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A Gallup poll asked college students in 2016 and again in 2017 whether they believed the First Amendment guarantee of freedom of religion was secure or threatened in the country today. In 2016,2089 out of 3072 students surveyed said that freedom of religion was secure or very secure. In 2017,1929 out of 3014 students felt this way. a. Determine whether the proportion of college students who believe that freedom of religion is secure or very secure in this country has changed from \(2016 .\) Use a significance level of \(0.05\). b. Use the sample data to construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportions of college students in 2016 and 2017 who felt freedom of religion was secure or very secure. How does your confidence interval support your hypothesis test conclusion?

Short Answer

Expert verified
If the p-value calculated from the hypothesis test is less than the significance level of \(0.05\), then there's a significant difference in the proportion of students who believe that freedom of religion was secure or very secure from 2016 to 2017. The \(95\%\) confidence interval can be used to quantify this difference, supporting or contradicting the hypothesis test conclusion depending on whether it includes 0.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate sample proportions for each year

For 2016, sample proportion \(p_{2016}\) is calculated as \(p_{2016} = 2089/3072\). Similarly for 2017, sample proportion \(p_{2017}\) is calculated as \(p_{2017} = 1929/3014\).
02

Conduct Hypothesis Testing

0. Null Hypothesis (\(H_0\)) is that there is no difference in the proportions from 2016 to 2017. 1. Alternate Hypothesis (\(H_A\)) is that there is a difference in the proportions from 2016 to 2017. 2. Calculate the combined sample proportion \(P\) using the formula: \( P = (x_{2016} + x_{2017}) / (n_{2016} + n_{2017}) \). 3. Calculate the standard error (SE) for difference in proportions using the formula: \( SE = \sqrt{P(1-P) *((1/n_{2016}) + (1/n_{2017}))} \). 4. Calculate the test statistic (Z) using the formula: \(Z = (p_{2016} - p_{2017}) / SE \). 5. Calculate p-value associated with observed Z using Z-table. If p-value < 0.05, then you reject \(H_0\). If p-value > 0.05, then you fail to reject \(H_0\)
03

Construct a 95% confidence interval

Calculate the estimated standard error (ESE) for difference using the formula: \( ESE = \sqrt{(p_{2016}(1 - p_{2016})/n_{2016}) + (p_{2017}(1 - p_{2017})/n_{2017})} \). The \(95\%\) confidence interval for the difference in proportions is calculated as: \( CI = (p_{2016} - p_{2017}) \pm 1.96 * ESE \). If CI includes 0, it implies that there is no significant difference between the proportions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportions
When we talk about sample proportions, we refer to the ratio of individuals in a sample that have a certain characteristic. For instance, if we conduct a survey among students about their opinion on a topic, the proportion of students in favor of a particular opinion is the sample proportion. It is a vital statistic that serves as a basis for further analysis.

In the exercise given, the sample proportions for the college students' belief in the security of freedom of religion in 2016 and 2017 were calculated from the poll results. The calculation was straightforward: for 2016, the sample proportion, denoted as p_{2016}, was found by dividing the number of students who believed freedom of religion was secure, 2089, by the total number of students surveyed, 3072. Similarly, p_{2017} was calculated for 2017 using the numbers 1929 out of 3014 surveyed students.
Confidence Intervals
Confidence intervals give us a range of values within which we can say, with a certain level of confidence, the true population parameter lies. While a sample proportion gives us a point estimate, a confidence interval accounts for the fact that there is sampling variability, and our estimate may not be the exact population proportion.

When constructing a 95% confidence interval for the difference between two sample proportions, as in our exercise, we are creating a range in which we believe the true difference in population proportions falls, 95% of the time. The confidence interval was computed by first finding the estimated standard error of the difference then applying a margin of error, which is the product of the critical value for the 95% confidence level (1.96) and the estimated standard error.
Statistical Significance
When we discuss statistical significance, we are talking about the likelihood that an observed difference or association in our sample data did not occur by random chance. This concept is essential in hypothesis testing; it helps us determine whether to believe that there is indeed an effect or difference in the population based on our sample.

In hypothesis testing, we set a significance level, often denoted as α. In the exercise, the significance level is 0.05. If the p-value, which represents the probability of obtaining our sample results when the null hypothesis is true, is less than α, the results are considered statistically significant, and we would reject the null hypothesis. Otherwise, we would fail to reject it. This process allows us to make informed decisions about the validity of our hypotheses based on our sample data.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, which we denote as H_0, is the default assumption that there is no effect or no difference. In the context of our exercise, the null hypothesis states that the proportion of college students who believe that freedom of religion is secure or very secure has not changed from 2016 to 2017.

It acts as the baseline from which we measure whether our sample data provides enough evidence to suggest a significant difference or effect. In other words, when we calculate our test statistics and compare it with the p-value, we are testing the likelihood of the null hypothesis being true.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, symbolized by H_A or H_1, is the hypothesis that researchers really want to test. It represents the possibility that there is an effect, difference, or association in the population. In our exercise, the alternative hypothesis posits that there is a difference in the proportions of college students who believed in the security of freedom of religion between 2016 and 2017.

The alternative hypothesis is the opposite of the null hypothesis. When we perform hypothesis testing, we are essentially seeing if there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. The outcome of this test depends on whether the observed data significantly deviates from what we would expect if the null hypothesis were true.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A teacher giving a true/false test wants to make sure her students do better than they would if they were simply guessing, so she forms a hypothesis to test this. Her null hypothesis is that a student will get \(50 \%\) of the questions on the exam correct. The alternative hypothesis is that the student is not guessing and should get more than \(50 \%\) in the long run. $$\begin{aligned}&\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.50 \\\&\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p>0.50\end{aligned}$$ A student gets 30 out of 50 questions, or \(60 \%\), correct. The p-value is \(0.079\). Explain the meaning of the \(\mathrm{p}\) -value in the context of this question.

Pew Research reported that in the 2016 presidential election, \(53 \%\) of all male voters voted for Trump and \(41 \%\) voted for Clinton. Among all women voters, \(42 \%\) voted for Trump and \(54 \%\) voted for Clinton. Would it be appropriate to do a two-proportion \(z\) -test to determine whether the proportions of men and women who voted for Trump were significantly different (assuming we knew the number of men and women who voted)? Explain.

In a 2018 study reported in The Lancet, Mercie et al. investigated the efficacy and safety of varenicline for smoking cessation in people living with HIV. The study was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Of the 123 subjects treated with varenicline, 18 abstained from smoking for the entire 48-week study period. Of the 124 subjects assigned to the placebo group, 8 abstained from smoking for the entire study period. a. Find the sample percentage of subjects in each group who abstained from smoking for the entire study period. b. Determine whether varenicline is effective in reducing smoking among HIV patients. Note that this means we should test if the proportion of the varenicline group who abstained from smoking for the entire study period is significantly greater than that of the placebo group. Use a significance level of \(0.05\)

Give the null and alternative hypotheses for each test, and state whether a one-proportion z-test or a two-proportion z-test would be appropriate. a. You test a person to see whether he can tell tap water from bottled water. You give him 20 sips selected randomly (half from tap water and half from bottled water) and record the proportion he gets correct to test the hypothesis. b. You test a random sample of students at your college who stand on one foot with their eyes closed and determine who can stand for at least 10 seconds, comparing athletes and nonathletes.

A 2003 study of dreaming published in the journal Perceptual and Motor Skills found that out of a random sample of 113 people, 92 reported dreaming in color. However, the proportion of people who reported dreaming in color that was established in the 1940 s was \(0.29\) (Schwitzgebel 2003). Check to see whether the conditions for using a one-proportion z-test are met assuming the researcher wanted to see whether the proportion dreaming in color had changed since the \(1940 \mathrm{~s}\).

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