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Find the probability. Subjects for the next presidential election poll are contacted using telephone numbers in which the last four digits are randomly selected (with replacement). Find the probability that for one such phone number, the last four digits include at least one \(0 .\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is 0.3439.

Step by step solution

01

- Understand the Given Problem

The last four digits of the phone number are randomly generated, with each digit ranging from 0 to 9. To find the probability that at least one of these digits is a 0, we first need to calculate the probability that none of them is a 0.
02

- Calculate the Probability of a Single Digit Not Being 0

There are 10 possible digits (0 through 9). If a digit is not 0, it could be any of the other 9 remaining digits. The probability of one digit not being 0 is \( \frac{9}{10} \).
03

- Calculate the Probability of All Four Digits Not Being 0

Since the digits are chosen independently, multiply the probabilities for each of the four digits: \[ \frac{9}{10} \times \frac{9}{10} \times \frac{9}{10} \times \frac{9}{10} = \frac{9^4}{10^4} \].
04

- Simplify the Calculation

Calculate \( 9^4 \) and \( 10^4 \): \( 9^4 = 6561 \) and \( 10^4 = 10000 \). Thus the probability that none of the four digits is 0 is \[ \frac{6561}{10000} \].
05

- Find the Probability that at Least One Digit is 0

The probability that at least one digit is 0 is the complement of the probability that none of the digits is 0. Therefore, subtract the probability found in Step 4 from 1: \[ 1 - \frac{6561}{10000} = \frac{10000 - 6561}{10000} = \frac{3439}{10000} = 0.3439 \].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

probability theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with the analysis of random events. The central idea is to predict how likely an event is to happen. Probabilities are expressed as values between 0 and 1, where 0 means the event will not happen and 1 means the event will certainly happen. For example, when we calculate the probability of rolling a certain number on a die, we're using probability theory to understand the outcomes. In the given exercise, we use probability theory to determine the likelihood that at least one of the last four digits in a phone number will be 0.
random selection
Random selection refers to a process where each item has an equal chance of being chosen. This concept is essential in ensuring fairness and avoiding bias. In the context of the exercise, the last four digits of a phone number are generated independently and randomly. This means each digit (0-9) has an equal chance (1 out of 10 or 10%) of being selected. Random selection ensures that every possible combination of digits is equally likely, helping us to use probability theory to make accurate predictions.
complement rule
The complement rule is a fundamental principle in probability theory. It states that the probability of an event happening is equal to 1 minus the probability of it not happening. In simple terms, if you know the probability of something NOT happening, you can easily find the probability of it happening by subtracting from 1. This rule is particularly useful in complex scenarios, like our exercise. Instead of calculating the probability of at least one 0 being present directly, we first find the probability of having no 0s at all. Then we use the complement rule to find the required probability. For example, in the exercise, we calculate that the probability of no 0s in the four digits is equal to 0.6561. Therefore, the probability of having at least one 0 is 1 - 0.6561 = 0.3439.
independent events
Independent events are events where the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. In probability theory, this concept is crucial as it simplifies calculations. An example of such events is rolling two dice; the result of one die doesn't influence the result of the other. In the exercise, the selection of each digit in the phone number is independent of the others. This means knowing one digit does not give any clue about what the next digit will be. Because the events are independent, we can multiply their probabilities to find the probability of all events happening together. Specifically, the probability of each digit not being 0 is \( \frac{9}{10} \). For four independent digits, we multiply: \[ \left( \frac{9}{10} \right)^4 = \frac{6561}{10000} \].

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