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What is normal, when it comes to people's body temperatures? A random sample of 130 human body temperatures, provided by Allen Shoemaker in the Journal of Statistical Education, had a mean of \(98.25^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) and a standard deviation of \(0.73^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). Does the data indicate that the average body temperature for healthy humans is different from \(98.6^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\), the usual average temperature cited by physicians and others? a. Test using the \(p\) -value approach with \(\alpha=.05\). b. Test using the critical value approach with \(\alpha=.05\). c. Compare the conclusions from parts a and b. Are they the same? d. The 98.6 standard was derived by a German doctor in 1868 , who claimed to have recorded 1 million temperatures in the course of his research. \({ }^{5}\) What conclusions can you draw about his research in light of your conclusions in parts a and b?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: Yes, based on the hypothesis test results, there is a significant difference between the average body temperature of healthy humans and the value of 98.6掳F derived from the 1868 study, as both the p-value approach and the critical value approach led to the rejection of the null hypothesis.

Step by step solution

01

1. State the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The null hypothesis (H鈧) assumes that there is no difference between the average body temperature and the given value of 98.6掳F. The alternative hypothesis (H鈧) assumes that there is a difference: H鈧: 渭 = 98.6掳F H鈧: 渭 鈮 98.6掳F
02

2. Choose the Significance Level

The significance level, 伪, is already given as 0.05 for both tests (parts a and b).
03

3. Calculate the Test Statistic

We will use a t-test (since the population standard deviation is unknown) for a one-sample hypothesis test: t = (sample mean - hypothesized mean) / (sample standard deviation / 鈭歿sample size}) t = (98.25 - 98.6) / (0.73 / 鈭130) t 鈮 -7.27
04

4a. Calculate the p-value

In part a, we use the p-value approach. Using a two-tailed test with 129 degrees of freedom (since n = 130), we compare the calculated t-value of -7.27 to the t-distribution: p-value = 2 * P(T 鈮 -7.27) = 2 * P(T 鈮 7.27) The p-value is extremely small and can be considered almost negligible.
05

5a. Compare the p-value to the Significance Level

Since the p-value is extremely small and less than the significance level (伪 = 0.05), we reject the null hypothesis (H鈧).
06

4b. Determine the Critical Value

In part b, we use the critical value approach. Again, we use a two-tailed test with 129 degrees of freedom and a 0.05 significance level: critical t-value = 卤 t(伪/2, 129) At 129 DF and 伪 = 0.05, the critical t-value is approximately 卤1.98.
07

5b. Compare the Test Statistic to the Critical Value

Since our calculated test statistic (t 鈮 -7.27) is less than the lower critical value of the two-tailed t-test (-1.98), we reject the null hypothesis (H鈧).
08

6. Compare the Conclusions from Both Approaches

Comparing the conclusions from both approaches, we see that they both lead to the same conclusion: reject the null hypothesis (H鈧). This means that the average body temperature for healthy humans is different from 98.6掳F.
09

7. Discuss the Implications on the Original Research

Our conclusions indicate that the average body temperature for healthy humans is different from the 98.6掳F value derived by the German doctor in 1868. This could mean that his research may have had sampling biases, measurement errors or other factors that led to the determination of 98.6掳F as the standard average body temperature. Additionally, advances in technology have improved the accuracy of temperature measurement since the original research was conducted. Therefore, his claim of 1 million temperatures recorded might not be an accurate representation of the true average body temperature for healthy humans.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

P-Value Approach in Hypothesis Testing
When engaged in hypothesis testing in statistics, the p-value approach is a powerful tool used to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis, which represents the default position or a standard to be tested against.

The p-value represents the probability of observing a test statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than, the actual result, assuming the null hypothesis is true. If this calculated probability is less than the chosen significance level, we conclude that such extreme results are improbable under the null assumption and thus reject the null hypothesis.

In the exercise, the mean body temperature from the sample was compared to the established norm of 98.6掳F. The very low p-value obtained indicated strong evidence against the null hypothesis, resulting in its rejection. Thus, it suggests that the true average body temperature could indeed be different from 98.6掳F.
Critical Value Approach in Hypothesis Testing
An alternative to the p-value approach is the critical value approach. This methodology involves determining a threshold or 'critical value' from the relevant statistical distribution, against which the test statistic will be compared.

In this case, the test-statistic is derived from sample data and is used to assess the plausibility of the null hypothesis. If the test-statistic falls into the critical region determined by the significance level (typically beyond the critical values), the null hypothesis is rejected.

When the one-sample t-test was performed for the body temperature data, the test statistic was much lower than the critical t-value on the negative side. Therefore, by this approach also, the null hypothesis was rejected, aligning the conclusion with that of the p-value approach.
One-Sample T-Test
The one-sample t-test is a statistical method used to compare the mean of a sample to a known value or theoretical expectation鈥攊n this case, the average human body temperature.

The formula for the test statistic in a one-sample t-test is: \[ t = \frac{\text{sample mean} - \text{hypothesized mean}}{\text{sample standard deviation} / \sqrt{\text{sample size}}} \]
For the given exercise, the t-test was used because the population standard deviation was unknown. The large absolute value of the t-statistic obtained indicated substantial deviation from the null hypothesis. This test provides a way to assess if the sample mean significantly differs from the hypothesized mean, which forms the crux of the hypothesis testing exercise.
Significance Level
In hypothesis testing, the significance level, denoted by \( \alpha \), acts as a threshold for making decisions about the null hypothesis. It reflects the risk one is willing to take of incorrectly rejecting a true null hypothesis, a mistake known as Type I error.

The commonly used significance level is 0.05 or 5%, suggesting a 5% risk of concluding a difference when there is none. Both the p-value and critical value approaches in statistics aim to determine whether the evidence is sufficient to reject the null hypothesis at the chosen significance level. Thus, \( \alpha \) represents a balance between sensitivity and specificity in hypothesis tests and is predetermined before the test is conducted to avoid bias.

In the provided example, the significance level set at 0.05 was foundational for determining the rejection of the null hypothesis across both approaches. This level indicates that we demand high evidence before we can reject the null hypothesis and assert that the true average body temperature differs from the traditionally accepted 98.6掳F.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A drug manufacturer claimed that the mean potency of one of its antibiotics was \(80 \%\). A random sample of \(n=100\) capsules was tested and produced a sample mean of \(\bar{x}=79.7 \%\) with a standard deviation of \(s=.8 \%\). Do the data present sufficient evidence to refute the manufacturer's claim? Let \(\alpha=.05\) a. State the null hypothesis to be tested. b. State the alternative hypothesis. c. Conduct a statistical test of the null hypothesis and state your conclusion.

Does a baby's sleeping position affect the development of motor skills? A study in the Archives of Pediatric Adolescent Medicine examined 343 full-term infants at their 4 -month checkups for various milestones, such as rolling over, grasping a rattle, reaching for an object, and so on. \({ }^{21}\) The baby's favored sleep position - either on the stomach or on the back or side- was reported by the parents of 320 of the children, with the sample results shown here. $$ \begin{array}{lcc} \hline & \text { Stomach } & \text { Back or Side } \\ \hline \text { Number of Infants } & 121 & 199 \\ \text { Number That Roll Over } & 93 & 119 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ The researcher reported that infants who slept in the side or back position were less likely to roll over at the 4 -month checkup than infants who slept primarily in the stomach position \((P<.001) .\) Use a large-sample test of hypothesis to confirm or refute the researcher's conclusion.

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What is the power of a test and how is it related to \(\beta ?\)

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