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Suppose that a group of 1000 orange trees is laid out in 40 rows of 25 trees each. To determine the sugar content of fruit from a sample of 30 trees, researcher \(\mathrm{A}\) suggests randomly selecting five rows and then randomly selecting six trees from each sampled row. Researcher B suggests numbering each tree on a map of the trees from 1\. to 1000 and using random numbers to select 30 of the trees. Which selection method is preferred? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Researcher B's method of using simple random sampling is preferred because it ensures each tree has an equal chance of being selected, making the sample representative of the entire population, and avoiding potential bias.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Researcher A's proposal

Researcher A suggests selecting five rows at random, and then choosing six trees from each of these rows. This method is called cluster sampling. In cluster sampling, the population is divided into groups, or clusters, and a random sample of these clusters are selected. All observations in the selected clusters are included in the sample.
02

Understand Researcher B's proposal

Researcher B suggests numbering each tree from 1 to 1000, and then using random numbers to choose 30 of the trees. This method is known as simple random sampling. In a simple random sample, every individual (or tree, in this case) has an equal probability of being selected.
03

Evaluation of the methods

In the case of Researcher A's proposal, the selection is not entirely random because trees from the same row might be similar to each other due to environmental factors like sunlight, soil quality and water availability. This could lead to biased results. On the other hand, Researcher B's method ensures that every tree has an equal chance of being selected which makes the sample representative of the whole population. Therefore, Researcher B's method is more preferred in this case because it avoids potential bias.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Cluster Sampling
Cluster Sampling is a technique where the population is divided into smaller groups known as clusters. In many cases, these groups are naturally occurring, such as rows in a field of crops or neighborhoods in a city. In this sampling method, entire clusters are selected at random, and then either all or a random sample of individuals within those clusters are chosen for data collection.

- **Advantages**: Cluster sampling can be more cost-effective and time-efficient, especially when dealing with large populations scattered over a wide area. It eliminates the need to survey every individual in the entire population by focusing only on select clusters.
- **Disadvantages**: The main drawback of cluster sampling is the risk of bias. Since clusters are often situated in proximity, characteristics within a cluster—like the trees in a row—might be less diverse, introducing homogeneity and potentially skewing results. The method requires careful selection to ensure clusters are both representative and diverse.

In the orange trees exercise, Researcher A's approach of selecting rows as clusters could lead to similar trees being sampled, thus risking a non-representative sample.
Simple Random Sampling
Simple Random Sampling is a fundamental method of probability sampling where each member of the population has an equal chance of being included in the sample. This method is straightforward and often utilized to ensure that every subgroup of the population has the same likelihood of selection.

- **Procedure**: To implement this method, every individual is assigned a unique number. Random numbers are then used, typically generated by a computer or drawn from a random number table, to determine which individuals are chosen.
- **Benefits**: This technique minimizes selection bias, leading to a selection that is representative of the population. It's simple to understand and implement, making it highly effective for small to moderately sized populations.

In the exercise featuring orange trees, Researcher B's method aligns with simple random sampling by numbering each tree and randomly selecting 30. This process ensures every tree, regardless of location, has an equal chance of being chosen, which helps prevent bias and offers a good representation of the total population.
Bias in Sampling
Bias in Sampling occurs when certain members of a population have a higher or lower chance of being selected, resulting in a sample that might not be representative of the population as a whole. Bias can obscure the true characteristics of the population, leading to incorrect conclusions.

- **Types of Bias**: Common types include selection bias, where the method of choosing participants influences results, and response bias, where participants may not answer questions truthfully or fully.
- **Causes of Bias**: Inadequate randomization, non-representative sampling frames, or environmental factors (like trees getting different sunlight) can introduce bias.

In the scenario with orange trees, Researcher A's cluster method runs the risk of bias because trees within the same row might share environmental conditions, making them more similar to each other than to trees in other rows. Researcher B's simple random sampling minimizes bias as it gives every tree an equal chance of being selected, producing a more diverse and accurate sample of the population.

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