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A restaurant has four bottles of a certain wine in stock. Unbeknownst to the wine steward, two of these bottles (Bottles 1 and 2 ) are bad. Suppose that two bottles are ordered, and let \(x\) be the number of good bottles among these two. a. One possible experimental outcome is \((1,2)\) (Bottles 1 and 2 are the ones selected) and another is \((2,4)\). List all possible outcomes. b. Assuming that the two bottles are randomly selected from among the four, what is the probability of each outcome in Part (a)? c. The value of \(x\) for the \((1,2)\) outcome is 0 (neither selected bottle is good), and \(x=1\) for the outcome \((2,4) .\) Determine the \(x\) value for each possible outcome. Then use the probabilities in Part (b) to determine the probability distribution of \(x\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability distribution of 'x' (number of good bottles selected) is P(X=0)=1/6, P(X=1)=2/3, P(X=2)=1/6

Step by step solution

01

List all possible outcomes

When we select 2 bottles out of 4, all possible outcomes are \((1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(2,3),(2,4),(3,4)\)
02

Determine the Probability of each outcome

As we have 4 bottles, and we are choosing 2, there are \(\binom{4}{2} = 6\) possible ways. Hence, the probability of each outcome will be \(\frac{1}{6}\)
03

Determine 'x' value for each outcome and their probability distributions

For \((1,2)\), x=0 because both bottles are bad. For \((1,3),(1,4),(2,3), and (2,4)\) , x=1 because one bottle out of the pair is good while the other one is bad. For \((3,4)\), x=2 because both bottles are good. Therefore, the probability distribution of X is: P(X=0)=\(\frac{1}{6}\), P(X=1)= \(\frac{4}{6}\) = \(\frac{2}{3}\), and P(X=2)= \(\frac{1}{6}\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Experimental Outcomes
Understanding experimental outcomes is crucial for grasping the basics of statistical probability. An experimental outcome is the result obtained from a single trial of an experiment. In the context of our exercise, each pair of wine bottles chosen represents a unique experimental outcome. These outcomes are discrete and can be listed, as in the exercise where all possible pairings of the four bottles are considered, resulting in combinations like (1,2) or (2,4).

To visualize this in a real-world context, we can imagine laying out the four bottles and then selecting two, recording our choice each time without replacement. By systematically pairing each bottle with the others, we account for all possible outcomes. This method is crucial in ensuring that our probability calculations later on are based on a complete set of possible events.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics, often considered a subfield of mathematics, deals with the study of counting and arranging objects. In terms of the given exercise, combinatorics helps in determining the number of ways in which a certain number of objects can be chosen from a larger set, without regard to the order in which they are selected. This is often referred to as a combination.

The exercise mentioned uses the binomial coefficient, denoted as \(\binom{n}{k}\), which represents the number of ways to choose \(k\) items from \(n\) items without considering the order. In the solution, we used \(\binom{4}{2}\) to calculate the 6 different outcomes when two bottles are selected from the four available bottles. Understanding combinatorics is vital in many areas of mathematics and helps in creating a foundation for evaluating probabilities of various combinations.
Probability Theory
Probability theory is fundamental to understanding how likely events are to occur. It's the branch of mathematics that deals with the analysis of random phenomena. The basic principle is that probability is measured on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates impossibility, and 1 represents certainty.

In our wine bottle example, probability theory frames our approach to finding the likelihood of each experimental outcome. From the combinatorial calculations, we know there are 6 possible pairs of bottles. Assuming each outcome is equally likely, each pair then has a probability of \(\frac{1}{6}\). Maintaining a structured approach is essential to simplify complex problems into more manageable calculations, ensuring accuracy and comprehensibility for students.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a cornerstone of probability theory, especially suited for scenarios with two distinct outcomes, often termed 'success' and 'failure.' It's expressly relevant when we deal with a fixed number of trials, and each trial is independent of the others.

In the context of our problem, the 'trials' are the selections of the bottles, and the 'success' could be selecting a good bottle, while 'failure' would be selecting a bad one. The probabilities previously calculated directly feed into the binomial distribution, which in this case helps us understand the likelihood of selecting 0, 1, or 2 good bottles. This probability distribution allows for a clear representation of the random variable \(X\), where \(X\) is the number of good bottles selected. With these values, students can grasp the concept of the binomial distribution and apply it to similar problems.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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