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An average of \(6.3\) robberies occur per day in a large city. a. Using the Poisson formula, find the probability that on a given day exactly 3 robberies will occur in this city. b. Using the appropriate probabilities table from Appendix \(C\), find the probability that on a given day the number of robberies that will occur in this city is \(\mathbf{i}\). at least 12 ii. at most 3 iii. 2 to 6

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The probability of exactly 3 robberies happening is calculated using the Poisson distribution formula, which results in approx. 0.063. b. (i) To find the probability of at least 12 robberies happening, use 1 minus the probability of 11 or fewer occurring, which results in approx. 0.005. ii. To find the probability of at most 3 robberies happening, simply find the cumulative probability for 3 or fewer occurrences, which results in approx. 0.151. iii. To find the probability for the range 2 to 6, calculate the cumulative probability up to 6 and subtract it from the cumulative probability up to 1, to result in a probability of approx. 0.647.

Step by step solution

01

Applying Poisson Formula

Using the Poisson formula, which is \(P(X=k)= \frac{e^{-\lambda} \cdot \lambda^{k}}{k!}\), for \(\lambda = 6.3\) and \(k=3\), to calculate the probability for exactly \(3\) robberies.
02

Using Cumulative Probabilities for 'At Least' Scenario

To find the probability of 'at least 12' robberies, use the complement rule. First, you calculate the total probability of 11 or fewer occurrences. Then, subtract this value from 1 to get the probability of 'at least 12' robberies.
03

Using Cumulative Probabilities for 'At Most' Scenario

Use the cumulative probabilities table again. This time, to find the probability of 'at most 3' robberies, simply find the cumulative probability for 3 or fewer occurrences.
04

Using Cumulative Probabilities for range '2 to 6'

To find the probability for the range '2 to 6' robberies, find the cumulative probability up to 6 and subtract the cumulative probability up to 1, as the range starts from 2. This yields the probability for getting exactly 2 to 6 robberies.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Cumulative Probability
Cumulative probability is a concept that helps us determine the likelihood of a random variable being less than or equal to a certain value. It provides a way to consider the accumulated probabilities of multiple outcomes, rather than focusing on one specific result. For instance, if you want to know the probability of having 3 or fewer robberies in a day, cumulative probability allows you to sum up the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, and 3 robberies.

Cumulative probabilities are typically given in probability tables, which offer quick references. In practical applications, finding this probability saves time and ensures calculations are accurate because they factor in several individual probabilities in one step. This concept is especially useful in the Poisson distribution when determining probabilities within specific constraints such as 'at most' or a certain range.
Complement Rule
The complement rule is a fundamental concept in probability theory that allows you to find the probability of an event by using its opposite. Specifically, it states that the probability of an event not occurring is 1 minus the probability of the event occurring.

In the context of our problem, to find out the probability of having at least 12 robberies, we would first calculate the cumulative probability of having 11 or fewer robberies. Then, subtract this from 1 to get the desired probability for at least 12 occurrences. This rule is especially helpful when direct calculations for an event are complex, but its opposite is easier to find.
Probability Tables
Probability tables are powerful tools for simplifying the process of finding cumulative probabilities, especially with complex distributions like Poisson. These tables contain pre-calculated probabilities for different values of \( \lambda \), the average rate of occurrence, and k, the number of successes.

In using these tables for Poisson distributions, you can quickly find probabilities for scenarios like 'at most' or 'at least' occurrences by referencing cumulative values. For example, if you want to know the likelihood of having at most 3 robberies, the cumulative value for 3 or fewer robberies will provide this answer instantly. These tables are included in many textbooks and statistical appendix sections for rapid access and accuracy.
Poisson Formula
The Poisson formula is a critical mathematical tool used to find the probability of a given number of events happening within a fixed interval of time or space. It is especially useful when events occur independently and at a constant average rate. The formula is given by:\[P(X=k)= \frac{e^{-\lambda} \cdot \lambda^{k}}{k!}\]where \( \lambda \) is the average number of occurrences, \( e \) is Euler's number (approximately 2.718), \( k \) is the number of events we're interested in, and the exclamation mark "!" denotes the factorial.

In our specific robbery example, you would plug in \( \lambda = 6.3 \) and \( k=3 \) to calculate the probability of exactly 3 robberies occurring on a given day. The versatility and straightforwardness of the Poisson formula make it a go-to in scenarios where you need to model the probability of events over time or space.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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