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According to the U.S. Census Bureau's most recent data on the marital status of the 238 million Americans aged 15 years and older, \(123.7\) million are currently married and \(71.5\) million have never been married. If one person from these 238 million persons is selected at random, find the probability that this person is currently married or has never been married. Explain why this probability is not equal to \(1.0\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a person selected at random is currently married or has never been married is \(\frac{123.7}{238} + \frac{71.5}{238}\). The probability is not equal to 1.0 because not all people are either currently married or has never been married.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the probabilities of each event

First, identify the individual probabilities of each event. We have \(123.7\) million of \(238\) million people who are married. This gives us the probability of someone being married as \(\frac{123.7}{238}\). Similarly, \(71.5\) million of \(238\) million people have never been married. The probability of someone never being married is then \(\frac{71.5}{238}\).
02

Use the Addition Rule

The Addition Rule of Probability states that if two events \(A\) and \(B\) are mutually exclusive, then the probability of either \(A\) or \(B\) occurring is the sum of the probability of \(A\) and the probability of \(B\). Therefore, sum up the two probabilities calculated in Step 1 to get the final probability.
03

Discuss why the probability is not equal to 1.0

Lastly one needs to answer why the probability is not equal to 1. For the total probability to be 1, it would mean that all the people in the population are considered, that is, everyone is either married or never been married. However, in this case, the two groups (married and those who have never been married) do not make up the entire population. There are people who were married but currently are not, such as the divorced or widowed.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Addition Rule of Probability
Probability plays a crucial role in understanding the likelihood of different events occurring. The Addition Rule of Probability is a fundamental concept in probability theory. It helps us find the probability that at least one of several events will happen. To use the addition rule, it's important to understand whether the events in question are mutually exclusive.
If events are mutually exclusive, they cannot happen at the same time. For instance, a person cannot be both currently married and never been married simultaneously. When events are mutually exclusive, their probabilities can be added directly:
  • If event A has a probability of 0.5 (50% chance),
  • and event B has a probability of 0.3 (30% chance),
  • then the probability of either A or B occurring is 0.5 + 0.3 = 0.8 or 80%.
In the context given, calculating the probability of someone being either married or never married involves adding the probability of each separate event. However, these two events do not cover the entire set of outcomes, which we will explore further in the last section.
Marital Status Statistics
Marital status statistics can reveal insights about a population's social and demographic profile. By looking at statistics such as how many people are married or have never been married, we can infer changes in societal norms and behaviors.
In this exercise:
  • Out of 238 million Americans aged 15 and up, 123.7 million are currently married.
  • 71.5 million have never been married.
These figures allow us to calculate proportions and probabilities. For example, the probability of randomly selecting a person who is married is calculated as the number of married people divided by the total population (123.7/238). The same method applies to those who have never married (71.5/238). These figures are essential for planning and policy-making as they help understand the family structures within society.
U.S. Census Bureau Data
The U.S. Census Bureau is a principal agency in the United States Federal Statistical System. It is responsible for providing data about the American people, including demographics such as marital status, income, and education level.
The Census Bureau collects data every 10 years during the national census, but it also gathers annual data for a more continuous understanding. This data is crucial for researchers, policymakers, and businesses as it sheds light on trends and needs.
In our context: The data provides a snapshot of the American population's marital status, helping us to compute probabilities and understand various subgroups within the population. However, data is only as useful as the interpretation. The mentioned solution highlights that not all groups (e.g., divorced or widowed individuals) are represented fully in the initial calculation. This omission shows the importance of considering all population segments to get a complete picture.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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