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91Ó°ÊÓ

Independent random samples of \(n_{1}=40\) and \(n_{2}=80\) observations were selected from binomial populations 1 and 2 , respectively. The number of successes in the two samples were \(x_{1}=17\) and \(x_{2}=23 .\) Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the difference between the two binomial population proportions. Interpret this interval.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Based on the given information, calculate the 99% confidence interval for the difference between the two binomial population proportions. Additionally, explain the significance of the interval and what it implies about the difference between the populations.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the sample proportions

First, we need to calculate the sample proportions \(\hat{p}_1\) and \(\hat{p}_2\). These can be calculated by dividing the number of successes by the number of observations in each sample: $$\hat{p}_1 = \frac{x_1}{n_1} = \frac{17}{40} = 0.425$$ and $$\hat{p}_2 = \frac{x_2}{n_2} = \frac{23}{80} = 0.2875$$
02

Find the z-score for the 99% confidence level

We want to find a 99% confidence interval, so we need to find the z-score that corresponds to the 99% confidence level. Since we are using a two-tailed test (our interval will have upper and lower bounds), we will use the z-score that corresponds to the 99.5% percentile in the standard normal distribution. This z-score is approximately 2.576.
03

Calculate the confidence interval

Now we will use the formula for the confidence interval for the difference between two binomial population proportions: $$CI = (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm z\sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1 - \hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1 - \hat{p}_2)}{n_2}}$$ Plugging in our calculated values: $$CI = (0.425 - 0.2875) \pm 2.576\sqrt{\frac{0.425(1 - 0.425)}{40} + \frac{0.2875(1 - 0.2875)}{80}}$$ Now, we find the margin of error: $$2.576\sqrt{\frac{0.425(1 - 0.425)}{40} + \frac{0.2875(1 - 0.2875)}{80}} \approx 0.2330$$ Finally, we find the confidence interval bounds: $$(0.425 - 0.2875) - 0.2330 \approx 0.1375$$ $$(0.425 - 0.2875) + 0.2330 \approx 0.3705$$
04

Interpret the interval

The 99% confidence interval for the difference between the two binomial population proportions is approximately (0.1375, 0.3705). This means we are 99% confident that the true difference between the population proportions lies within this range. If the interval contained 0, it would imply that we do not have enough evidence to support a difference between the population proportions. However, since our interval does not contain 0, we can conclude that there is significant evidence to suggest a difference between the two population proportions at the 99% confidence level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution is a type of probability distribution that arises from a series of experiments with two possible outcomes: success or failure. Each experiment, also known as a trial, is independent of the others. The number of successes in these trials is what defines the binomial distribution. For the binomial distribution to apply, a few key conditions must be met:
  • There are a fixed number of trials.
  • Each trial has only two possible outcomes: success or failure.
  • The probability of success is constant for each trial.
  • Each trial is independent of the others.
In our problem, we dealt with binomial distributions from two different populations. We counted the number of successes in each sample, which are the trials, to help estimate the parameters of the entire population. Understanding how these samples fit into a binomial framework helps us calculate the difference in population proportions.
Population Proportions
Population proportions denote the fraction of a population that possesses a certain attribute, often denoted by the symbol \( p \). In our context, the population proportion is the probability of success in a single trial within a binomial distribution framework.
Sample data are used to estimate these population proportions. We calculate sample proportions, \( \hat{p}_1 \) and \( \hat{p}_2 \), by dividing the number of successes by the total number of observations within each sample.
From the problem, the sample proportions were calculated as follows:
  • For sample 1: \( \hat{p}_1 = 0.425 \), which suggests that in the first sample, approximately 42.5% of the trials were a success.
  • For sample 2: \( \hat{p}_2 = 0.2875 \), indicating about 28.75% success rate in the second sample.
These values are crucial as they are used to construct the confidence interval and infer differences in the population proportions.
Z-Score
The z-score is a measure of how many standard deviations an element is from the mean of a distribution. It is an essential component in deriving a confidence interval. The z-score associates with the corresponding confidence level we want to achieve.
In hypothesis testing and confidence interval estimation, the z-score is used to determine the cut-off points on the standard normal distribution for a specified confidence level. In our solution, we aimed for a 99% confidence interval, which corresponds to a z-score of approximately 2.576.
  • The z-score allows us to calculate the margin of error in a confidence interval, which shows the range in which the actual population parameter lies.
  • By using the standard normal distribution, the z-score gives us a precise way to measure variability and interpret our estimations.
Understanding how to find and use the correct z-score is key in statistical analysis, especially when dealing with proportions.
Independent Random Samples
Independent random samples refer to random samples drawn from the population(s) where the selection of one sample does not influence or alter the selection of another. This is crucial to ensure that the sample outcomes reflect genuine randomness, which is vital to uphold the validity of statistical analysis.
In our exercise, two independent random samples were taken from two distinct binomial populations. This independence ensures that:
  • The conclusions drawn about each population are unaffected by any correlation between the samples.
  • The confidence interval calculated using formulas based on independent samples accurately reflects the uncertainty inherent in the data.
By keeping the samples independent, we reduce biases and misleading results, thus providing a robust basis for calculating the confidence interval between population proportions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In an experiment to assess the strength of the hunger drive in rats, 30 previously trained animals were deprived of food for 24 hours. At the end of the 24 -hour period, each animal was put into a cage where food was dispensed if the animal pressed a lever. The length of time the animal continued pressing the bar (although receiving no food) was recorded for each animal. If the data yielded a sample mean of 19.3 minutes with a standard deviation of 5.2 minutes, estimate the true mean time and calculate the margin of error.

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