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In 2000, the chairman of a California ballot initiative campaign to add "none of the above" to the list of ballot options in all candidate races was quite critical of a Field poll that showed his measure trailing by 10 percentage points. The poll was based on a random sample of 1000 registered voters in California. He is quoted by the Associated Press (January 30,2000 ) as saying, "Field's sample in that poll equates to one out of 17,505 voters," and he added that this was so dishonest that Field should get out of the polling business! If you worked on the Field poll, how would you respond to this criticism?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The quality and representativeness of a sample do not solely depend on its ratio to the population size but rather on how it is collected. In this case, the sample was randomly drawn making it theoretically representative of all voters irrespective of its smaller size compared to the population. Furthermore, a sample size of 1,000 is statistically large enough to make valid inferences about population parameters.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the concept of a sample

In statistics, a sample is a subset of a population that is used to represent the entire group as a whole. When chosen correctly, a sample should accurately reflect the population in terms of key characteristics and behavior.
02

Interpret the meaning of a random sample

A random sample means every member of the population has an equal chance of being included in the sample. Therefore, the sample would be representative of the population despite its size.
03

Understand the criticism

The chairman's criticism is based on his interpretation of the ratio between the sample size and the population size. According to him, 1 out of every 17,505 voters was included in the sample.
04

Formulate a response

In response to the criticism, it can be explained that the correctness and representativeness of a sample do not purely depend on the ratio of the sample size to the population size. What's more important is how the sample is collected. In the case of the Field poll, the sample was randomly drawn, which means that it's theoretically representative of all voters in California. Moreover, the sample size of 1,000 is large enough to make statistically valid inferences, given the concept of the Central Limit Theorem which suggests that a sample size larger than 30 is often sufficient to analyze population parameters.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Sampling
Random sampling is a fundamental technique in statistics used to obtain a representative subset of a larger population. The aim is to ensure each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected, making it a fair and unbiased process. For example, let's say we have a large group of people and we want to understand the average height. By using random sampling, we might choose individuals through a random method, such as a lottery system.

In the case of the Field poll, random sampling was employed to select 1,000 registered voters. This method counters the chairman's critique because even though each selected individual represents a larger number of voters, the randomness of the selection process gives us confidence that the sample mirrors the voting population fairly accurately.
Sample Size
Sample size is crucial in determining the accuracy and reliability of the statistical results. A common misconception is that the sample size must be a large fraction of the total population to be valid. However, this isn't always the case; what truly matters is that the sample is large enough to capture the variability in the population. A classic example within statistics is that a sample size of 30 or more is generally considered sufficient for the Central Limit Theorem to hold, which helps to make inferences about the population.

In defense of the Field poll, a sample size of 1,000 registered voters is typically more than enough to ensure that the variability of the voters' opinions is well-accounted for. This means that conclusions drawn from analyzing this sample are likely to be robust and representative.
Population Representation
Population representation in a sample ensures that the characteristics of the sample closely match those of the entire group. The goal is for the sample to act as a small-scale version of the population. This concept matters because it's the foundation for making broader generalizations from the sample data. If the sample isn't representative, results may be biased.

For the Field poll, population representation would mean that the selected 1,000 voters reflect various demographics, opinions, and behaviors of all registered voters in California. Although the chairman suggests that the small number relative to the entire voter base is insufficient, the representativeness is not dictated by mere numbers, but rather by how well the sample encompasses the population's diversity.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a statistical theory that explains how the distribution of sample means becomes more normally distributed as the sample size increases. This theorem is essential because it allows statisticians to make inferences about population parameters, even when the population distribution is unknown. According to the CLT, if you take sufficiently large random samples from a population, the means of those samples will form a normal distribution.

In relation to the Field poll scenario, the CLT supports the argument that a sample of 1,000 is adequate. The poll's sample size far exceeds the minimum required for the CLT to apply, thus reinforcing the poll's reliability. This is a compelling defense against criticism pertaining to the adequacy of the sample size, indicating that the poll's results are statistically sound.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

For each of the situations described, state whether the sampling procedure is simple random sampling, stratified random sampling, cluster sampling, systematic sampling, or convenience sampling. a. All first-year students at a university are enrolled in 1 of 30 sections of a seminar course. To select a sample of freshmen at this university, a researcher selects four sections of the seminar course at random from the 30 sections and all students in the four selected sections are included in the sample. b. To obtain a sample of students, faculty, and staff at a university, a researcher randomly selects 50 faculty members from a list of faculty, 100 students from a list of students, and 30 staff members from a list of staff. c. A university researcher obtains a sample of students at his university by using the 85 students enrolled in his Psychology 101 class. d. To obtain a sample of the seniors at a particular high school, a researcher writes the name of each senior on a slip of paper, places the slips in a box and mixes them, and then selects 10 slips. The students whose names are on the selected slips of paper are included in the sample. e. To obtain a sample of those attending a basketball game, a researcher selects the 24 th person through the door. Then, every 50 th person after that is also included in the sample.

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