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According to a Washington Post- \(A B C\) News poll, 331 of 502 randomly selected U.S. adults interviewed said they would not be bothered if the National Security Agency collected records of personal telephone calls they had made. Is there sufficient evidence to conclude that a majority of U.S. adults feel this way? Test the appropriate hypotheses using a \(.01\) significance level.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Based on the hypothesis test at a 0.01 significance level, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the majority of U.S. adults wouldn't be bothered if the NSA collected records of personal phone calls.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Question

The aim is to determine if there is enough evidence to conclude that a majority of U.S. adults would not be bothered if the NSA collected records of personal phone calls they've made. This is a question of hypothesis testing about a population proportion. The null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) is that the proportion of adults not bothered (p) is 0.50 (50%) and the alternate hypothesis (\(H_1\)) is that the proportion of adults not bothered (p) is greater than 0.50 (50%). We're given that our significance level (\(\alpha\)) is 0.01.
02

Calculate Test Statistic

We first calculate our sample proportion (\(\hat{p}\)) which equals the number of successes (adults not bothered) divided by the sample size. So, \(\hat{p} = 331/502 = 0.6594\). The next task is to calculate the test statistic which equals \(Z = (\hat{p} - p_0)/\sqrt{(p_0 * (1 - p_0))/n}\) where \(p_0\) is the assumed population proportion under the null hypothesis and n is the sample size. Here, \(Z = (0.6594 - 0.50)/ \sqrt{(0.50 * (1 - 0.50))/502} = 9.4846\).
03

Reject or Fail to Reject Null Hypothesis

Using a standard Z-table or a Z-score calculator, we find that the p-value associated with our test statistic (Z = 9.4846) is less than our significance level of .01. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis. This suggests that there is sufficient evidence to support the claim that a majority of U.S. adults feel the same way

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
In statistics, when we're talking about the population proportion, we refer to the fraction of the population that possesses a particular characteristic. In this given exercise, the characteristic is whether U.S. adults would not be bothered by the NSA collecting records of personal telephone calls. To estimate population proportion, we often rely on a sample from that population. The sample gives us a snapshot, a miniature view of what the entire population may look like, enabling us to make inferences. - In the context of the exercise, the provided sample proportion is given by the division of those in favor (331) by the total number surveyed (502). So, the calculated sample proportion i.e., \( \hat{p} = \frac{331}{502} \approx 0.6594 \) suggests that an estimated 65.94% of U.S. adults might not be bothered by NSA phone record collections.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis is a fundamental concept in hypothesis testing. It's a starting assumption that there's no effect or difference, often symbolically represented as \( H_0 \). In this exercise, the null hypothesis is that the population proportion \( p \) of U.S. adults who wouldn't be bothered is exactly 0.50, or 50%.- This means we assume there is no majority opinion on this matter.- The null hypothesis often acts as a default or control belief until evidence suggests otherwise.The alternative hypothesis, on the other hand, challenges the null. It states there is indeed a majority, i.e., more than 50% of the population holds a certain view. This leads to a deeper examination through statistical testing to see if evidence supports the alternative hypothesis over the null.
Sample Statistic
Sample statistics are crucial as they offer insights into the larger population. A sample statistic is an estimate based on observable or gathered data. It approximates a population parameter until verified.- In our case, the sample statistic is the proportion \( \hat{p} = 0.6594 \), calculated by the ratio of adults in favor (331) to the sample size (502).- These statistics are vital as they form the basis of inferential statistics.Through hypothesis testing, especially when working with sample statistics, researchers validate population parameters' claims, drawing substantial conclusions. The sample statistic calculated is instrumental in determining the test statistic, which aids in accepting or rejecting the given hypothesis based on the evidence presented.
Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted as \( \alpha \), is a threshold for judging whether the observed data is statistically compelling. In other words, it's a preset criterion to decide when to reject the null hypothesis. - A common choice is 0.05, representing a 5% risk of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. - However, in this problem, the significance level is set at 0.01 or 1%. This stricter criterion makes it more challenging to reject the null hypothesis unless there's convincing evidence.By adhering to this level, it minimizes the risk of Type I errors – falsely concluding there's a significant effect when there isn't. In our exercise, as the p-value determined was less than 0.01, the result was statistically significant, warranting the rejection of the null hypothesis and suggesting a strong support for the majority opinion.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Ann Landers, in her advice column of October 24 , 1994 (San Luis Obispo Telegram-Tribune), described the reliability of DNA paternity testing as follows: "To get a completely accurate result, you would have to be tested, and so would (the man) and your mother. The test is 100 percent accurate if the man is not the father and \(99.9\) percent accurate if he is." a. Consider using the results of DNA paternity testing to decide between the following two hypotheses: \(H_{0}\) " a particular man is the father \(H_{a}:\) a particular man is not the father In the context of this problem, describe Type I and Type II errors. (Although these are not hypotheses about a population characteristic, this exercise illustrates the definitions of Type I and Type II errors.) b. Based on the information given, what are the values of \(\alpha\), the probability of Type I error, and \(\beta\), the probability of Type II error? c. Ann Landers also stated, "If the mother is not tested, there is a \(0.8\) percent chance of a false positive." For the hypotheses given in Part (a), what are the values of \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) if the decision is based on DNA testing in which the mother is not tested?

Seat belts help prevent injuries in automobile accidents, but they certainly don't offer complete protection in extreme situations. A random sample of 319 front-seat occupants involved in head-on collisions in a certain region resulted in 95 people who sustained no injuries ("Influencing Factors on the Injury Severity of Restrained Front Seat Occupants in Car-to-Car Head-on Collisions," Accident Analysis and Prevention \([1995]: 143-150\) ). Does this suggest that the true (population) proportion of uninjured occupants exceeds .25? State and test the relevant hypotheses using a significance level of \(.05\).

For the following pairs, indicate which do not comply with the rules for setting up hypotheses, and explain why: a. \(H_{0}: \mu=15, H_{a}: \mu=15\) b. \(H_{0}: \pi=.4, H_{a}: \pi>.6\) c. \(H_{0}: \mu=123, H_{a}: \mu<123\) d. \(H_{0}: \mu=123, H_{a}: \mu=125\) e. \(H_{0}: p=.1, H_{a}: p=125\)

In a representative sample of 1000 adult Americans, only 430 could name at least one justice who is currently serving on the U.S. Supreme Court (Ipsos, January 10,2006 ). Using a significance level of \(.01\), carry out ? hypothesis test to determine if there is convincing evidence to support the claim that fewer than half of adult Americans can name at least one justice currently serving on the Supreme Court.

Medical personnel are required to report suspected cases of child abuse. Because some diseases have symptoms that mimic those of child abuse, doctors who see a child with these symptoms must decide between two competing hypotheses: \(H_{0}\) " symptoms are due to child abuse \(H_{a}:\) symptoms are due to disease (Although these are not hypotheses about a population characteristic, this exercise illustrates the definitions of Type I and Type II errors.) The article "Blurred Line Between Illness, Abuse Creates Problem for Authorities" (Macon Telegraph, February 28,2000 ) included the following quote from a doctor in Atlanta regarding the consequences of making an incorrect decision: "If it's disease, the worst you have is an angry family. If it is abuse, the other kids (in the family) are in deadly danger." a. For the given hypotheses, describe Type I and Type II errors. b. Based on the quote regarding consequences of the two kinds of error, which type of error does the doctor quoted consider more serious? Explain.

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