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Assume that random guesses are made for eight multiple choice questions on an SAT test, so that there are \(n=8\) trials, each with probability of success (correct) given by \(p=0.20 .\) Find the indicated probability for the number of correct answers. Find the probability that the number \(x\) of correct answers is fewer than 3 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the number of correct answers is fewer than 3 is approximately 0.7969.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Parameters

The problem involves a binomial distribution where the number of trials is given by \(n = 8\) and the probability of success (correct answer) for each trial is \(p = 0.20\).
02

Define the Random Variable

Let \(X\) be the random variable representing the number of correct answers. This means that \(X\) follows a binomial distribution: \(X \sim B(n=8, p=0.20)\).
03

Binomial Probability Formula

Recall the binomial probability formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient, \(p\) is the probability of success, and \(1-p\) is the probability of failure.
04

Calculate Individual Probabilities

We need to find the probability that the number of correct answers \(X\) is fewer than 3. This means we need to calculate \( P(X < 3) \). We do this by finding the sum of the probabilities for \(X = 0\), \(X = 1\), and \(X = 2\). First calculate \( P(X = 0) \): \[ P(X = 0) = \binom{8}{0} (0.20)^0 (0.80)^8 = 1 \times 1 \times 0.16777216 = 0.1678 \] Next, calculate \( P(X = 1) \): \[ P(X = 1) = \binom{8}{1} (0.20)^1 (0.80)^7 = 8 \times 0.20 \times 0.2097152 = 0.3355 \] Finally, calculate \( P(X = 2) \): \[ P(X = 2) = \binom{8}{2} (0.20)^2 (0.80)^6 = 28 \times 0.04 \times 0.262144 = 0.2936 \]
05

Sum the Probabilities

To find \( P(X < 3) \), sum the probabilities calculated: \[ P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) \] \[ P(X < 3) = 0.1678 + 0.3355 + 0.2936 = 0.7969 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Probability
In this exercise, we deal with binomial probability. Binomial probability describes the likelihood of obtaining a fixed number of successful outcomes in a set number of trials. Each trial must have exactly two possible outcomes: success or failure. This is exactly what you encounter with multiple-choice questions, where you either get the question correct or incorrect. You can calculate binomial probabilities using the binomial probability formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]
\binom{n}{k}\ is the binomial coefficient, which represents the number of ways to choose k successes out of n trials. This formula helps find the probability of getting exactly k successes (correct answers in our case) out of n trials.
What is a Random Variable?
A random variable is a numerical outcome of a random phenomenon. In our problem, we define the random variable X to represent the number of correct answers out of 8 multiple-choice questions. Since we are dealing with binomial experiments, our random variable X can take integer values from 0 to 8. We denote that X follows a binomial distribution as X ~ B(8, 0.20), where 8 is the number of trials and 0.20 is the probability of success for each trial.
Understanding Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient, noted as \binom{n}{k}\, represents the number of ways to choose k successes from n trials without regard to order. It is calculated using the formula: \[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \]
For example, to find \binom{8}{2}\, we calculate \frac{8!}{2!(8-2)!}\ = 28. This means there are 28 different ways to get exactly 2 correct answers out of 8 questions. Understanding how to calculate this coefficient is crucial for applying the binomial probability formula.
Calculating Probabilities Step-by-Step
To solve the problem of finding the probability of getting fewer than 3 correct answers, we follow a step-by-step approach. First, we calculate the individual probabilities for getting 0, 1, and 2 correct answers.
\textbf{Probability for 0 Correct Answers:}\ \[ P(X = 0) = \binom{8}{0} (0.20)^0 (0.80)^8 = 0.1678 \]
\textbf{Probability for 1 Correct Answer: }\ \[ P(X = 1) = \binom{8}{1} (0.20)^1 (0.80)^7 = 0.3355 \]
\textbf{Probability for 2 Correct Answers: } \ \[ P(X = 2) = \binom{8}{2} (0.20)^2 (0.80)^6 = 0.2936 \]
Finally, we sum up these individual probabilities to find the total probability of getting fewer than 3 correct answers: \[ P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) = 0.1678 + 0.3355 + 0.2936 = 0.7969 \]
Therefore, the probability of getting fewer than 3 correct answers is 0.7969 or 79.69%.

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