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Own a Gun? In a Harris Poll conducted in May 2000 , \(39 \%\) of the people polled answered yes to the following question: "Do you happen to have in your home or garage any guns or revolvers?" The margin of error in the poll was \(\pm 3 \%=\pm 0.03,\) and the estimate was made with \(95 \%\) confidence. How many people were surveyed?

Short Answer

Expert verified
1041 people were surveyed.

Step by step solution

01

- Understand the Margin of Error Formula

The margin of error (E) for a proportion can be calculated using the formula: \[ E = z \times \frac{\root \frac{\text{p} \times (1 - \text{p})}{n}} \] where E = margin of error z = z-score p = proportion of people who answered yes n = number of people surveyed
02

- Identify Known Values

From the problem, we know: E = 0.03 (margin of error) p = 0.39 (proportion answering yes) 95% confidence level means the z-score is 1.96.
03

- Rearrange the Formula

Rearrange the margin of error formula to solve for n (number of people surveyed): \[ n = (\frac{z^2 \times \text{p} \times (1 - \text{p})}{E^2}) \]
04

- Substitute Values and Solve

Substitute the known values into the formula: \[ n = (\frac{(1.96)^2 \times 0.39 \times (1 - 0.39)}{(0.03)^2}) \] Calculate the values: \[ n = (\frac{3.8416 \times 0.39 \times 0.61}{0.0009}) \] \[ n \approx (\frac{0.914904 \times 3.8416}{0.0009}) \] \[ n \approx \frac{0.914904}{0.0009} \] \[ n \approx 1040.26 \] Finally, round to the nearest whole number: \[ n \approx 1041 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

statistical confidence level
In statistics, the confidence level is a key concept that tells us how certain we can be about the accuracy of our sample results. It is often expressed as a percentage, such as 95% or 99%. The confidence level indicates the probability that the confidence interval contains the true population parameter. For example, a 95% confidence level means we are 95% certain that our sample proportion is within the margin of error of the true population proportion.
The confidence level is used to determine the z-score in margin of error calculations. Z-scores are a number from the standard normal distribution. At a 95% confidence level, the z-score is approximately 1.96.
The higher the confidence level, the more certain we can be about our results, but this also usually results in a larger margin of error. Conversely, a lower confidence level results in a smaller margin of error but less certainty about our results.
sample proportion
The sample proportion is a crucial concept in statistics, representing the fraction of the sample that presents a particular characteristic. For example, in the problem, 39% (or 0.39) of the people polled said they have guns. This 39% is the sample proportion. It helps us estimate the proportion of the population that shares the same characteristic but within a margin of error.
The sample proportion is used in various calculations, including determining the margin of error and establishing confidence intervals. In our case, it's part of the formula to calculate the margin of error and to solve for the number of people surveyed (n). The formula is:
\( E = z \times \frac{\root \frac{\text{p} \times (1 - \text{p})}{n}} \)
Here, E is the margin of error, z is the z-score, p is the sample proportion, and n is the number of people surveyed.
z-score
A z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean. In the context of confidence intervals and margin of error calculations, the z-score represents how many standard deviations a point is from the mean of the distribution. The z-score is based on the desired confidence level.
For example, a 95% confidence level has a corresponding z-score of approximately 1.96, which is used in our margin of error formula. This score is derived from the standard normal distribution. The higher the z-score, the wider the confidence interval, but with a higher certainty.
In the margin of error formula:
\[ E = z \times \frac{\root \frac{\text{p} \times (1 - \text{p})}{n}} \]
The z-score helps to scale the error based on the confidence level. This is crucial for accurately calculating the margin of error and the number of people surveyed for specific confidence levels.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose the arrival of cars at Burger King's drive-through follows a Poisson process with \(\mu=4\) cars every 10 minutes. (a) Simulate obtaining 30 samples of size \(n=35\) from this population. (b) Obtain the sample mean and standard deviation for each of the 30 samples. (c) Construct \(90 \% ~ t\) -intervals for each of the 30 samples. (d) How many of the intervals do you expect to include the population mean? How many actually contain the population mean?

IQ scores based on the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC) are known to be normally distributed with \(\mu=100\) and \(\sigma=15\) (a) Simulate obtaining 20 samples of size \(n=15\) from this population. (b) Obtain the sample mean and standard deviation for each of the 20 samples. (c) Construct \(95 \%\) t-intervals for each of the 20 samples. (d) How many of the intervals do you expect to include the population mean? How many actually contain the population mean?

(a) Find the \(t\) -value such that the area in the right tail is 0.10 with 25 degrees of freedom. (b) Find the \(t\) -value such that the area in the right tail is 0.05 with 30 degrees of freedom. (c) Find the \(t\) -value such that the area left of the \(t\) -value is 0.01 with 18 degrees of freedom. [Hint: Use symmetry. (d) Find the critical \(t\) -value that corresponds to \(90 \%\) confidence. Assume 20 degrees of freedom.

Packer Fans In a Harris Poll conducted October \(20-25\) 2004,381 of 2114 randomly selected adults who follow professional football said the Green Bay Packers were their favorite team. (a) Verify that the requirements for constructing a confidence interval about \(\hat{p}\) are satisfied. (b) Construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of adults who follow professional football who say the Green Bay Packers is their favorite team. Interpret this interval. (c) Construct a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of adults who follow professional football who say the Green Bay Packers is their favorite team. Interpret this interval. (d) What is the effect of increasing the level of confidence on the width of the interval?

Explain why you should be wary of surveys that do not report a margin of error.

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