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A Harris poll asked a sample of U.S. adults if they agreed with the statement "Artificial intelligence will widen the gap between the rich and poor in the U.S." Of those aged 18 to \(35,69 \%\) agreed with the statement. Of those aged 36 to \(50,60 \%\) agreed with the statement. A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) (where \(p_{1}\) is the proportion of those aged \(18-35\) who agreed and \(p_{2}\) is the proportion of those aged \(36-50\) who agreed) is \((0.034,0.146)\). Does the interval contain 0 ? What does this tell us about the proportion of adults in these age groups who agree with the statement?

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, the interval does not contain 0. This signifies that there is a significant difference between the proportions of adults who agree with the statement in these two age groups. And, based on the given data, we can say that the proportion of adults aged 18 to 35 who agree is significantly higher than the proportion of those between the ages of 36 to 50 who agree.

Step by step solution

01

Recognise the Confidence Interval

The provided confidence interval for the difference in proportions (\(p_{1}-p_{2}\)) is (0.034,0.146).
02

Check if Confidence Interval contains 0

In this interval, both the lower and upper boundaries, i.e., 0.034 and 0.146 are positive. An interval containing '0' would mean having '0' as one of the possible values in the range of the interval . Here, '0' is not in this range. Therefore, the provided interval does not contain '0'.
03

Interpret the Confidence Interval.

The fact that this interval does not contain '0' means that there is a significant difference between the two proportions \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\). Since it only contains positive values, we can also say that \(p_{1}\) is significantly greater than \(p_{2}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistical Significance
Statistical significance refers to the likelihood that a result or relationship is caused by something other than mere random chance. In the context of the exercise, we consider a confidence interval for the difference in proportions of U.S. adults aged 18 to 35 and those aged 36 to 50 who agree with the statement regarding artificial intelligence and wealth disparity.

When analyzing the confidence interval that does not contain the value 0, we can conclude that there is statistical significance. In other words, this interval implies that the observed difference between the two age groups is unlikely to have occurred by random chance alone, and it points toward an actual difference in opinions between the age brackets.

Another important aspect of statistical significance is the confidence level, which in this case is 95%. This means that we can be 95% confident that the true difference in population proportions falls within the provided interval. However, it's also crucial to note that statistical significance does not necessarily imply practical significance, which would require further contextual analysis of the implications of the observed difference.
Proportion Difference
Understanding proportion difference is crucial when comparing the characteristics of two or more groups. The term 'proportion' refers to the fraction of the group that shares a particular attribute. In this exercise, the proportions refer to the percentage of people who agree with the given statement within their respective age groups.

Proportion difference is quantified as the subtraction of one proportion from another. Here, \(p_{1} - p_{2}\) represents the difference between the younger and older age groups' proportions. Since the confidence interval for this difference (\(0.034, 0.146\)) does not cross zero and all values are positive, we conclude that a larger percentage of the younger group (18-35) agrees with the statement than the older group (36-50).

This proportion difference helps researchers and policymakers to identify and measure the extent of the disparity in opinions or behaviors among different segments of the population, which can have broader implications in social and economic policies.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to determine whether there is enough evidence in a data sample to infer that a certain condition is true for the entire population. In most cases, hypothesis testing involves proposing a null hypothesis, which assumes no effect or no difference, and an alternative hypothesis, which suggests there is an effect or a difference.

In the exercise, the null hypothesis would propose that there is no difference between the opinions of the two age groups, meaning \(p_{1} = p_{2}\) or \(p_{1} - p_{2} = 0\). The alternative hypothesis would state that there is a difference (\(p_{1} eq p_{2}\)) and, more specifically to our example, that \(p_{1} > p_{2}\) based on the observed data. Since our confidence interval does not include zero and is wholly positive, it provides evidence against the null hypothesis and supports the alternative hypothesis.

Thus, the hypothesis testing process complements the confidence interval analysis, both suggesting that the proportion of younger adults agreeing with the statement is statistically significantly higher than the older adults. This process forms the backbone of many scientific studies, where drawing conclusions from sample data requires careful testing and understanding of statistical principles.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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