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Large stadiums rely on backup generators to provide electricity in the event of a power failure. Assume that emergency backup generators fail \(22 \%\) of the times when they are needed (based on data from Arshad Mansoor, senior vice president with the Electric Power Research Institute). A stadium has three backup generators so that power is available if at least one of them works in a power failure. Find the probability of having at least one of the backup generators working given that a power failure has occurred. Does the result appear to be adequate for the stadium's needs?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least one generator works is approximately 98.94%. This appears to be adequate for the stadium's needs.

Step by step solution

01

- Understanding the Problem

The problem involves finding the probability that at least one out of three backup generators will work during a power failure, given that each generator fails with a probability of 22%.
02

- Calculate the Probability of Generator Failure

Since each generator fails 22% of the time, the probability of a single generator working is 1 - 0.22 = 0.78 or 78%.
03

- Calculate the Probability that All Generators Fail

We need to find the probability that all three generators fail. This is the product of the individual failure probabilities: \[ P(\text{All Fail}) = 0.22 \times 0.22 \times 0.22 = 0.22^3 = 0.010648 \]
04

- Calculate the Probability of At Least One Generator Working

The probability that at least one generator works is the complement of the probability that all three generators fail: \[ P(\text{At Least One Works}) = 1 - P(\text{All Fail}) = 1 - 0.010648 = 0.989352 \]
05

- Evaluate the Result

The probability that at least one generator works is 0.989352, or about 98.94%. This is a high probability, indicating that the backup generators are very reliable for the stadium's needs.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
Calculating probability is fundamental in understanding real-world scenarios. In this exercise, we are dealing with the probability that backup generators will work during a power failure. A probability measures the chance of an event occurring and ranges from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). Here, we are interested in the probability that at least one of the three generators will work, given a known failure rate.
The main points are:
  • Each generator has a failure probability of 22%, or 0.22.
  • Therefore, the probability it works is the complement: 1 - 0.22 = 0.78.
Breaking down complex probability calculations into steps makes them less daunting and more manageable.
Complement Rule
In probability, the complement rule helps us find the probability of an event by subtracting the probability of its complement from 1. Here, the complement of the event 'at least one generator works' is 'all generators fail'.
Understanding the complement rule is key for this problem:
  • The probability of ‘all three generators failing’ is calculated by multiplying individual failure probabilities: \( P(\text{All Fail}) = 0.22 \times 0.22 \times 0.22 = 0.022^3 = 0.010648 \).
  • Using the complement rule, the probability that ‘at least one generator works’ is: \( 1 - P(\text{All Fail}) \).
  • This step-by-step complements logical reasoning in calculating the desired probability.
Generator Failure Rate
The generator failure rate is an essential input for our probability calculations. In the given problem, each generator has a failure rate of 22%.
This percentage expresses how often the generator fails on average. Here’s how it affects our calculations:
  • Failure rate of 22%, or 0.22, means the generator works 78% of the time (\( 1 - 0.22 = 0.78 \)).
  • For three generators to fail concurrently, the individual failure probabilities multiply: \( P(\text{All Fail}) = 0.22 \times 0.22 \times 0.22 = 0.010648 \).
These failure rates are fundamental in assessing the reliability of the stadium's backup power system.
Stadium Power Backup
Backup generators are critical for large stadiums to ensure continuous operations during power failures. Ensuring reliability in such situations is paramount.
For the stadium to securely operate, the probability calculations help determine whether at least one generator will work when needed:
  • After calculations, the probability of having at least one generator work is approximately 0.989352 or 98.94%.
  • Such a high probability indicates strong reliability in the backup system, essential for large venues hosting significant events.
Providing a reliable power backup system ensures safety and uninterrupted service, highlighting the importance of these probability assessments.

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