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Refer to a landmark study conducted in 1896 in Denmark by Dr. Johannes Fibiger, who went on to receive the Nobel Prize in Medicine in \(1926 .\) The purpose of the study was to determine the effectiveness of a new serum for treating diphtheria, a common and often deadly respiratory disease in those days. Fibiger conducted his study over a one-year period (May 1896-April 1897) in one particular Copenhagen hospital. New diphtheria patients admitted to the hospital received different treatments based on the day of admission. In one set of days (call them "even" days for convenience), the patients were treated with the new serum daily and received the standard treatment. Patients admitted on alternate days (the "odd" days) received just the standard treatment. Over the one-year period of the study, eight of the 239 patients admitted on the "even" days and treated with the serum died, whereas 30 of the 245 patients admitted on the "odd" days died. (a) Describe the sample for Fibiger's study. (b) Is selection bias a possible problem in this study? Explain.

Short Answer

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(a) The sample consisted of newly admitted diphtheria patients at a specific Copenhagen hospital from May 1896 to April 1897, divided into 'even' day admissions who received the new serum and standard treatment and 'odd' day admissions who received only the standard treatment. (b) It is unlikely that there was selection bias in the study as the division of treatment was based on their day of admission, which is assumed to be random with regard to their health status.

Step by step solution

01

Describe the sample

The sample for Fibiger's study consisted of newly admitted diphtheria patients at a certain Copenhagen hospital from May 1896 to April 1897. The patients were divided into two groups based on the day of their admission: those admitted on 'even' days, numbering 239 patients, were treated with the new serum in addition to the standard treatment, whereas those admitted on 'odd' days, totaling 245 patients, were only given the standard treatment.
02

Analyze the potential of selection bias

Selection bias could potentially arise in this study if the patients' admission days (odd or even) were somehow correlated with the severity of their disease or their overall health status. However, according to the given information, the assignment of patients to different treatments was solely based on the day of their admission, which is presumably random relative to their health condition. Therefore, it is unlikely that selection bias is a problem in this study.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Selection
Sample selection is a fundamental part of any experimental study, as it sets the foundation for analyzing results. In Fibiger's study, the sample selection was straightforward but effective. He selected patients from a single hospital in Copenhagen within a specific time frame, from May 1896 to April 1897. This method ensured that the population was consistent in terms of location and period, focusing purely on the effectiveness of the diphtheria serum.

The patients were divided into two groups: those admitted on even days received the new serum along with the standard treatment, while those admitted on odd days received only the standard treatment. This clear distinction based on admission days formed the basis for defining the sample groups. Such a criterion for sample selection is simple yet crucial because:
  • It removes the subjective bias in patient grouping by relying on fixed and non-manipulable criteria, such as calendar days.
  • It allows researchers to draw comparisons between two well-defined groups, improving the reliability of the results.
Selection Bias
Selection bias is a significant concern in statistical analysis as it can skew the results and lead to misleading conclusions. In the context of this study, selection bias could have occurred if patients with specific characteristics, such as more severe cases, were systematically assigned to either the 'even' or 'odd' day group.

However, in Fibiger's study, the assignment was determined by the day of the week patients were admitted to the hospital, making it random with respect to their health status upon arrival. This randomness is key to minimizing selection bias. Despite the potential for variance in patient severity or other health-related factors upon admission, the use of a seemingly arbitrary system based on admission days minimizes these concerns.

Ensuring that treatment assignment is truly random helps mitigate selection bias, which strengthens the validity of the study's results and conclusions. By using a random mechanism like the day of admission, the study effectively balanced out potential unknown variables that could have favored one treatment over the other.
Experimental Design
Experimental design is the strategy managing how the experiment is structured to answer the research question effectively. In Fibiger's study, the design involved a simple but ingenious method where patients were divided based on admission days for treatment allocation. This design was crucial as it enabled a clear comparison between the two treatments.

Several key elements highlight the strength of this experimental design:
  • Control group: Patients admitted on odd days served as a control group, only receiving the standard treatment.
  • Treatment group: Those admitted on even days received the new serum, alongside the standard treatment.
  • Randomization: Although days might seem a predictable factor, the randomness comes from the inability to predict which patient condition will arrive on a given day, helping to randomize the groups indirectly.
The experimental design ensures that the findings are attributable to the treatment rather than external factors. It also facilitates statistical analysis, which can confirm or reject the hypothesis about the serum's effectiveness. By adopting this design, growth in scientific understanding was achieved, attributing potential differences in patient outcomes to the experimental treatment, thereby elevating the study's credibility in the scientific community.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Refer to the following story: The Cleans burg Planning Department is trying to determine what percent of the people in the city want to spend public funds to revitalize the downtown mall. To do so, the department decides to conduct a survey. Five professional interviewers are hired. Each interviewer is asked to pick a street corner of his or her choice within the city limits, and every day between 4: 00 P.M. and 6: 00 P. \(M\) the interviewers are supposed to ask each passerby if he or she wishes to respond to a survey sponsored by Cleansburg City Hall. If the response is yes, the follow-up question is asked: Are you in favor of spending public funds to revitalize the downtown mall? The interviewers are asked to return to the same street corner as many days as are necessary until each has conducted a total of 100 interviews. The results of the survey are shown in Table \(14-3 .\) Do you think this was a good survey? If you were a consultant to the Cleansburg Planning Department, could you suggest some improvements? Be specific.

You want to estimate how many fish there are in a small pond. Let's suppose that you first capture \(n_{1}=500\) fish, tag them, and throw them back into the pond. After a couple of days you go back to the pond and capture \(n_{2}=120\) fish, of which \(k=30\) are tagged. Estimate the number of fish in the pond.

Refer to a clinical study conducted at the Houston Veterans Administration Medical Center on the effectiveness of knee surgery to cure degenerative arthritis (osteoarthritis) of the knee. Of the 324 individuals who met the inclusion criteria for the study, 144 declined to participate. The researchers randomly divided the remaining 180 subjects into three groups: One group received a type of arthroscopic knee surgery called debridement; a second group received a type of arthroscopic knee surgery called lavage; and a third group received skin incisions to make it look like they had had arthroscopic knee surgery, but no actual surgery was performed. The patients in the study did not know which group they were in and in particular did not know if they were receiving the real surgery or simulated surgery. All the patients who participated in the study were evaluated for two years after the procedure. In the two-year follow-up, all three groups said that they had slightly less pain and better knee movement, but the "fake" surgery group often reported the best results. As a result of this study, the Department of Veterans Affairs issued an advisory to its doctors recommending that they stop using arthroscopic knee surgery for patients suffering from osteoarthritis. Do you agree or disagree with the advisory? Explain your answer.

Darroch's method. is a method for estimating the size of a population using multiple (more than two) captures. For example, suppose that there are four captures of sizes \(n_{1}, n_{2}, n_{3},\) and \(n_{4},\) respectively, and let \(M\) be the total number of distinct individuals caught in the four captures (i.e., an individual that is captured in more than one capture is counted only once). Darroch's method gives the estimate for \(N\) as the unique solution of the equation \(\left(1-\frac{M}{N}\right)=\left(1-\frac{n_{1}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{2}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{3}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{4}}{N}\right)\). (a) Suppose that we are estimating the size of a population of fish in a pond using four separate captures. The sizes of the captures are \(n_{1}=30, n_{2}=15, n_{3}=22,\) and \(n_{4}=45 .\) The number of distinct fish caught is \(M=75 .\) Estimate the size of the population using Darroch's formula (b) Show that with just two captures Darroch's method gives the same answer as the capture-recapture method.

Refer to the following story (see also Exercise 32): The Dean of Students at Tasmania State University wants to determine how many undergraduates at TSU are familiar with a new financial aid program offered by the university. There are 15,000 undergraduates at \(T S U,\) so it is too expensive to conduct a census. The following sampling method, known as systematic sampling, is used to choose a representative sample of undergraduates to poll. Start with the registrar's alphabetical listing containing the names of all undergraduates. Randomly pick a number between 1 and \(100,\) and count that far down the list. Take that name and every 100 th name after it. For example, if the random number chosen is \(73,\) then pick the \(73 \mathrm{rd}, 173 \mathrm{rd}, 273 \mathrm{rd},\) and so forth, names on the list. (a) Find the sampling proportion. (b) Suppose that the survey had a response rate of \(90 \%\). Find the size \(n\) of the sample.

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