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The proportion of deaths due to lung cancer in males ages \(15-64\) in England and Wales during the period \(1970-\) 1972 was 12\%. Suppose that of 20 deaths that occur among male workers in this age group who have worked for at least 1 year in a chemical plant, 5 are due to lung cancer. We wish to determine whether there is a difference between the proportion of deaths from lung cancer in this plant and the proportion in the general population. Perform the hypothesis test, and report a \(p\) -value.

Short Answer

Expert verified
p-value is 0.089; do not reject the null hypothesis.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

The null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) is that the proportion of deaths due to lung cancer among the male workers in the chemical plant (\( p \)) is equal to the proportion in the general population, which is 12%, or \( p = 0.12 \).The alternative hypothesis (\( H_a \)) is that the proportion is different from 12%, i.e., \( p eq 0.12 \). This is a two-tailed test.
02

Determine the Test Statistic

We will use a one-proportion z-test to conduct this hypothesis test. To calculate the z-score, use the formula:\[z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1-p_0)}{n}}}\]where \(\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n}\) is the sample proportion with \(x = 5\) and \(n = 20\), \(p_0 = 0.12\) is the population proportion, and \(n\) is the sample size.
03

Calculate Sample Proportion \(\hat{p}\)

Calculate the sample proportion:\[\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} = \frac{5}{20} = 0.25\]So, \(\hat{p} = 0.25\).
04

Calculate the Standard Error

Calculate the standard error using the formula:\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{p_0(1-p_0)}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.12 \times (1-0.12)}{20}} \approx 0.0767\]This is the standard error of the sample proportion.
05

Calculate the Z-Score

Now calculate the z-score using:\[z = \frac{0.25 - 0.12}{0.0767} \approx 1.701\]This z-score will help us determine the p-value.
06

Find the p-Value

For a z-score of approximately 1.701 in a two-tailed test, the p-value can be found using standard normal distribution tables or a calculator. The p-value is about 0.089.
07

Make a Decision

Typically, a significance level (\( \alpha \)) of 0.05 is used. Since the p-value of 0.089 is greater than 0.05, we do not reject the null hypothesis.There is not enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of deaths due to lung cancer in the chemical plant is different from that in the general population.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Proportion Test
A proportion test is a statistical method used to determine whether a sample proportion is significantly different from a known population proportion. It is often utilized in scenarios where researchers want to compare the proportion of a particular attribute in a sample with the general population.

In our example, the proportion of interest is the number of deaths caused by lung cancer among male chemical plant workers compared to the broader population. The null hypothesis ( H_0 ) states that the sample proportion is the same as the known population proportion, which is 0.12 or 12% in this case. The alternative hypothesis ( H_a ) suggests a difference exists.

Since this is a two-tailed test, we're interested in any significant difference, whether it is higher or lower than 12%. The proportion test provides a way to make this comparison in a structured and statistically valid manner, ensuring the results we obtain are robust.
Z-Score Calculation
The z-score is a crucial part of hypothesis testing as it allows us to determine how our sample proportion compares to the population proportion in terms of standard deviations.

To calculate the z-score in a proportion test, use: \[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1-p_0)}{n}}} \] where:
  • \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion,\( x/n \), which is 0.25 in our case (5 deaths out of 20 samples).
  • \( p_0 \) is the population proportion, which is 0.12.
  • \( n \) is the sample size, here 20.
By plugging these values into the formula, we obtain a z-score of approximately 1.701. This figure tells us how many standard deviations our sample proportion is from the population proportion. Computing the z-score is an essential step before determining the statistical significance of our findings, leading us directly to the p-value.
P-Value Interpretation
Upon calculating the z-score, the next step is to interpret the p-value, a critical aspect of hypothesis testing. The p-value tells us the probability of observing our sample data, or something more extreme, assuming the null hypothesis is true.

In our scenario, a z-score of approximately 1.701 gives us a p-value of about 0.089 for a two-tailed test. This p-value is compared to a significance level (\( \alpha \)), commonly set at 0.05.

If the p-value is less than \( \alpha \), we reject the null hypothesis, suggesting that the sample proportion is significantly different from the population proportion. However, since 0.089 is greater than 0.05, we do not reject the null hypothesis. This means there is not enough statistical evidence to support a difference in lung cancer death proportions between the plant workers and the general population.

P-value interpretation is vital for deciding the outcome of a hypothesis test and understanding the broader implications of the research.
Biostatistics
Biostatistics is a field where statistical methods are applied to biological topics. It is a cornerstone in areas like public health, epidemiology, and medical research.

In our lung cancer example, biostatistics offers tools to analyze and interpret the data, allowing us to draw meaningful conclusions about health-related issues.
Key concepts in biostatistical analysis include:
  • Identification and formulation of hypotheses concerning health data.
  • Utilization of statistical tests, like the proportion test, to evaluate hypotheses.
  • Calculation and interpretation of statistical measures, such as the z-score and p-value.
Biostatistics provides a framework for scientific inquiry in health, ensuring research findings are based on rigorous statistical evidence, thus influencing health policies and practices. By understanding biostatistics, researchers can critically evaluate and contribute to the growing body of knowledge in health sciences.

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The proportion of deaths due to lung cancer in males ages \(15-64\) in England and Wales during the period \(1970-\) 1972 was 12\%. Suppose that of 20 deaths that occur among male workers in this age group who have worked for at least 1 year in a chemical plant, 5 are due to lung cancer. We wish to determine whether there is a difference between the proportion of deaths from lung cancer in this plant and the proportion in the general population. Is a one-sided or two-sided test appropriate here?

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