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An experiment has four equally likely outcomes: \(E_{1}, E_{2}, E_{3},\) and \(E_{4}\). a. What is the probability that \(E_{2}\) occurs? b. What is the probability that any two of the outcomes occur (e.g., \(E_{1}\) or \(E_{3}\) )? c. What is the probability that any three of the outcomes occur (e.g., \(E_{1}\) or \(E_{2}\) or \(E_{4}\) )?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. \(\frac{1}{4}\), b. \(\frac{1}{2}\), c. \(\frac{3}{4}\).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Experiment

An experiment with four equally likely outcomes means each outcome has the same probability of occurring. These outcomes are labeled as \(E_1, E_2, E_3,\) and \(E_4\).
02

Probability of One Outcome

To find the probability of a single event occurring like \(E_2\), divide 1 by the total number of outcomes as there are four equally likely outcomes. Therefore, \(P(E_2) = \frac{1}{4}\).
03

Probability of Two Outcomes

Determine the probability that any two outcomes occur by adding their probabilities. For outcomes \(E_1\) or \(E_3\), the probability is \(P(E_1 \text{ or } E_3) = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} = \frac{2}{4} = \frac{1}{2}\).
04

Probability of Three Outcomes

Calculate the probability of any three outcomes occurring by adding their probabilities. For \(E_1, E_2,\) or \(E_4\), the probability is \(P(E_1 \text{ or } E_2 \text{ or } E_4) = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Equally Likely Outcomes
To comprehend the idea of equally likely outcomes, imagine each possibility in an event having an identical chance of happening. For example, consider rolling a fair six-sided die. Each face is equally likely to land face up. Similarly, in our given problem, the outcomes \(E_1, E_2, E_3,\) and \(E_4\) are four events that are equally likely. This means each has an identical probability of occurring when the experiment is conducted.

In an experiment with equally likely outcomes, the total probability is always equal to 1. This is because the sum of the probabilities of all potential independent possibilities must equal certainty—one complete event must occur. If you sum all these equal probabilities, you'll reach a total of 1:
\[P(E_1) + P(E_2) + P(E_3) + P(E_4) = 1\].
Each outcome then has an individual probability of \(\frac{1}{4}\) in our scenario, reflecting the fair and balanced chance of each event happening.
Understanding these principles aids in calculating probabilities, especially in scenarios with equally likely outcomes.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probability is about determining how likely an event is to occur. Fundamentally, probability measures the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes.

To calculate the probability of a single event, such as \(E_2\), in an experiment where each outcome is equally probable, you divide the number of ways \(E_2\) can occur (which is 1 event) by the total number of outcomes (which is 4 outcomes). The probability is:
\[P(E_2) = \frac{1}{4}\].

When calculating the probability of multiple events like \(E_1\) or \(E_3\), you'll add their individual probabilities. Since each individual event has a probability of \(\frac{1}{4}\), the combined probability of any two events occurring is:
\[P(E_1 \text{ or } E_3) = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} = \frac{1}{2}\].
Consider the probability of three events happening such as \(E_1, E_2, \text{ or } E_4\). By adding their probabilities, you achieve:
\[P(E_1 \text{ or } E_2 \text{ or } E_4) = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}\].
This straightforward addition arises from the fact that the outcomes are equally probable.
This simplicity is the beauty of equally likely outcomes, making probability calculation a straightforward process.
Event Outcomes
In probability, an event refers to any outcome or a group of outcomes from an experiment. Understanding event outcomes is essential as it forms the base of probability theory which deals with evaluating how likely it is for an event to happen.

Outcomes like \(E_1, E_2, E_3,\) and \(E_4\) from our experiment can be combined to form more complex events. For example, selecting any one, two, or three of these outcomes forms different events. Logical thinking about outcomes involves ensuring each scenario is accounted for and correctly interpreted.
Let's discuss various outcome combinations:
  • A single outcome event: If only \(E_2\) is considered, we simply find its probability as a single occurrence.
  • A two-outcome event: Combining outcomes like \(E_1\) or \(E_3\) creates a multi-outcome event probability.
  • A three-outcome event: More complex events like \(E_1, E_2, \text{ or } E_4\) cover a majority of the possibilities, increasing the likelihood.
These combinations demonstrate that events can range from simple occurrences to comprehensive gatherings of multiple possibilities. Recognizing this range helps in accurately predicting and calculating probabilities in various scenarios.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A local bank reviewed its credit card policy with the intention of recalling some of its credit cards. In the past approximately \(5 \%\) of cardholders defaulted, leaving the bank unable to collect the outstanding balance. Hence, management established a prior probability of .05 that any particular cardholder will default. The bank also found that the probability of missing a monthly payment is .20 for customers who do not default. Of course, the probability of missing a monthly payment for those who default is 1 a. Given that a customer missed one or more monthly payments, compute the posterior probability that the customer will default. b. The bank would like to recall its card if the probability that a customer will default is greater than \(.20 .\) Should the bank recall its card if the customer misses a monthly payment? Why or why not?

An experiment has three steps with three outcomes possible for the first step, two outcomes possible for the second step, and four outcomes possible for the third step. How many experimental outcomes exist for the entire experiment?

Simple random sampling uses a sample of size \(n\) from a population of size \(N\) to obtain data that can be used to make inferences about the characteristics of a population. Suppose that, from a population of 50 bank accounts, we want to take a random sample of 4 accounts in order to learn about the population. How many different random samples of 4 accounts are possible?

A large consumer goods company ran a television advertisement for one of its soap products. On the basis of a survey that was conducted, probabilities were assigned to the following events. \(B=\) individual purchased the product \(S=\) individual recalls seeing the advertisement \(B \cap S=\) individual purchased the product and recalls seeing the advertisement The probabilities assigned were \(P(B)=.20, P(S)=.40,\) and \(P(B \cap S)=.12\). a. What is the probability of an individual's purchasing the product given that the individual recalls seeing the advertisement? Does seeing the advertisement increase the probability that the individual will purchase the product? As a decision maker, would you recommend continuing the advertisement (assuming that the cost is reasonable)? b. Assume that individuals who do not purchase the company's soap product buy from its competitors. What would be your estimate of the company's market share? Would you expect that continuing the advertisement will increase the company's market share? Why or why not? c. The company also tested another advertisement and assigned it values of \(P(S)=.30\) and \(P(B \cap S)=.10 .\) What is \(P(B | S)\) for this other advertisement? Which advertisement seems to have had the bigger effect on customer purchases?

In the city of Milford, applications for zoning changes go through a two-step process: a review by the planning commission and a final decision by the city council. At step 1 the planning commission reviews the zoning change request and makes a positive or negative recommendation concerning the change. At step 2 the city council reviews the planning commission's recommendation and then votes to approve or to disapprove the zoning change. Suppose the developer of an apartment complex submits an application for a zoning change. Consider the application process as an experiment. a. How many sample points are there for this experiment? List the sample points. b. Construct a tree diagram for the experiment.

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