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Construct a confidence interval of the population proportion at the given level of confidence. $$x=540, n=900,96 \% \text { confidence }$$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The confidence interval is \( (0.5666, 0.6334) \)

Step by step solution

01

- Calculate the sample proportion

The sample proportion is calculated by dividing the number of successes by the total number of trials. \( \text{Sample proportion} \ \ \ \ \text{p} = \frac{x}{n} = \frac{540}{900} = 0.6 \ \ \)
02

- Find the critical value (Z-score)

For a 96% confidence level, the critical value (Z) can be found using a Z-table or standard normal distribution table. The critical value for a 96% confidence interval is approximately 2.05.
03

- Calculate the standard error

The standard error (SE) is computed using the formula: \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \= \sqrt{\frac{0.6(1-0.6)}{900}} \= \sqrt{\frac{0.24}{900}} \= \sqrt{0.000267} \ \approx 0.0163 \)
04

- Determine the margin of error

The margin of error (ME) is found by multiplying the critical value (Z) by the standard error (SE). \( ME = Z \times SE \ = 2.05 \times 0.0163 \ \approx 0.0334 \)
05

- Construct the confidence interval

To find the confidence interval, subtract and add the margin of error to the sample proportion. Lower limit: \( p - ME \= 0.6 - 0.0334 \= 0.5666 Upper limit: p + ME \= 0.6 + 0.0334 \= 0.6334 \) The confidence interval is \( (0.5666, 0.6334) \)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

population proportion
When we talk about the population proportion, we refer to the fraction of a population that possesses a certain characteristic. In the context of our exercise, the population proportion is estimated using the sample proportion. The sample proportion is calculated by dividing the number of successes by the total number of trials. For example, if we have 540 successes out of 900 trials, the sample proportion (p) would be 0.6. This proportion serves as an estimate of the true population proportion.
standard error
The standard error (SE) helps us understand how spread out our sample proportion might be if we were to take many samples. It's a measure of the variability of the sample proportion. The formula for the standard error is rooted in the sample proportion (p) and is calculated as:
\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\]
For our example, with a sample proportion (p) of 0.6 and a sample size (n) of 900, we get: \br#\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.6(1-0.6)}{900}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.24}{900}} = \sqrt{0.000267} \approx 0.0163\]
This SE tells us that, if we repeated our sampling process multiple times, the sample proportion would typically vary by about 0.0163 from the true population proportion.
margin of error
The margin of error (ME) provides a range around the sample proportion within which we can expect the true population proportion to fall. It's essentially the 'wiggle room' for our estimate. The margin of error is calculated by multiplying the critical value (Z) by the standard error (SE): \br \[ME = Z \times SE\]\br From our exercise, with a Z value of 2.05 and an SE of 0.0163, the ME is computed as: \br \[ME = 2.05 \times 0.0163 \approx 0.0334\]\br So, this means our sample proportion could vary by 0.0334 in either direction, giving us a sense of our estimation's precision.
critical value
A critical value (Z) is a point on the standard normal distribution that corresponds to a specified confidence level. It helps us determine how many standard errors to go out from the sample proportion to construct our confidence interval. For a 96% confidence level, the Z value is 2.05. This value is derived from the significance level (α), which in our case is 4% (100% - 96%). We split this equally on both sides of the normal distribution, giving us 2% on each end. Consulting a Z-table or using statistical software, we can find that the critical value for a 96% confidence interval is approximately 2.05. This means we're 96% confident that the true population proportion lies within 2.05 standard errors of our sample proportion.

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