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Compute \(P(x)\) using the binomial probability formula. Then determine whether the normal distribution can be used as an approximation for the binomial distribution. If so, approximate \(P(x)\) and compare the result to the exact probability. $$n=60, p=0.4, X=20$$

Short Answer

Expert verified
Exact Probability: 0.0402. Approximated Probability: 0.1446.

Step by step solution

01

Define Binomial Probability Formula

The binomial probability formula is given by: \[ P(X = x) = \binom{n}{x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x} \] where \( n \) is the number of trials, \( p \) is the probability of success, and \( x \) is the number of successes.
02

Substitute Given Values

Given \( n = 60 \), \( p = 0.4 \), and \( X = 20 \), substitute these values into the formula: \[ P(X = 20) = \binom{60}{20} (0.4)^{20} (0.6)^{40} \]
03

Compute Binomial Coefficient

Calculate the binomial coefficient \( \binom{60}{20} \), which can be done using the formula: \[ \binom{n}{x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!} \]
04

Evaluate

Compute the value using the binomial probability formula. \( P(X=20) \approx 0.0402 \)
05

Check Normal Approximation Conditions

To consider using normal distribution as an approximation, check if: \( np \geq 5 \) and \( n(1-p) \geq 5 \). For given values, \( np = 60(0.4) = 24 \) and \( n(1-p) = 60(0.6) = 36 \), which are both greater than 5. Thus, normal approximation can be used.
06

Determine Mean and Standard Deviation

Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the binomial distribution: \[ \mu = np = 24 \] \[ \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} = \sqrt{60(0.4)(0.6)} \approx 3.79 \]
07

Convert to z-Score

Convert \( X=20 \) into the z-score for the normal distribution: \[ z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} = \frac{20 - 24}{3.79} \approx -1.06 \]
08

Use Normal Distribution to Approximate Probability

Look up the z-score (-1.06) in the standard normal distribution table to find the approximate probability. \( P(Z < -1.06) \approx 0.1446 \)
09

Compare with Exact Probability

Compare the exact probability from the binomial distribution \( 0.0402 \) with the normal approximation \( 0.1446 \). The difference suggests that while the conditions for normal approximation are met, the results can vary.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Approximation
Normal approximation can be used to estimate probabilities in a binomial distribution when certain conditions are met. For a binomial distribution with parameters \( n \) and \( p \), the normal distribution can be a suitable approximation if both \( np \geq 5 \) and \( n(1-p) \geq 5 \). This rule helps ensure that the binomial distribution is roughly symmetric and not too skewed.

When these criteria are satisfied, we can approximate the binomial distribution using a normal distribution with the same mean (\( \mu \)) and standard deviation (\( \sigma \)). The mean of the binomial distribution is \( \mu = np \), and the standard deviation is \( \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} \).

For our example, given \( n=60 \) and \( p=0.4 \), we found that \( np = 24 \) and \( n(1-p) = 36 \), both of which are greater than 5. Hence, we can use the normal approximation. This can simplify large binomial probability calculations that may otherwise be complex.
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient, represented as \( \binom{n}{x} \), is a key component of the binomial probability formula. It tells us the number of ways to choose \( x \) successes out of \( n \) trials regardless of the order. The binomial coefficient is calculated using the formula: \[ \binom{n}{x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!} \] where \( n! \) is the factorial of \( n \).

In our given problem with \( n=60 \) and \( X=20 \), we calculate \( \binom{60}{20} \) to find the number of ways to choose 20 successes out of 60 trials. Factorials grow rapidly, so it's often easier to use a calculator or software to compute large binomial coefficients.
Z-score
The z-score is a measure that describes the position of a raw score in terms of its distance from the mean (\( \mu \)) of a distribution, measured in standard deviations (\( \sigma \)). It is calculated using the formula: \[ z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]

In the context of normal approximation for a binomial distribution, once we have the mean and standard deviation, we convert the number of successes (\( X \)) to a z-score to find its position on the standard normal distribution.

For our problem where \( X=20 \), \( \mu=24 \), and \( \sigma=3.79 \), the z-score is: \[ z = \frac{20 - 24}{3.79} \approx -1.06 \]

This z-score helps us find the probability associated with \( X=20 \) by looking up \( z=-1.06 \) in the standard normal distribution table. This gives us the approximate probability \( P(Z < -1.06) \approx 0.1446 \).

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Find the indicated \(Z\) -score. Be sure to draw a standard normal curve that depicts the solution. Find the \(Z\) -score such that the area under the standard normal curve to the left is 0.85

Find the indicated areas. For each problem, be sure to draw a standard normal curve and shade the area that is to be found. Determine the area under the standard normal curve that lies between (a) \(Z=-2.04\) and \(Z=2.04\) (b) \(Z=-0.55\) and \(Z=0\) (c) \(Z=-1.04\) and \(Z=2.76\)

Assume the random variable \(X\) is normally distributed with mean \(\mu=50\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=7 .\) Compute the following probabilities. Be sure to draw a normal curve with the area corresponding to the probability shaded. $$P(55 \leq X \leq 70)$$

Find the indicated areas. For each problem, be sure to draw a standard normal curve and shade the area that is to be found. Determine the area under the standard normal curve (a) to the left of \(Z=-2\) or to the right of \(Z=2\) (b) to the left of \(Z=-1.56\) or to the right of \(Z=2.56\) (c) to the left of \(Z=-0.24\) or to the right of \(Z=1.20\)

The Empirical Rule The Empirical Rule states that about \(68 \%\) of the data in a bell-shaped distribution lies within 1 standard deviation of the mean. This means about \(68 \%\) of the data lie between \(Z=-1\) and \(Z=1\) Verify this result. Verify that about \(95 \%\) of the data lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Finally, verify that about \(99.7 \%\) of the data lie within 3 standard deviations of the mean.

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