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Mong Corporation makes auto batteries. The company claims that \(80 \%\) of its LL.70 batteries are good for 70 months or longer. A consumer agency wanted to check if this claim is true. The agency took a random sample of 40 such batteries and found that \(75 \%\) of them were good for 70 months or longer. a. Using the \(1 \%\) significance level, can you conclude that the company's claim is false? b. What will your decision be in part a if the probability of making a Type I error is zero? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. If the calculated p-value < 0.01, reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the company's claim is false. Otherwise, don't reject the null hypothesis and the company's claim is not proven false. b. The probability of making a Type I error is 1% and does not change, even if the probability to make Type I error is declared as zero.

Step by step solution

01

Define null and alternative hypothesis

The null hypothesis (H0) is that \(80 \%\) of the batteries are good for 70 months or longer. The alternative hypothesis (H1) is that the percentage is less than \(80 \%\).
02

Calculate test statistic

The test statistic for proportion can be calculated by using the formula \(Z = \frac{(\hat{p} - p_0)}{\sqrt{\frac {p_0*(1-p_0)}{n}}}\) where \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion (0.75), \(p_0\) is the population proportion (0.80), and \(n\) is the sample size (40). Substituting these values we get \(Z = \frac{(0.75 - 0.80)}{\sqrt{\frac {0.80*(1-0.80)}{40}}}\). Calculate Z score.
03

Find p-value

The p-value is the probability of obtaining a result as extreme as the observed one, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. The p-value can be found using standard normal table for the calculated Z score.
04

Comparing the p-value with significance level

The null hypothesis is rejected if the p-value is less than the significance level. Here, the significance level is \(1 \% = 0.01\).So, compare the calculated p-value with \(0.01\).
05

Assess the probability of making a Type I error

The probability of making a Type I error is equal to the significance level of the test which is \(1 \%\) in this case. Even if the probability of making a Type I error is zero, the hypothesis testing process remains the same, because the significance level does not change.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the initial step is to establish a statement called the null hypothesis, often abbreviated as \(H_0\). The null hypothesis represents a general statement or position that there is no effect, no difference, or no change. It acts as a presumption that we start with before gathering further evidence.
For the exercise involving Mong Corporation's battery claims, the null hypothesis is that 80% of the LL.70 batteries last for 70 months or more. Here, \(H_0: p = 0.80\), asserting that the population proportion is 80%. This claim reflects the company’s belief about battery longevity.
The null hypothesis is crucial because it provides a standard against which we can test our alternative hypothesis, and it helps maintain objectivity in the analysis.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, often denoted as \(H_1\) or \(H_a\), posits the opposite of the null hypothesis. It represents the outcome we often aim to demonstrate through our statistical test. In contrast to the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis is what you believe might be true or what you want to prove.
In the Mong Corporation case, the alternative hypothesis is that fewer than 80% of the batteries meet the 70-month standard. This is expressed as \(H_1: p < 0.80\). The consumer agency suggests that the company's claim might be exaggerated, and they suspect that the real percentage of durable batteries is less than what is stated.
Effectively challenging the null hypothesis often requires a well-defined alternative hypothesis, as this guides the direction and focus of the analysis.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a standardized value that helps determine the relationship between your sample data and the null hypothesis. It quantifies how far the observed data is from what we expect under the null hypothesis, often assuming the distribution follows a known form.
In the case of Mong Corporation, the test statistic is calculated using the formula for a proportion: \[ Z = \frac{(\hat{p} - p_0)}{\sqrt{\frac {p_0(1-p_0)}{n}}} \] Here, \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion (0.75), \(p_0\) is the population proportion according to the null hypothesis (0.80), and \(n\) is the sample size (40).
This formula helps compute the \(Z\) score, indicating how many standard deviations the sample proportion is from the population proportion under \(H_0\). The magnitude of the test statistic determines whether we reject the null hypothesis.
Significance Level
The significance level, symbolized as \(\alpha\), is a critical concept in hypothesis testing. It represents the probability threshold below which the null hypothesis will be rejected. Commonly used significance levels are 0.05 (5%) and 0.01 (1%). The choice of significance level is essential as it reflects how strong the statistical evidence must be before one can reject the null hypothesis.
In the original problem, a significance level of 1% was chosen. This means that there is a willingness to accept a 1% chance of wrongly rejecting the null hypothesis if it is true, known as a Type I error.
  • A lower significance level indicates a stricter criterion for rejecting the null hypothesis, reducing Type I errors.
  • However, this might increase the risk of another type of error called Type II error, which involves failing to reject a false null hypothesis.
Comparing the p-value with the significance level guides the decision on whether the null hypothesis can be safely rejected.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The standard therapy used to treat a disorder cures \(60 \%\) of all patients in an average of 140 visits. A health care provider considers supporting a new therapy regime for the disorder if it is effective in reducing the number of visits while retaining the cure rate of the standard therapy. A study of 200 patients with the disorder who were treated by the new therapy regime reveals that 108 of them were cured in an average of 132 visits with a standard deviation of 38 visits. What decision should be made using a \(.01\) level of significance?

Make the following tests of hypotheses. a. \(H_{0}: \mu=80, \quad H_{1}: \mu \neq 80, \quad n=33, \quad \bar{x}=76.5, \quad \sigma=15, \quad \alpha=.10\) b. \(H_{0}: \mu=32, \quad H_{1}: \mu<32, \quad n=75, \quad \bar{x}=26.5, \quad \sigma=7.4, \quad \alpha=.01\) c. \(H_{0}: \mu=55, \quad H_{1}: \mu>55, \quad n=40, \quad \bar{x}=60.5, \quad \sigma=4, \quad \alpha=.05\)

An carlier study claimed that U.S. adults spent an average of 114 minutes with their families per day. A recently taken sample of 25 adults from a city showed that they spend an average of 109 minutes per day with their families. The sample standard deviation is 11 minutes. Assume that the times spent by adults with their families have an approximately normal distribution. a. Using the \(1 \%\) significance level, test whether the mean time spent currently by all adults with their families in this city is different from 114 minutes a day. b. Suppose the probability of making a Type I error is zero. Can you make a decision for the test of part a without going through the five steps of hypothesis testing? If yes, what is your decision? Explain.

Consider \(H_{0}: \mu=80\) versus \(H_{1}: \mu \neq 80\) for a population that is normally distributed. a. A random sample of 25 observations taken from this population produced a sample mean of 77 and a standard deviation of 8 . Using \(\alpha=.01\), would you reject the null hypothesis? b. Another random sample of 25 observations taken from the same population produced a sample mean of 86 and a standard deviation of \(6 .\) Using \(\alpha=.01\), would you reject the null hypothesis?

Thirty percent of all people who are inoculated with the current vaccine used to prevent a disease contract the disease within a year. The developer of a new vaccine that is intended to prevent this disease wishes to test for significant evidence that the new vaccine is more effective. a. Determine the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses. b. The developer decides to study 100 randomly selected people by inoculating them with the new vaccine. If 84 or more of them do not contract the disease within a year, the developer will conclude that the new vaccine is superior to the old one. What significance level is the developer using for the test? c. Suppose 20 people inoculated with the new vaccine are studied and the new vaccine is concluded to be better than the old one if fewer than 3 people contract the disease within a year. What is the significance level of the test?

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