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Uniroyal Electronics Company buys certain parts for its refrigerators from Bob's Corporation. The parts are received in shipments of 400 boxes, each box containing 16 parts. The quality control department at Uniroyal Electronics first randomly selects 1 box from each shipment and then randomly selects 4 parts from that box. The shipment is accepted if at most 1 of the 4 parts is defective. The quality control inspector at Uniroyal Electronics selected a box from a recently received shipment of such parts. Unknown to the inspector, this box contains 3 defective parts. a. What is the probability that this shipment will be accepted? b. What is the probability that this shipment will not be accepted?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The probability that this shipment will be accepted is approximately 0.55. b. The probability that this shipment will not be accepted is 0.45.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the total number of ways 4 parts can be selected

From a total of 16 parts, 4 parts are to be selected. This is a combinations problem, which is given by the formula \(C(n,k) = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\). Here \(n = 16\) and \(k = 4\), so the total number of ways to select 4 parts is \(C(16,4)\). Using the formula, we find that there are a total of 1820 ways to select 4 parts.
02

Calculate the number of ways to select at most 1 defective part

This can happen in two cases: when there are no defective parts and when there is 1 defective part. Let's calculate each case. - When there are no defective parts: All four parts are non-defective. As there are 16-3=13 good parts in the box, this can happen in \(C(13,4)\) ways. This equals 715 ways. - When there is 1 defective part: One part is defective and the remaining three parts are non-defective. This can happen in \(C(3,1)*C(13,3)\) ways. This equals 286 ways. In total, the number of ways to select at most 1 defective part equals 715 + 286 = 1,001 ways.
03

Calculate the probability the shipment will be accepted

The probability is the number of favorable outcomes over the total number of outcomes. Here, the favorable outcomes are the ways to select at most 1 defective part, which are 1,001 ways. The total outcomes are the ways to select any 4 parts, which are 1820 ways. So, the probability is \(\frac{1001}{1820} = 0.55\), approximately.
04

Calculate the probability the shipment will not be accepted

The shipment will not be accepted if more than one part is defective. This is the complementary event to the event that the shipment is accepted. So we can find this probability by subtracting the probability that the shipment is accepted from 1. So, the probability the shipment will not be accepted equals 1 - 0.55 = 0.45

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics dealing with counting, arrangement, and combination of objects. In many real-life scenarios, such as quality inspections, we use combinatorics to determine possible outcomes and make informed decisions.
When trying to understand how many ways we can choose a subset of items from a larger set, we often use the combination formula: \[C(n, k) = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\] Here, \(n\) represents the total number of options, and \(k\) is the number of choices to be made.
In our example, we have 16 parts in a box and need to choose 4. Thus, using the formula \(C(16, 4)\), we calculate there are 1,820 different ways to select these parts, emphasizing the vast number of possibilities in combinatorial selections.
Defective Items
Defective items refer to parts or products that do not meet the required standards of quality. In manufacturing and quality control, identifying defective items is crucial for maintaining product reliability and consumer trust.
In the given problem, the box selected has 3 defective parts out of 16. The challenge is to assess the likelihood of picking these defective parts in the sample of 4 parts.
Understanding the nature of defects and their statistical occurrence helps quality controllers devise better sampling and inspection methods, ensuring defective items are identified and addressed before products reach customers.
Quality Control
Quality control is a systematic approach to ensuring that products or services meet defined standards of excellence. It involves testing items to identify defects before they reach the consumer.
In our scenario, the quality control process involves selecting a random box and then sampling parts from it, aiming to detect any defects effectively. This provides an insight into the overall quality of a shipment.
Moreover, quality control helps in reducing waste and improving customer satisfaction by ensuring that only defect-free items are distributed. It is an integral part of manufacturing that helps maintain a brand's reputation and product reliability.
Acceptance Sampling
Acceptance sampling is a statistical method used in quality control. The purpose is to determine whether to accept or reject a shipment based on examining a sample of items from the lot.
This method is beneficial when inspecting every individual item in a large shipment is impractical due to time, cost, or logistic constraints. Instead, a sample is selected and tested for defects.
In our example, a shipment is accepted if at most one defective part is found in the randomly selected parts. If more defects are discovered, the shipment is rejected.
This technique helps manage quality efficiently, balancing between the risk of overlooking defects and the cost of intensive inspection. Thus, it ensures the quality without evaluating every piece, which might be cumbersome and unnecessary.

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