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Refer to a landmark study conducted in 1896 in Denmark by Dr. Johannes Fibiger, who went on to receive the Nobel Prize in Medicine in \(1926 .\) The purpose of the study was to determine the effectiveness of a new serum for treating diphtheria, \(a\) common and often deadly respiratory disease in those days. Fibiger conducted his shudy over a one-year period (May 1896 April 1897 ) in one particular Copenhagen hospital. New diphtheria patients admilted to the hospital received different treatments based on the day of admission. In one set of days (call them "even" days for convenience), the patients were treated with the new serum daily and received the standard treatment. Patients admitted on alternate days (the "odd" days) received just the standard treatment. Over the one-year period of the study, eight of the 239 patients admitted on the "even" days and treated with the serum died, whereas 30 of the 245 patients admitted on the "odd" days died. (a) Describe the sample for Fibiger's study. (b) Is selection bias a possible problem in this study? Explain.

Short Answer

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The sample consists of all new diphtheria patients admitted to a certain hospital from May 1896 to April 1897, divided by admission day for different treatments. Selection bias is possible if there were systematic differences in the patient groups unrelated to the treatment.

Step by step solution

01

Identifying the Sample

The sample for Fibiger's study consists of all new diphtheria patients admitted to a particular Copenhagen hospital from May 1896 to April 1897. Patients admitted on 'even' days, who were treated with the new serum in addition to the standard treatment, and patients admitted on 'odd' days, who received only the standard treatment, make up the two subsets of the sample.
02

Evaluating Selection Bias

Selection bias refers to a distortion in a measure of association due to a sample selection that does not accurately reflect the target population. In Fibiger's study, selection bias could be a concern if the assignment of patients to treatment based on admission day (even or odd) resulted in systematic differences between the groups that are independent of the treatment effects. For instance, if sicker patients were more likely to be admitted on certain days due to extraneous factors, this would cause selection bias. Without further information about the admission process and patient characteristics, it is not possible to definitively rule out selection bias in this study.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Selection Bias
Selection bias occurs when there is a systematic difference between the characteristics of the people selected for a study and those of the potential target population, which leads to a distortion of the findings. In the realm of epidemiological studies, this can significantly affect the validity of the conclusions drawn. When participants are not randomly chosen or treatments are not randomly assigned, certain outcomes may be over or underrepresented.

For example, if individuals with more severe illness are more likely to be admitted to a hospital on specific days and those are the days chosen for a particular treatment, the results may not accurately reflect the effectiveness of the treatment. It's essential to examine the method of patient assignment and control for variables that might influence the outcome beyond the treatment itself, such as severity of illness, age, and other health factors. Otherwise, it may falsely suggest that the treatment is more or less effective than it actually is.
Diphtheria Treatment Research
In the 19th century, diphtheria was a formidable illness with widespread mortal implications. Dr. Johannes Fibiger's investigation into the effectiveness of a new serum was a significant step in combating this disease. The study aimed to compare the mortality rate of patients treated with the serum to those who received standard treatment.

During Fibiger's study, the introduction of new treatment was carefully monitored by alternating days patients were admitted, which allowed for a comparative analysis of the outcomes. This method has inherent flaws that might induce selection bias, yet the research is an early form of what would evolve into controlled clinical trials. It's an impressive historical example of medical progress in the field of treatment for infectious diseases, during a time when evidence-based medicine was just beginning to take root.
19th Century Medical Studies
Medical studies in the 19th century laid the groundwork for modern research methodologies, despite often lacking the rigor and protocols established in later years. Engineered out of necessity and curiosity, these studies varied greatly in their design and approach. They frequently employed rudimentary forms of comparison and lacked statistically sophisticated analysis.

Furthermore, the medical community's understanding of disease etiology was still developing, and many treatments were based on observational outcomes rather than controlled experimental data. As a result, studies from this era, including those focused on treatment research such as Fibiger's, must be interpreted within the context of their time, understanding the limitations inherent in their design.
Nobel Prize in Medicine
The Nobel Prize in Medicine is bestowed upon individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the medical field, often changing the course of medicine. Dr. Johannes Fibiger was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1926 for his work on a different topic - the parasitic causation of cancer - which was groundbreaking at the time.

The accolade represents not only the highest level of recognition for medical research but also serves as an inspiration for ongoing inquiry and innovation in the medical community. Although later reviews may question some Nobel-recognized discoveries, including aspects of Fibiger's cancer work due to evolving scientific knowledge, the Nobel Prize continues to symbolize excellence and rigor in medical research, underscoring how significant the impact of a single discovery can be.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

An article in the Providence Jourmal about automobile accident fatalities includes the following observation: "Fortytwo percent of all fatalities occurred on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, apparently because of increased drinking on the weekends." (a) Give a possible argument as to why the conclusion drawn may not be justified by the data. (b) Give a different possible argument as to why the conclusion drawn may be justified by the data after all.

Darroch's method. is a method for estimating the size of a population using multiple (more than two) captures. For example, suppose that there are four captures of sizes \(n_{1}, n_{2}, n_{3},\) and \(n_{4},\) respectively, and let \(M\) be the total number of distinct individuals caught in the four captures (i.e., an individual that is captured in more than one capture is counted only once). Darroch's method gives the estimate for \(N\) as the unique solution of the equation \(\left(1-\frac{M}{N}\right)=\left(1-\frac{n_{1}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{2}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{3}}{N}\right)\left(1-\frac{n_{4}}{N}\right) .\) (a) Suppose that we are estimating the size of a population of fish in a pond using four separate captures. The sizes of the captures are \(n_{1}=30, n_{2}=15, n_{3}=22\), and \(n_{4}=45 .\) The number of distinct fish caught is \(M=75 .\) Estimate the size of the population using Darroch's formula. (b) Show that with just two captures Darroch's method gives the same answer as the capture-recapture method.

Madison County has a population of 34,522 people. The county hospital is interested in estimating the number of people in the county with blood-type \(A-\) To do this they test blood samples from 253 patients. Out of this group, 17 have blood-type \(A-\) Use this sample to estimate the number of people in Madison County with blood-type A-.

Refer to a study on the effectiveness of an HPV (human papilloma virus) vaccine conducted between October 1998 and November 1999. HPV is the most common sexually transmitted infection-more than 20 million Americans are infected with HPV-but most HPV infections are benign, and in most cases infected individuals are not even aware they are infected. (On the other hand, some HPV infections can lead to cervical cancer in women.) The researchers recruited 2392 women from 16 different centers across the United States to participate in the study through advertisements on college campuses and in the surrounding communities. To be eligible to participate in the study, the subjects had to meet the following criteria: (1) be a female between 16 and 23 years of age, (2) not be pregnant, (3) have no prior abnormal Pap smears, and (4) report to have had sexual relations with no more than five men. At each center, half of the participants were randomly selected to receive the HPV vaccine, and the other half received a placebo injection. After 17.4 months, the incidence of HPV infection was 3.8 per 100 woman-years at risk in the placebo group and 0 per 100 woman-years at risk in the vaccine group. In addition, all nine cases of HPV-related cervical precancerous growths occurred among the placebo recipients. [Source: New England Journal of Medicine, \(347,\) no. 21 (November 21,2002\(): 1645-1651\). (a) Describe the sample for the study. (b) Was the sample chosen using random sampling? Explain.

Refer to the following story: The dean of students at Tasmania State University wants to determine how many undergraduates at TSU are familiar with a new financial aid program offered by the university. There are 15,000 undergraduates at TSU, so it is too expensive to conduct a census. The following sampling method is used to choose a representative sample of undergraduates to poll. Start with the registrar's alphabetical listing containing the names of all undergraduates. Randomly pick a number between \(l\) and \(100,\) and count that far down the list. Take that name and every I00th name after it. For example, if the random number chosen is \(73,\) then pick the \(73 \mathrm{rd}, 173 \mathrm{rd}, 273 \mathrm{rd}\) and so forth, names on the list. (The sampling method illustrated in this survey is known as systematic sampling.) (a) Explain why the method used for choosing the sample is not simple random sampling. (b) If \(100 \%\) of those responding claimed that they were not familiar with the new financial aid program offered by the university, is this result more likely due to sampling variability or to sample bias? Explain.

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