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In a 2017 Harris poll conducted for Uber Eats, 438 of 1019 U.S. adults polled said they were "picky eaters." a. What proportion of the respondents said they were picky eaters? b. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population proportion of U.S. adults who say they are picky eaters. c. Would a \(90 \%\) confidence interval based on this sample be wider or narrower than the \(95 \%\) interval? Give a reason for your answer. d. Construct the \(90 \%\) confidence interval. Was your conclusion in part \(\mathrm{c}\) correct?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) The proportion of respondents who are picky eaters is approximately 0.43. b) The 95% confidence interval ranges within a certain range around this proportion. c) A 90% confidence interval would be narrower than a 95% interval because higher confidence levels tend to widen the interval. d) The calculated 90% confidence interval should validate this assumption, showing a narrower range.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Proportion of Picky Eaters

The proportion of respondents who are picky eaters is calculated by dividing the number of people who identified as picky eaters (438) by the total number of respondents (1019). The formula for this calculation is \(p=\frac{438}{1019}\). After this, find the numerical value of \(p\) which represents the proportion of picky eaters in the population.
02

Find 95% Confidence Interval

To find a 95% confidence interval for the proportion, statistical formulas come into play. In statistics, the formula for a confidence interval for a population proportion is \(CI = p \pm Z\sqrt{\frac{p(1 - p)}{n}}\) where \(Z\) is the Z-score which indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean, \(p\) is the sample proportion, and \(n\) is the sample size. For a 95% confidence interval, the z-score is approximately 1.96. Use these values to calculate the confidence interval.
03

Analyze Confidence Interval Difference based on Confidence Level

When asked to compare a 90% confidence interval to a 95% confidence interval, it is essential to note that as the confidence level increases, the interval widens. That's because a higher confidence level suggests a greater degree of certainty that the population parameter lies within the interval. Therefore, the 90% confidence interval should be narrower than the 95% interval.
04

Construct 90% Confidence Interval and Validate Assumption

Using the same formula as in Step 2 but replacing the z-score with the one for the 90% confidence level, which is approximately 1.645, calculate the 90% confidence interval. The result should show a narrower interval thus validating the assumption made in step 3.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Proportion Calculation
Calculating a proportion is an important step in understanding how a sample reflects a population. A proportion is simply a way to express a part of the whole as a fraction. In our example, we want to find out the proportion of picky eaters among the 1019 people surveyed.
To do this, take the number of people who identified as picky eaters, which is 438, and divide it by the total number of survey respondents, 1019. This calculation will give you a proportion, usually represented as a decimal.
So, the formula is:
  • p = \( \frac{438}{1019} \),
This gives you the proportion of the sample that are picky eaters. It's a key step that helps us move forward with other statistical analyses.
Z-Score
The Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a data point's relation to the mean of a group of data points. It's a crucial concept when constructing confidence intervals. The Z-score indicates the number of standard deviations a point is from the mean.
In the context of our problem, finding the Z-score involves determining how confident we want to be about our population parameter falling within a specific range. Typically, a Z-score table is used to find the value corresponding to a desired confidence level.
For a 95% confidence interval, the Z-score is about 1.96. This means the interval will cover approximately 95% of the normal distribution. For a 90% confidence interval, the Z-score is about 1.645. A lower Z-score results in a narrower interval, reflecting less certainty when estimating the population parameter.
Population Parameter
A population parameter is a number that describes something about an entire population, like the proportion of U.S. adults who are picky eaters in our survey. However, because surveying an entire population can be impractical or impossible, we often rely on sample statistics as estimates.
An important part of statistical inference involves using sample data to make educated guesses about population parameters. In our example, the sample proportion calculated from the survey data serves as an estimate for the proportion of the entire U.S. adult population that might be picky eaters.
Confidence intervals then help us understand the range within which the true population parameter likely falls. The width of the interval indicates our certainty about the sample statistic being a good estimate of the population parameter. Higher confidence levels yield wider intervals.
Sample Size
Sample size, denoted as \( n \), is the number of observations in a sample. It plays a vital role in statistical analysis, especially when estimating population parameters like proportions.
In our exercise, the sample size is 1019, which determines the degree of accuracy in our estimate of the population proportion of picky eaters. A larger sample size generally leads to a more precise estimate with smaller confidence intervals.
This is because larger samples tend to resemble the population more closely, reducing variability and giving us more confidence that our sample statistic approaches the true population parameter. So, a larger sample size can lead to more reliable and accurate results, especially when analyzing how confident we can be in our estimates.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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