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Compute \(P(x)\) using the binomial probability formula. Then determine whether the normal distribution can be used as an approximation for the binomial distribution. If so, approximate \(P(x)\) and compare the result to the exact probability. $$n=80, p=0.15, X=18$$

Short Answer

Expert verified
Exact binomial probability: Use exact calculation via formula. Normal approximation: Valid, result \( \boxed{0.9412} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Binomial Probability Formula

The binomial probability of getting exactly X successes in n trials is given by the formula \[ P(X) = \binom{n}{X} p^X (1-p)^{n-X} \] where \( \binom{n}{X} \) is the binomial coefficient, calculated as \( \frac{n!}{X!(n-X)!} \).
02

Calculate the binomial coefficient

For our values, \( n = 80 \) and \( X = 18 \). We need to compute \( \binom{80}{18} \). This can be calculated as \( \binom{80}{18} = \frac{80!}{18!(80-18)!} \) which simplifies to \( \frac{80!}{18!62!} \).
03

Compute the exact binomial probability

Using the values, we substitute into the binomial probability formula: \[ P(18) = \binom{80}{18} (0.15)^{18} (0.85)^{62} \].
04

Check the conditions for normal approximation

For the normal approximation to be valid, \( np \) and \( n(1-p) \) should be greater than 5. Compute these values: \( np = 80 \times 0.15 = 12 \) \( n(1-p) = 80 \times 0.85 = 68 \) Both are greater than 5, so normal approximation can be used.
05

Find the mean and standard deviation of the binomial distribution

The mean \( \text{µ} \) and standard deviation \( \text{σ} \) are given by \[ \text{µ} = np = 12, \] \[ \text{σ} = \text{√}{np(1-p)} = \text{√}{80 \times 0.15 \times 0.85} \approx 3.182. \]
06

Convert to the standard normal distribution

Convert \( X = 18 \) to the standard normal variable \( Z \), using \[ Z = \frac{X - \text{µ}}{\text{σ}} = \frac{18 - 12}{3.182} \approx 1.886. \]
07

Find the cumulative probability

Use the standard normal distribution table to find \( P(Z < 1.886) \approx 0.9706 \). Thus, the approximate probability using the normal distribution is \( P(X = 18) \approx P(17.5 < X < 18.5) \approx 0.9706 - 0.0294 = 0.9412 \).
08

Compare the results

Compare the exact binomial probability and the normal approximation. If calculated correctly, the exact binomial probability should be close to the normal approximation result of \( 0.9412 \), given rounding differences.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

binomial distribution
The binomial distribution is a probability distribution. It helps you find the probability of a given number of successes from a fixed number of trials. Each trial has two possible outcomes: success or failure. The trials must be independent, meaning the outcome of one trial does not affect the others. For instance, consider flipping a coin. Getting heads might be considered a success, and tails a failure. If you flip the coin 10 times, the binomial distribution can tell you the likelihood of getting exactly 6 heads.
normal approximation
When working with large sample sizes in a binomial distribution, calculations can be tedious. To simplify, we can use the normal approximation. This method transforms the binomial distribution into a normal distribution, which is easier to handle. But, before using this method, certain conditions must be met: the product of the number of trials (n) and probability of success (p) should both be greater than 5. This ensures that the distribution is roughly symmetric and bell-shaped—for these exercises, both criteria were satisfied. In our problem, with n=80 and p=0.15, calculating np and n(1-p) gives 12 and 68. Both are greater than 5, hence the normal approximation can be applied.
binomial coefficient
The binomial coefficient in the binomial probability formula helps in finding the number of ways to choose k successes out of n trials. It is denoted as \( \binom{n}{k} \) and calculated using the formula: \[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \] In our problem, \( n = 80 \) and \( X = 18 \). Hence, the binomial coefficient becomes \( \binom{80}{18} \). It calculates as: \( \frac{80!}{18!62!} \). factorials can lead to large numbers and are best computed using a calculator or software to avoid manual errors.
standard normal distribution
The standard normal distribution is a special case of the normal distribution. It has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. This distribution is useful in converting values from any normal distribution into a common scale, called the Z-score. The Z-score tells you how many standard deviations a data point is from the mean. For example, in our exercise, we converted X = 18 to the Z-score using the formula: \( Z = \frac{X - \text{µ}}{\text{σ}} \). With mean \( \text{µ} = 12 \) and standard deviation \( \text{σ} \approx 3.182 \), Z became \( \frac{18 - 12}{3.182} \approx 1.886 \). We then used standard normal distribution tables to find probabilities corresponding to this Z-score.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Find the indicated areas. For each problem, be sure to draw a standard normal curve and shade the area that is to be found. Determine the area under the standard normal curve that lies to the right of (a) \(Z=-3.49\) (b) \(Z=-0.55\) (c) \(Z=2.23\) (d) \(Z=3.45\)

Use a normal probability plot to assess whether the sample data could have come from a population that is normally distributed. A random sample of weekly work logs at an automobile repair station was obtained and the average number of customers per day was recorded. $$\begin{array}{lllll}26 & 24 & 22 & 25 & 23 \\\\\hline 24 & 25 & 23 & 25 & 22 \\\\\hline 21 & 26 & 24 & 23 & 24 \\ \hline 25 & 24 & 25 & 24 & 25 \\\\\hline 26 & 21 & 22 & 24 & 24\end{array}$$

According to American Airlines, Flight 215 from Orlando to Los Angeles is on time \(90 \%\) of the time. Suppose 150 flights are randomly selected. Use the normal approximation to the binomial to (a) approximate the probability that exactly 130 flights are on time. (b) approximate the probability that at least 130 flights are on time. (c) approximate the probability that fewer than 125 flights are on time. (d) approximate the probability that between 125 and 135 flights, inclusive, are on time.

Describe the procedure for finding the area under any normal curve.

A discrete random variable is given. Assume the probability of the random variable will be approximated using the normal distribution. Describe the area under the normal curve that will be computed. For example, if we wish to compute the probability of finding at least five defective items in a shipment, we would approximate the probability by computing the area under the normal curve to the right of \(X=4.5\). The probability that fewer than 35 people support the privatization of Social Security.

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