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\(X \sim N(-3,4)\) Find the probability that \(x\) is between one and four.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that \(x\) is between 1 and 4 is approximately 0.1186.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Problem

We need to find the probability that a random variable, which follows a normal distribution with mean mu = -3 and standard deviation sigma = 4, takes on a value between 1 and 4.
02

Standardize the Values

To calculate the probability of a normal distribution, we convert the values to a standard normal distribution (Z-distribution). This involves calculating the Z-scores for the values 1 and 4 using the formula: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \] For X = 1: \[ Z_1 = \frac{1 - (-3)}{4} = \frac{4}{4} = 1 \] For X = 4: \[ Z_2 = \frac{4 - (-3)}{4} = \frac{7}{4} = 1.75 \]
03

Use the Standard Normal Distribution Table

Now that we have the Z-scores, determine the probability of Z being less than those scores by using the standard normal distribution table (or a calculator with this functionality). The probability that Z < 1 is approximately 0.8413 and that Z < 1.75 is approximately 0.9599.
04

Calculate the Probability P(1 < X < 4)

Now find the probability that X is between 1 and 4 by subtracting the lower tail from the upper tail. \[ P(1 < X < 4) = P(Z < 1.75) - P(Z < 1) \approx 0.9599 - 0.8413 = 0.1186 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z-scores
When working with normal distributions, a Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a data point's relationship to the mean of a group of points. If you have an observation and you want to know how far away it is from the average, Z-scores are your go-to tool.

Here’s how it works:
  • A Z-score tells you how many standard deviations an element is from the mean.
  • The Z-score formula is: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]where:
    • \(X\) is the value of the data point,
    • \(\mu\) is the mean,
    • \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
  • A Z-score of 0 indicates the value is exactly on the mean. Positive Z-scores indicate values above the mean, while negative Z-scores indicate values below it.
  • In our case, calculating the Z-scores for X = 1 (\(Z_1 = 1\)) and X = 4 (\(Z_2 = 1.75\)), helps us translate individual scores into a common framework for comparison.
Standard Normal Distribution Table
The Standard Normal Distribution Table, often called the Z-table, is a tool used to find probabilities related to the standard normal distribution. It's a calculated table that lists the cumulative probability of a standard normal variable being below a particular Z-score.

Using the Z-table:
  • This table allows us to determine the likelihood of a variable falling below a certain level on the bell curve.

    For instance, when you have a Z-score, the Z-table can help fetch the probability or the area under the curve up to that score.
  • For a Z-score of 1, the table gives a cumulative probability of approximately 0.8413, which implies there's an 84.13% chance the random variable is less than Z = 1.
  • Similarly, a Z-score of 1.75 results in a cumulative probability of 0.9599, or 95.99% chance the variable is less than this score.
The table typically covers values from zero up to a maximum Z, allowing you to calculate probabilities over specific score ranges by subtracting related probabilities.
Probability Calculation
Once you have your Z-scores and the corresponding probabilities from the Z-table, calculating the probability over a range becomes straightforward.

Steps include:
  • Identify your Z-scores for the considered range. For example, one Z-score for the lower limit (Z = 1) and one for the upper limit (Z = 1.75).
  • Use the probability values from the Z-table relevant to your Z-scores.

    From earlier, we have P(Z < 1) = 0.8413 and P(Z < 1.75) = 0.9599.
  • Subtract the probability of the lower limit from that of the upper limit: \[ P(1 < X < 4) = P(Z < 1.75) - P(Z < 1) \approx 0.9599 - 0.8413 = 0.1186 \]
This final result, 0.1186, represents the probability that the random variable falls between X = 1 and X = 4 in the given normal distribution model.
Standard Deviation and Mean
Understanding standard deviation and mean is crucial for interpreting normal distributions effectively.

Mean (\(\mu\)) and standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) fundamentals:
  • The mean is the average of all the data points, serving as a central point on the distribution.
  • Standard deviation measures how dispersed the data points are from the mean:
    • A smaller standard deviation indicates data points are tightly clustered around the mean.
    • A larger standard deviation means they are spread out over a wider range of values.
  • In our problem, the given mean, \(\mu\), is -3, and the standard deviation, \(\sigma\), is 4. This suggests most data will hover around -3, but it can reasonably spread out 4 units in either direction.
  • It is the combination of these two metrics that helps define the shape and spread of a distribution, giving context to our probability and Z-score calculations.

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