standardized value that represents the number of standard errors a data point is from the mean value predicted by the null hypothesis. It is a crucial component because it allows the comparison of the observed results with the expected results under the null hypothesis, on a standardized scale, regardless of the actual units involved.

In our exercise, the z-score formula \( z = \frac{p - p_0}{SE} \) compares the observed proportion \(p\) to the null hypothesis's expected proportion \(p_0\) by accounting for standard error. A high absolute value of z-score indicates that the observed proportion is far from the hypothesized proportion, suggesting that such a difference is unlikely to occur by random chance alone. This calculation guides researchers to either reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis based on how extreme the z-score is.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The Perry Preschool Project was created in the early 1960 s by David Weikart in Ypsilanti, Michigan. One hundred twenty three African American children were randomly assigned to one of two groups: One group enrolled in the Perry Preschool, and one did not enroll. Follow-up studies were done for decades to answer the research question of whether attendance at preschool had an effect on high school graduation. The table shows whether the students graduated from regular high school or not. Students who received GEDs were counted as not graduating from high school. This table includes 121 of the original \(123 .\) This is a test of homogeneity, because the students were randomized into two distinct samples. (Schweinhart et al. 2005 ) $$ \begin{array}{|lcc|} \hline & \text { Preschool } & \text { No Preschool } \\ \hline \text { HS Grad } & 37 & 29 \\ \hline \text { No HS Grad } & 20 & 35 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. For those who attended preschool, the high school graduation rate was \(37 / 57\), or \(64.9 \%\). Find the high school graduation rate for those not attending preschool, and compare the two. Comment on what the rates show for these subjects. b. Are attendance at preschool and high school graduation associated? Use a \(0.05\) level of significance.

In Chapter 9 , you learned some tests of means. Are tests of means used for numerical or categorical data?

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