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Use the following information to answer the next five exercises. Two metal alloys are being considered as material for ball bearings. The mean melting point of the two alloys is to be compared. 15 pieces of each metal are being tested. Both populations have normal distributions. The following table is the result. It is believed that Alloy Zeta has a different melting point. $$\begin{array}{|l|l|l|}\hline & {\text { Sample Mean Melting Temperatures }\left(^{\circ} F\right)} & {\text { Population Standard Deviation }} \\\ \hline \text { Alloy Gamma } & {800}&{95} \\ \hline \text { Alloy zeta } & {900} &{105} \\ \hline\end{array}$$ What is the p-value?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The p-value is approximately 0.0062.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

Our goal is to test if there is a difference in the melting points of the two alloys. We set up the null hypothesis (H_0) as the difference in means being zero, \(\mu_1 - \mu_2 = 0\), and the alternative hypothesis (H_a) as the difference in means being not equal to zero, \(\mu_1 - \mu_2 eq 0\). This suggests a two-tailed test.
02

Determine the Test Statistic

Since both populations have normal distributions and we know the population standard deviations, we will use a Z-test for two means. The formula to calculate the test statistic \(z\) is: \[ z = \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)}{\sqrt{\frac{\sigma_1^2}{n_1} + \frac{\sigma_2^2}{n_2}}} \]Substituting in the values:\(\bar{x}_1 = 800\), \(\bar{x}_2 = 900\), \(\sigma_1 = 95\), \(\sigma_2 = 105\), \(n_1 = n_2 = 15\).
03

Compute the Test Statistic

Plugging in the values into the formula:\[ z = \frac{(800 - 900)}{\sqrt{\frac{95^2}{15} + \frac{105^2}{15}}} = \frac{-100}{\sqrt{\frac{9025}{15} + \frac{11025}{15}}}\]Calculate the values:\[z = \frac{-100}{\sqrt{601.67 + 735}} = \frac{-100}{\sqrt{1336.67}} \approx \frac{-100}{36.55} \approx -2.74\]
04

Determine the P-Value

The calculated \(z\) value is approximately \(-2.74\). The p-value is found by looking up the \(z\) value in the standard normal distribution table. Since this is a two-tailed test, we consider \(2\times\) the cumulative probability. Using a Z-table or calculator, \(P(Z < -2.74) \approx 0.0031\). Thus, the p-value \(\approx 2 \times 0.0031 = 0.0062\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z-test
The Z-test is a statistical tool used to determine whether there is a significant difference between the means of two populations. It is applicable when the population standard deviations are known and the data follows a normal distribution. This test is particularly useful for comparing sample means from large populations or when the population variance is unknown.

In the context of our exercise, we want to ascertain whether the two metal alloys have different average melting points. Given that both populations are normally distributed and we have their standard deviations, the Z-test is apt for our analysis.
  • The known standard deviations allow us to use the formula for the Z-test, making the analysis more straightforward.
  • The calculation involves the difference in sample means divided by the standard error of the mean difference. This is expressed mathematically as:
\[z = \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)}{\sqrt{\frac{\sigma_1^2}{n_1} + \frac{\sigma_2^2}{n_2}}}\]Understanding the Z-test is fundamental in hypothesis testing, especially when comparing two population means with known variances.
Two-tailed test
A two-tailed test in hypothesis testing checks for any significant difference in both directions between the means of two populations. In other words, it tests the possibility of an effect in both directions.

In our exercise, because we want to determine whether Alloy Zeta has a melting point that is simply different (higher or lower) than Alloy Gamma, a two-tailed test is required.
  • The null hypothesis posits that there is no difference, \( \mu_1 - \mu_2 = 0 \), which implies both alloys should hypothetically have the same average melting point.
  • The alternative hypothesis suggests there is a difference, indicated by \( \mu_1 - \mu_2 eq 0 \).
If the evidence supports the alternative hypothesis enough to reject the null, it implies a significant difference in melting points, supporting our claim that Alloy Zeta behaves differently.
Test statistic
The test statistic is a standardized value used in hypothesis testing to determine the relationship between sample data and the null hypothesis. It indicates how far our sample statistic is from the null hypothesis.

In our scenario, the test statistic is calculated using a Z-statistic due to the known standard deviations and normal distribution of the population.
  • This value quantifies the difference between the observed sample means and what is expected under the null hypothesis.
  • For our calculation, the test statistic was calculated as approximately -2.74. This negative value indicates that the mean melting point of Alloy Gamma is less than that of Alloy Zeta.
Interpreting the test statistic helps determine the likelihood of our sample data under the null hypothesis, further informing us about whether it should be rejected.
P-value
P-value is a crucial aspect of hypothesis testing, representing the probability of obtaining a test statistic as extreme as the one observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.

In our exercise, the p-value is calculated after obtaining the standardized test statistic (z-value). Specifically, for a two-tailed Z-test like ours:
  • The p-value assists in quantifying the evidence against the null hypothesis, showing how likely it is to observe data under the assumption that there is no effect.
  • Our calculated p-value is approximately 0.0062, reflecting the probability of observing such a difference, or more extreme, by chance alone.
A smaller p-value typically instigates the rejection of the null hypothesis, suggesting that there is indeed a significant difference in the melting points of the alloys. The low p-value here strongly indicates Alloy Zeta's distinct behavior in terms of melting point.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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