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The Los Angeles Times (December 13,1992\()\) reported that what airline passengers like to do most on long flights is rest or sleep; in a survey of 3697 passengers, almost \(80 \%\) did so. Suppose that for a particular route the actual percentage is exactly \(80 \%\), and consider randomly selecting six passengers. Then \(x\), the number among the selected six who rested or slept, is a binomial random variable with \(n=6\) and \(p=.8\). a. Calculate \(p(4)\), and interpret this probability. b. Calculate \(p(6)\), the probability that all six selected passengers rested or slept. c. Determine \(P(x \geq 4)\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that exactly 4 passengers rested or slept is given by \(p(4)\), while the probability that all 6 passengers rested or slept is calculated by \(p(6)\). The probability that 4 or more passengers rested or slept is determined by \(P(x \geq 4)\), which can be calculated as the sum of \(p(4)\), \(p(5)\), and \(p(6)\).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem and Identify Variables

The problem describes a binomial distribution with parameters \(n=6\) and \(p=0.8\). Variable \(x\) represents the number of successes (in this case, passengers who rest or sleep). For part a, we are asked to find the probability when \(x=4\) (four passengers rested or slept). For part b, we are asked to find the probability when all \(x=6\) rested or slept. For part c, we are asked to find the cumulative probability when \(x\) is greater than or equal to 4.
02

Calculate \(p(4)\)

The probability mass function of a binomial distribution is given by: \[p(k; n, p) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^{n-k}\] Here, \(C(n, k)\) represents 'n choose k', which is the number of combinations of n items taken k at a time. Plug the values \(n=6\), \(p=0.8\), \(k=4\) to the above formula, that gives the probability for exactly 4 passengers rested or slept.
03

Calculate \(p(6)\)

Plug the values \(n=6\), \(p=0.8\), \(k=6\) into the formula mentioned in the previous step. This will give the probability for all six passengers rested or slept.
04

Calculate \(P(x \geq 4)\)

\(P( x \geq 4)\) means the sum of probabilities when \(x\) is equal to 4, 5 and 6. In other words, sum of \(p(4)\), \(p(5)\), and \(p(6)\). So, we need to calculate these values and making a sum of them will give us exact \(P(x \geq 4)\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Mass Function
The probability mass function (PMF) is fundamental in understanding the binomial distribution. It is a mathematical function that provides the probability that a discrete random variable is exactly equal to some value.

In the given exercise, we have the binomial distribution — a classic type of PMF — which is determined when we know the number of trials (), the number of successes () we are interested in, and the probability of success in a single trial ().

For our particular problem, the PMF formula takes the form: [pmf(k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^{n-k}], where [pmf(k)] is the probability of observing exactly successes, [ p ] is the success probability, [ C(n, k) ] is the combination of items taken at a time, and [ k ] is the number of successes out of trials.

This function is especially useful because it quantifies the likelihood of individual outcomes for a binomial random variable, such as the number of passengers resting or sleeping in our example.
Cumulative Probability
Cumulative probability, in the context of a binomial distribution, refers to the probability that the binomial random variable is less than or equal to a particular value. It's essentially the sum of the probabilities for all outcomes up to and including that value.

Calculating cumulative probability is like adding up the chances of a certain event happening, step by step, until you reach a total. In our passenger example, calculating [P(x [geq]] 4) involves summing the probabilities of there being exactly four, exactly five, and exactly six passengers resting or sleeping.

To find this sum, use the PMF for each of the values ([pmf(4)], [pmf(5)], and [pmf(6)]), and add them together: [P(x [geq]] 4) = pmf(4) + pmf(5) + pmf(6)].

This cumulative value is essential when assessing the likelihood of a range of outcomes and helps to provide a more complete picture of the possible scenarios in a binomially distributed event.
Binomial Random Variable
A binomial random variable represents the number of successes in a set number of independent trials in an experiment with a binary outcome — typically 'success' or 'failure'.

In our exercise, the binomial random variable () is the number of passengers who rested or slept during the flight, out of the six passengers sampled. The parameter () defines the number of trials (or passengers in our case), and () is the probability of a passenger resting or sleeping.

A binomial random variable's distinct characteristics are what make it binomial: fixed number of trials (), only two possible outcomes in each trial, same probability of success (()) in each trial, and independence between the trials. These conditions mean that each passenger's choice to rest or sleep is independent of others and remains consistent throughout the sampling.

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