/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 15 A report five years ago stated t... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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A report five years ago stated that \(35.5 \%\) of all state-owned bridges in a particular state were "deficient." An advocacy group took a random sample of 100 state-owned bridges in the state and found 33 to be currently rated as being "deficient." Test whether the current proportion of bridges in such condition is \(35.5 \%\) versus the alternative that it is different from \(35.5 \%,\) at the \(10 \%\) level of significance.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The current proportion of deficient bridges is not significantly different from 35.5%.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Hypotheses

Formulate the null hypothesis \( H_0 \) and the alternative hypothesis \( H_1 \). Here, the null hypothesis is \( H_0: p = 0.355 \) and the alternative hypothesis is \( H_1: p eq 0.355 \), where \( p \) represents the current proportion of deficient bridges.
02

Collect the Sample Data

From the problem statement, we have a sample size \( n = 100 \) and the number of deficient bridges found in the sample is 33, giving us a sample proportion \( \hat{p} = \frac{33}{100} = 0.33 \).
03

Calculate the Test Statistic

The formula for the test statistic for a proportion is \( z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0 (1 - p_0)}{n}}} \). Substitute the values: \( p_0 = 0.355 \), \( \hat{p} = 0.33 \), \( n = 100 \). Thus, we have \( z = \frac{0.33 - 0.355}{\sqrt{\frac{0.355 \times (1 - 0.355)}{100}}} \approx -0.468 \).
04

Determine the Critical Value and Decision Rule

For a two-tailed test at a \(10\%\) level of significance, the critical z-values are \( \pm 1.645 \) (since \(5\%\) in each tail). We reject the null hypothesis if the computed z-value falls outside the range of -1.645 to 1.645.
05

Make a Decision

Since the calculated \( z \approx -0.468 \) falls within the interval \(-1.645 \leq z \leq 1.645\), we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
06

Conclusion

There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the current proportion of deficient bridges is different from \(35.5\%\) at the \(10\%\) level of significance.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis, denoted as \( H_0 \), is a statement that there is no effect or no difference in the situation being tested. It represents the default position that any observed effect is due to random chance. In the context of our bridge deficiency problem, the null hypothesis is that the current proportion of deficient bridges is \(35.5\%\).This translates mathematically to \( H_0: p = 0.355 \), where \( p \) is the parameter of interest representing the true proportion of deficient bridges in the population. The purpose of the null hypothesis is to provide a benchmark against which the actual data can be compared. If the null hypothesis is true, any deviation in our sample would be considered random. The null hypothesis is assumed to be true until evidence suggests otherwise.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a single calculated value from sample data used to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. It acts like a bridge between the sample data and the hypothesis being tested.For a proportion, the test statistic \( z \) can be calculated using the formula:\[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0 (1 - p_0)}{n}}} \]Where:
  • \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion.
  • \( p_0 \) is the proportion stated in the null hypothesis.
  • \( n \) is the sample size.
In our bridge example, substituting the values \( \hat{p} = 0.33 \), \( p_0 = 0.355 \), and \( n = 100 \) into the formula, we get \( z \approx -0.468 \). This value tells us how far the sample proportion is from the null hypothesis proportion, measured in standard deviation units.
Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted as \( \alpha \), is a threshold set by the researcher to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. It's often expressed as a percentage and represents the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (Type I error).In many studies, common significance levels are \(5\%\), \(1\%\), and \(10\%\).For our case study, we are using a \(10\%\) significance level. This means there is a \(10\%\) risk of concluding that there is a difference in proportion of bridge deficiencies when there actually isn't one. It's a compromise between being too lenient (high risk of false positives) and too strict (high risk of false negatives). At this level, you determine the critical boundaries for your test statistic.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is an estimate of the true population proportion based on a sample. It gives an idea about the ratio of defective bridges in our sampled group.Mathematically, this is calculated as:\[ \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n}\]Where:
  • \( x \) is the number of successes (in this instance, bridges labeled deficient).
  • \( n \) is the total number of observations or trials (sample size).
In our bridge deficiency scenario, the group surveyed consisted of \(100\) bridges, with \(33\) identified as deficient. Therefore, \( \hat{p} = \frac{33}{100} = 0.33 \). This sample proportion is crucial for calculating the test statistic and helping to determine if there's evidence to refute the null hypothesis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

An economist wishes to determine whether people are driving less than in the past. In one region of the country the number of miles driven per household per year in the past was 18.59 thousand miles. A sample of 15 households produced a sample mean of 16.23 thousand miles for the last year, with sample standard deviation 4.06 thousand miles. Assuming a normal distribution of household driving distances per year, perform the relevant test at the \(5 \%\) level of significance.

State the null and alternative hypotheses for each of the following situations. (That is, identify the correct number \(\mu_{0}\) and write \(H_{0} \mu=\mu_{0}\) and the appropriate analogous expression for \(H_{a}\).) a. The average time workers spent commuting to work in Verona five years ago was 38.2 minutes. The Verona Chamber of Commerce asserts that the average is less now. b. The mean salary for all men in a certain profession is \(\$ 58,291\). A special interest group thinks that the mean salary for women in the same profession is different. c. The accepted figure for the caffeine content of an 8 -ounce cup of coffee is \(133 \mathrm{mg}\). A dietitian believes that the average for coffee served in a local restaurants is higher. d. The average yield per acre for all types of corn in a recent year was 161.9 bushels. An economist believes that the average yield per acre is different this year. e. An industry association asserts that the average age of all self-described fly fishermen is 42.8 years. A sociologist suspects that it is higher.

The recommended daily calorie intake for teenage girls is 2,200 calories/day. A nutritionist at a state university believes the average daily caloric intake of girls in that state to be lower. Test that hypothesis, at the \(5 \%\) level of significance, against the null hypothesis that the population average is 2,200 calories/day using the following sample data: \(n=36, x-2,150, s=203\).

Two years ago \(72 \%\) of household in a certain county regularly participated in recycling household waste. The county government wishes to investigate whether that proportion has increased after an intensive campaign promoting recycling. In a survey of 900 households, 674 regularly participate in recycling. Perform the relevant test at the \(10 \%\) level of significance.

A lawyer believes that a certain judge imposes prison sentences for property crimes that are longer than the state average 11.7 months. He randomly selects 36 of the judge's sentences and obtains mean 13.8 and standard deviation 3.9 months. a. Perform the test at the \(1 \%\) level of significance using the critical value approach. b. Compute the observed significance of the test. c. Perform the test at the \(1 \%\) level of significance using the \(p\) -value approach. You need not repeat the first three steps, already done in part (a).

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