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Find the probability. In the United States, the true probability of a baby being a boy is \(0.512\) (based on the data available at this writing). Among the next six randomly selected births in the United States, what is the probability that at least one of them is a girl?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least one of the next six births is a girl is 0.98122.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find the probability that at least one of the next six randomly selected births is a girl, given that the probability of a baby being a boy is 0.512.
02

Define the Complement Event

The complement of 'at least one girl' is 'no girls at all' (i.e., all six babies are boys).
03

Find the Probability of All Boys

Calculate the probability that all six babies are boys using the given probability. If the probability of a boy is 0.512, then the probability of having six boys is \(P(\text{all boys}) = (0.512)^6\).
04

Calculate the Probability of All Boys

Using a calculator, \(P(\text{all boys}) = (0.512)^6 = 0.01878\).
05

Calculate the Probability of At Least One Girl

Use the complement rule: \(P(\text{at least one girl}) = 1 - P(\text{all boys})\). Substituting the value, we get: \(P(\text{at least one girl}) = 1 - 0.01878 = 0.98122\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

complement rule
In probability theory, the complement rule is a useful tool for finding the probability of an event occurring by considering the probability of its complement. The complement of an event A, denoted as A', includes all outcomes where event A does not occur. This is expressed mathematically as:
\[P(A') = 1 - P(A)\]
In our exercise, we want to find the probability of at least one girl among the next six births. We define the complement event as 'no girls at all,' which means all six babies are boys. Calculating this complement helps us easily find our desired probability.
binomial probability
Binomial probability deals with scenarios where there are fixed numbers of independent trials, each having two possible outcomes: success or failure. The probability of getting a certain number of successes in such trials can be calculated using the binomial formula.
In our problem, we are dealing with six independent trials (six births). The two outcomes are either a boy (success, with probability 0.512) or a girl (failure - as we defined it, with probability 0.488). However, instead of finding the exact number of successes, we are interested in the opposite extreme scenarios: all babies being boys (picking as our 'successes' for simplicity). Understanding this binomial framework helps us use other rules, like the complement rule, more effectively.
probability calculation
Probability calculation is the process of determining the likelihood of an event occurring. It often involves simple multiplication or addition of probabilities, and sometimes more advanced methods like the binomial theorem or using complements.
In this exercise, we start by calculating the probability that all six babies are boys. Using the given probability of a boy (0.512), we raise this to the power of six since all births are considered independent events. This is calculated as: \[P(\text{all boys}) = (0.512)^6 \] which comes out to be 0.01878.
Next, we use the complement rule: \[P(\text{at least one girl}) = 1 - P(\text{all boys}) = 1 - 0.01878 = 0.98122\]
Thus, the probability calculation involves logical steps and the application of simple probability rules.
statistical events
Statistical events are outcomes or occurrences that have a measurable probability. In a probabilistic context, events are typically defined to aid in calculating the chances of various outcomes.
In our exercise, the primary events we consider are:
  • Each birth results in a boy (0.512 probability)
  • Each birth results in a girl (0.488 probability)
  • All six births result in boys
  • At least one girl in six births
Identifying these events clearly is crucial as they form the basis of our probability calculations. Each event's probability is determined independently, and we use these calculations to determine the more complex event probabilities through rules like the complement rule. Understanding these statistical events helps in organizing our approach and systematically finding the solution.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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