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The authors of the paper "Deception and Design: The Impact of Communication Technology on Lying Behavior" (Proceedings of Computer Human Interaction [2004]) asked 30 students in an upper division communications course at a large university to keep a journal for 7 days, recording each social interaction and whether or not they told any lies during that interaction. A lie was defined as "any time you intentionally try to mislead someone." The paper reported that the mean number of lies per day for the 30 students was \(1.58\) and the standard deviation of number of lies per day was \(1.02 .\) a. What assumption must be made in order for the \(t\) confidence interval of this section to be an appropriate method for estimating \(\mu\), the mean number of lies per day for all students at this university? b. Would you recommend using the \(t\) confidence interval to construct an estimate of \(\mu\) as defined in Part (a)? Explain why or why not.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) The assumption necessary for using a 't' confidence interval is that the data is independently and randomly sampled from a normally distributed population. \n b) A recommendation to use the 't' confidence interval to estimate the population mean requires more information about the distribution of the data and the sampling method. There is an implied assumption of independence in the number of student lies, but without knowing more about how the students were selected for the study or how their lied distributed, it would be premature to commit to a recommendation.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Assumptions for a t Confidence Interval

The assumption that must be made to justify the use of the 't' confidence interval method is that the samples being examined are independently and randomly selected from a population that approximates a normal distribution. In other words, the daily number of lies told by students should roughly follow a normal distribution.
02

Should We Recommend a t Confidence Interval

To recommend using a 't' confidence interval to estimate the mean number of lies, we need to evaluate if our data satisfies the conditions. This includes: 1) random sampling, 2) the sample size is sufficiently large (typically >30 is a rule of thumb, but with advanced technologies, smaller sizes can be accepted if nearly normally distributed). The question doesn't provide enough information about the shape of the distribution. We know sample size is 30 which is borderline. We should obtain more data on the distribution of daily lies before making a recommendation. There is an implied assumption of random sampling since students are not likely 'chosen' to lie, and the decisions to lie are likely independent. However, without knowing more about how students were selected to keep journals, random sampling is not guaranteed.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistical Assumptions
Understanding the statistical assumptions is fundamental when it comes to analyzing data and making inferences about a population. These assumptions provide the foundation for the validity of statistical methods, such as the calculation of a confidence interval.

For a t confidence interval specifically, one key assumption is that the data are independently and randomly selected from the population. This means that the choice of one individual in the study does not influence the choice of another, and each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected. In the context of the exercise, this random selection ensures that the students' reported number of lies on a daily basis is not influenced by each other.

Another important assumption is that the population from which samples are drawn follows a normal distribution, at least approximately. The normal distribution assumption allows us to use the central limit theorem which states that, as sample size increases, the distribution of the sample means will approach a normal distribution, regardless of the population's distribution. This is critical because the t distribution, which the t confidence interval is based on, assumes normality in the underlying population data.
Normal Distribution
The bell-shaped curve of the normal distribution is one of the most recognized symbols in statistics. The normal distribution is symmetric about the mean, meaning that data near the mean occur more frequently than data far from the mean.

When we assert that a data set follows a normal distribution, we're claiming that the pattern of the data points follows this common curve. For the upper division communications course students, assuming a normal distribution implies that most students would tell a number of lies close to the mean, with fewer students telling many more or many fewer lies.

However, the normal distribution is an ideal. Real-world data do not always fit perfectly into this shape. That's where the Central Limit Theorem helps by allowing sample means to be normally distributed, even if the underlying population is not, provided that the sample size is large enough. This is crucial since it ensures that statistical methods, like the t confidence interval, are applicable.
Random Sampling
Random sampling is the process of selecting a subset of individuals from a statistical population in such a way that every individual has an equal chance of being included. This method is central to generating unbiased and representative samples.

In our example regarding the students' lying behavior, the exercise implies that the sampling might have been random, since individuals typically do not influence each other's decision to lie. However, without comprehensive information on the procedure used to recruit the students for journaling, we cannot be certain that the sample is truly random.

The lack of guaranteed randomness is a potential limitation. If, for example, only certain types of students chose to participate, or if the students were all from one particular social group, the sample might not represent the broader population. Random sampling helps to protect against these types of sampling biases and ensures that the results can be more confidently generalized to the entire population.
Sample Size
Sample size plays a decisive role in statistical analyses. It influences the confidence one can have in the inferential statistics derived from the data, such as the confidence interval.

A larger sample size generally leads to more precise estimates of population parameters, as it's likely to provide a better approximation of the population. Conversely, a small sample size can lead to wider confidence intervals and less certainty in estimates. The problem stated a sample size of 30 students, which is considered the minimum for assuming a normal distribution of the sample mean according to the Central Limit Theorem.

However, even when the sample size is at this minimum threshold, it's imperative to check for the underlying distribution of the data. If the data are heavily skewed or have outliers, then a larger sample size might be necessary to justify the use of a t confidence interval. In conclusion, while the sample size of 30 students falls at the cusp of acceptability, exercising caution and exploring the distribution further would be advisable before firmly concluding.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The article "Consumers Show Increased Liking for Diesel Autos" (USA Today. January 29,2003 ) reported that \(27 \%\) of U.S. consumers would opt for a diesel car if it ran as cleanly and performed as well as a car with a gas engine. Suppose that you suspect that the proportion might be different in your area and that you want to conduct a survey to estimate this proportion for the adult residents of your city. What is the required sample size if you want to estimate this proportion to within \(.05\) with \(95 \%\) confidence? Compute the required sample size first using \(.27\) as a preliminary estimate of \(p\) and then using the conservative value of \(.5 .\) How do the two sample sizes compare? What sample size would you recommend for this study?

Data consistent with summary quantities in the article referenced in Exercise \(9.3\) on total calorie consumption on a particular day are given for a sample of children who did not eat fast food on that day and for a sample of children who did eat fast food on that day. Assume that it is reasonable to regard these samples as representative of the population of children in the United States. $$\begin{aligned} &\text { No Fast Food }\\\ &\begin{array}{llllllll} 2331 & 1918 & 1009 & 1730 & 1469 & 2053 & 2143 & 1981 \\ 1852 & 1777 & 1765 & 1827 & 1648 & 1506 & 2669 & \end{array} \end{aligned}$$ $$\begin{aligned} &\text { Fast Food } \\ &\begin{array}{rrrrrrrr} 2523 & 1758 & 934 & 2328 & 2434 & 2267 & 2526 & 1195 \\ 890 & 1511 & 875 & 2207 & 1811 & 1250 & 2117 & \end{array} \end{aligned}$$ a. Use the given information to estimate the mean calorie intake for children in the United States on a day when no fast food is consumed. b. Use the given information to estimate the mean calorie intake for children in the United States on a day when fast food is consumed. c. Use the given information to produce estimates of the standard deviations of calorie intake for days when no fast food is consumed and for days when fast food is consumed.

In an AP-AOL sports poll (Assodated Press. December 18,2005\(), 394\) of 1000 randomly selected U.S. adults indicated that they considered themselves to be baseball fans. Of the 394 baseball fans, 272 stated that they thought the designated hitter rule should either be expanded to both baseball leagues or eliminated. a. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of U.S. adults who consider themselves to be baseball fans. b. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of those who consider themselves to be baseball fans who think the designated hitter rule should be expanded to both leagues or eliminated. c. Explain why the confidence intervals of Parts (a) and (b) are not the same width even though they both have a confidence level of \(95 \%\).

The article “Kids Digital Day: Almost 8 Hours" (USA Today, January 20,2010 ) summarized results from a national survey of 2002 Americans age 8 to 18 . The sample was selected in a way that was expected to result in a sample representative of Americans in this age group. a. Of those surveyed, 1321 reported owning a cell phone. Use this information to construct and interpret a \(90 \%\) confidence interval estimate of the proportion of all Americans age 8 to 18 who own a cell phone. b. Of those surveyed, 1522 reported owning an MP3 music player. Use this information to construct and interpret a \(90 \%\) confidence interval estimate of the proportion of all Americans age 8 to 18 who own an MP3 music player. c. Explain why the confidence interval from Part (b) is narrower than the confidence interval from Part (a) even though the confidence level and the sample size used to compute the two intervals was the same.

The article "The Association Between Television Viewing and Irregular Sleep Schedules Among Children Less Than 3 Years of Age" (Pediatrics [2005]: \(851-856\) ) reported the accompanying \(95 \%\) confidence intervals for average TV viewing time (in hours per day) for three different age groups. $$\begin{array}{lc} \text { Age Group } & 95 \% \text { Confidence Interval } \\ \hline \text { Less than } 12 \text { months } & (0.8,1.0) \\ 12 \text { to } 23 \text { months } & (1.4,1.8) \\ 24 \text { to } 35 \text { months } & (2.1,2.5) \\ \hline \end{array}$$ a. Suppose that the sample sizes for each of the three age group samples were equal. Based on the given confidence intervals, which of the age group samples had the greatest variability in TV viewing time? Explain your choice. b. Now suppose that the sample standard deviations for the three age group samples were equal, but that the three sample sizes might have been different. Which of the three age-group samples had the largest sample size? Explain your choice. c. The interval \((.768,1.032)\) is either a \(90 \%\) confidence interval or a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the mean TV viewing time computed using the sample data for children less than 12 months old. Is the confidence level for this interval \(90 \%\) or \(99 \%\) ? Explain your choice.

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