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Assume that when adults with smartphones are randomly selected, \(54 \%\) use them in meetings or classes (based on data from an LG Smartphone survey). If 20 adult smartphone users are randomly selected, find the probability that exactly 15 of them use their smartphones in meetings or classes.

Short Answer

Expert verified
0.0384

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Variables

The given problem can be modeled as a binomial probability scenario where the probability of success (using a smartphone in meetings or classes) is given as 0.54, and the number of trials (adult smartphone users) is 20. Here, let the number of successful outcomes be 15.
02

Write the Binomial Probability Formula

The binomial probability formula is \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n - k} \]where - \( n \) is the number of trials, - \( k \) is the number of successful outcomes, - \( p \) is the probability of success, - and \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient.
03

Plug in the Values

Plugging in the given values into the binomial formula, we have:\[ P(X = 15) = \binom{20}{15} (0.54)^{15} (0.46)^5 \]Here, - \( n = 20 \), - \( k = 15 \), - \( p = 0.54 \), and - \( 1 - p = 0.46 \).
04

Calculate the Binomial Coefficient

The binomial coefficient \( \binom{20}{15} \) is computed as:\[ \binom{20}{15} = \frac{20!}{15!(20-15)!} = \frac{20!}{15!5!} \]
05

Compute the Values

Calculate \( \binom{20}{15} \). This gives \( \binom{20}{15} = 15504 \).Combine this with the probability values:\[ P(X = 15) = 15504 \times (0.54)^{15} \times (0.46)^5 \]
06

Final Probability Calculation

Calculate each term:- \( (0.54)^{15} \approx 2.95 \times 10^{-6} \)- \( (0.46)^{5} \approx 0.0004 \)and multiply these with the binomial coefficient: \[ P(X = 15) = 15504 \times 2.95 \times 10^{-6} \times 0.0004 \approx 0.0384 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Coefficient
The Binomial Coefficient is a fundamental concept in probability and combinatorics. It is represented as \(\binom{n}{k}\), which reads as 'n choose k'. This represents the number of ways to choose k successes from n trials. The general formula is: \[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \]Here, \(n!\) (n factorial) denotes the product of all positive integers up to n. Understanding the Binomial Coefficient is essential when calculating probabilities in binomial distributions.
Probability Formula
The Binomial Probability Formula helps us find the likelihood of a given number of successes in a set number of trials. The formula is: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n - k} \]Where: \ \ \- \(n\) is the number of trials, \ \ \- \(k\) is the number of successful outcomes, \ \ \- \(p\) is the probability of success, \ \ \- \(1 - p\) is the probability of failure.
This formula combines the Binomial Coefficient with the probabilities of success and failure across different trials, providing a powerful tool for calculating probabilities in binomial distributions.
Let's dive into each part:
  • \binom{n}{k}: This is our Binomial Coefficient, representing how many ways we can choose k successes out of n trials.
  • p^k: This term indicates the probability of having exactly k successes.
  • (1 - p)^{n - k}: This term accounts for the probability of having the remaining trials be failures.
  • All parts work together to give us the probability of observing exactly k successes in n trials.
    Success Probability
    When dealing with Binomial Probability, understanding Success Probability is vital. Success Probability is denoted by \(p\) and refers to the likelihood of a single trial being a success. For instance, in our exercise, the Success Probability for using smartphones in meetings or classes is \(0.54\). To compute probabilities in a binomial setting, you multiply the Success Probability across the number of desired successes in your scenario. It's also crucial to calculate the probability of failure. This is reflected in our formula as \(1 - p\). Understanding both success and failure probabilities provides a complete picture of the binomial distribution's behavior. Consider these points: - Success Probability is tied to the specific conditions of the problem. - It aids in making predictions about the number of successes in future trials. - Practicing with real-world examples, like our smartphone exercise, solidifies these core concepts.

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