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What assumption(s) must hold true to use the normal distribution to make a confidence interval for the population proportion, \(p\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
To use the normal distribution for making a confidence interval for the population proportion, the following assumptions must hold true: the sample is randomly selected, the binomial distribution can be approximated by a normal distribution, and sample observations are independent.

Step by step solution

01

Assumption 1: Random Sampling

The data should be collected through a proper random sampling method. This helps to ensure that each individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected and eliminates the chance of bias.
02

Assumption 2: The Normal Approximation

The binomial distribution should be suitably approximated by a normal distribution. For this, we apply the rule of thumb that \(np > 5\) and \(n(1-p) > 5\), where \(n\) is the size of the sample, and \(p\) is the estimated proportion of the population.
03

Assumption 3: Independence

The independence assumption states that the selection of any individual does not influence the selection of another individual. This is generally assumed to be true, especially in the case where the population size is much larger than the sample size.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Sampling
Random sampling is a critical assumption when building a confidence interval for a population proportion. It ensures that every individual within the entire population has an equal probability of being chosen.
This equal probability helps to eliminate bias, making the sample truly representative of the population.
A well-executed random sampling process leads to more accurate statistical conclusions, as the sample accurately reflects the diversity and variations within the population.
  • Enables equal chance for selection
  • Eliminates selection bias
  • Ensures representativeness of the population
To achieve random sampling, one might use methodologies like random number generators or drawing lots, ensuring no human preferences skew the selection process.
Confidence Interval
The confidence interval offers a range of values where we expect our population parameter, such as the proportion, to fall.
It quantifies the uncertainty involved in using a sample to estimate the population proportion.
A typical confidence interval might be expressed with a certain percentage, such as 95%, which indicates there is a 95% probability that the interval contains the true population proportion.
A more precise interval means a smaller range of values, which is ideal but depends significantly on the sample size and variability.
  • Provides a reliable range
  • Quantifies estimation uncertainty
  • Makes statistical results more interpretable
Larger sample sizes and higher confidence levels provide narrower confidence intervals, increasing the accuracy of estimations.
Population Proportion
Population proportion is the measure of interest when determining a confidence interval. It represents the fraction of the population with a particular characteristic.
Consider the situation where researchers want to find the proportion of people preferring a new product in a market. The population proportion would be the ratio of those individuals who prefer the product overall.
To accurately estimate this, researchers rely on taking samples and focusing on sample proportions, which are then used to infer the population proportion.
  • Reflects characteristics within a population
  • Inferred through sample data
  • Key focus in estimating and studying distributions
Understanding and deriving the population proportion is essential to creating insights in social research, market insights, and scientific studies.
Normal Approximation
Normal approximation is an assumption that allows us to use the normal distribution to model the binomial distribution, especially with large sample sizes.
According to the rule of thumb, both the product of sample size and proportion, (np), and the product of sample size and 1 minus the proportion, (n(1-p)), should be greater than 5.
This condition ensures that the sample behaves more like a normal distribution rather than a binomial one, simplifying the statistical analysis with easier calculation methods.
  • Relies on sample and proportion criteria
  • Facilitates simpler, normal-based calculations
  • Applicable to larger sample size scenarios
This approximation helps provide greater flexibility in hypothesis testing and confidence intervals estimation, as normal distribution tools are widely accessible and well-understood.
Independence Assumption
Independence assumption ensures that the selection of any individual in a sample does not affect the selection of another.
For many practical situations, as long as the sample size is not too large relative to the population size, this assumption can be safely made.
It is particularly valid when the population is substantially larger than the sample, often referred to as sampling without replacement.
  • Ensures unbiased representation
  • Supports statistical independence
  • Valid in large population scenarios
Without independence, results can be misleading because the samples might not reflect true randomness, leading to errors in estimating the population proportion.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

a. A sample of 1100 observations taken from a population produced a sample proportion of \(.32 .\) Make a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\). b. Another sample of 1100 observations taken from the same population produced a sample proportion of .36. Make a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\). c. A third sample of 1100 observations taken from the same population produced a sample proportion of .30. Make a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\). d. The true population proportion for this population is \(.34 .\) Which of the confidence intervals constructed in parts a through c cover this population proportion and which do not?

Because of inadequate public school budgets and lack of money available to teachers for classroom materials, many teachers often use their own money to buy materials used in the classrooms. A random sample of 100 public school teachers selected from an eastern state showed that they spent an average of \(\$ 273\) on such materials during the 2009 school year. The population standard deviation was \$60. a. What is the point estimate of the mean of such expenses incurred during the 2009 school year by all public school teachers in this state? b. Make a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the corresponding population mean.

You are working for a supermarket. The manager has asked you to estimate the mean time taken by a cashier to serve customers at this supermarket. Briefly explain how you will conduct this study. Collect data on the time taken by any supermarket cashier to serve 40 customers. Then estimate the population mean. Choose your own confidence level.

Inside the Box Corporation makes corrugated cardboard boxes. One type of these boxes states that the breaking capacity of this box is 75 pounds. Fifty-five randomly selected such boxes were loaded until they broke. The average breaking capacity of these boxes was found to be \(78.52\) pounds. Suppose that the standard deviation of the breaking capacities of all such boxes is \(2.63\) pounds. Calculate a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the average breaking capacity of all boxes of this type.

The high cost of health care is a matter of major concern for a large number of families. A random sample of 25 families selected from an area showed that they spend an average of \(\$ 253\) per month on health care with a standard deviation of \(\$ 47 .\) Make a \(98 \%\) confidence interval for the mean health care expenditure per month incurred by all families in this area. Assume that the monthly health care expenditures of all families in this area have a normal distribution.

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