Chapter 5: Problem 85
The number of miles driven by a truck driver falls between 300 and 700, and follows a uniform distribution. a. Find the probability that the truck driver goes more than 650 miles in a day. b. Find the probability that the truck drivers goes between 400 and 650 miles in a day. c. At least how many miles does the truck driver travel on the furthest 10% of days?
Short Answer
Step by step solution
Understanding Uniform Distribution
Calculate Probability for Part (a)
Calculate Probability for Part (b)
Find the 90th Percentile for Part (c)
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Probability Density Function
For a uniform distribution, the function is represented by the formula: \[f(x) = \frac{1}{b-a}\] where \(a\) is the minimum and \(b\) is the maximum value within the range. If you picture a rectangle spanning from \(a\) to \(b\), the height of this rectangle represents the PDF. It's consistent as every outcome is equally likely, forming a flat, even probability across the interval.
- The total area under the PDF is 1, confirming that the probabilities of all possible outcomes sum up to a whole.
- Any segment of this PDF can help us calculate probability for different scenarios with ease.
Percentile Calculation
For a uniform distribution, the formula for calculating a percentile is quite straightforward:\[x_{p} = a + p \times (b-a)\]where \(x_{p}\) is the target percentile, and \(p\) is the desired percentile expressed as a decimal.
For instance, in the given problem, if we need to find the 90th percentile within the range of 300 to 700, it confirms that if a truck drives more than 660 miles, it ranks among the top 10% of daily mileages.
Uniform Probability
Consider the problem of determining probability that more than 650 miles are driven in a day. Using the principle of uniform probability, the chance is split evenly between the given range. Therefore, the calculation:\[P(X > 650) = \frac{b - 650}{b - a}\] At 50 miles spread over 400 total miles, results in a probability of 0.125 or 12.5%. This simple logic applies similarly to finding probabilities between any other intervals in the range.
Probability Calculation
In the exercise scenario, for instance, calculating the probability that a truck driver travels between 400 and 650 miles simplifies to:\[P(400 < X < 650) = \frac{650 - 400}{b - a} = \frac{250}{400} = 0.625\]This indicates a 62.5% chance, based on an even spread of probability across the values.
Uniform distribution often serves as the simplest model of a distribution, putting equal weight across a defined range of outcomes. This helps create a foundation to build upon for more complex probabilistic inquiries.