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A vaccine to prevent severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (diarnhea) was given to African children within the first year of life as part of a drug study. The study reported that of the 3298 children randomly assigned the vaccine, 63 got the virus. Of the 1641 children randomly assigned the placebo, 80 got the virus. (Source: Madhi et al., Effect of human rotavirus vaccine on severe diarrhea in African infants, New England Journal of Medicine, vol. \(362: 289-298\), January 28,2010 ) a. Find the sample percentage of children who caught the virus in each group. Is the sample percent lower for the vaccine group, as investigators hoped? b. Determine whether the vaccine is effective in reducing the chance of catching the virus, using a significance level of \(0.05\). Steps 1 and 2 of the hypothesis-testing procedure are given. Complete the question by doing steps 3 and 4 . Step 1: \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: p_{v}=p_{p}\left(p_{v}\right.\) is the proportion that got the virus among those who took the vaccine, and \(p_{p}\) is the proportion that got the virus among those who took the placcbo.) \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{L}}: p_{e}

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sample percentages for the vaccine group and placebo group are approximately 1.91% and 4.87% respectively. Furthermore, careful calculation and comparison will show the vaccine's effectivity depends upon the significance level test.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate sample percentages

First, it’s important to calculate the sample percentage of children who caught the virus in each group. This can be done by dividing the number of children who got the virus in each group by the total number of children in that group. So, for the vaccine group, the sample percentage would be \(\frac{63}{3298} = 0.0191\) or 1.91% and for the placebo group, \(\frac{80}{1641} = 0.0487\) or 4.87%.
02

Compare the percentages

Compare the sample percentages calculated as part of step 1. If the sample percent from the vaccine group is lower than the placebo group, the vaccine is potentially effective.
03

Hypothesis Testing

The problem statement has already provided the null and alternative hypotheses as well as some of the initial calculations necessary for this step. We can summarize them as follows: Null hypothesis, \(H_{0}\): \(p_{v}=p_{p}\); Alternative hypothesis, \(H_{1}\): \(p_{v}<p_{p}\). Here, \(p_{p}\) and \(p_{v}\) represent the proportions of children who caught the virus in the placebo group and vaccine group, respectively. The problem statement also provides that the pooled proportion \(\hat{p}\) = 0.028953, and the products \(n_{p} \times \hat{p}\) for both groups are greater than 10, ensuring we meet the requirements for a significance test.
04

Statistical Significance

The last step would be to use a z-test to find the test statistic and the p-value to determine whether the difference in the proportions is statistically significant. Make sure to use the \(0.05\) significance level to evaluate the null hypothesis. If the p-value is less than \(0.05\), you can reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is one of the key concepts in hypothesis testing. It helps us determine if an effect observed in a study is likely to be real or if it could have happened by chance. In simpler terms, it's about understanding whether the differences in your findings are meaningful or if they could just be random variations.

In hypothesis testing, a significance level (often denoted as \(\alpha\)) is predetermined. Commonly, a significance level of \(0.05\) is used, which means there's a 5% chance of concluding that there is a difference when there isn't one, known as a Type I error. If the p-value obtained from the statistical test is less than \(0.05\), the result is considered statistically significant.

For the vaccine effectiveness study, after calculating the test statistic using a z-test, if the p-value is less than \(0.05\), we reject the null hypothesis. This implies that the vaccine is indeed effective, showing a lower proportion of virus cases than the placebo group. Therefore, achieving statistical significance here confirms that the difference in virus contraction rates between the vaccine and placebo groups is unlikely to have occurred by chance.
Sample Proportion
Sample proportion is a vital concept in conducting statistical analysis, especially when comparing different groups. It represents the fraction of the subjects in a sample that exhibit a particular characteristic.

In this vaccine study, the sample proportion tells us the percentage of children who contracted the virus in each of the two groups: those who were administered the vaccine and those given a placebo. You calculate it by dividing the number of children in each group who got the virus by the total number of children in the group.

  • For the vaccine group: 63 children out of 3298 got the virus, resulting in a sample proportion of \(0.0191\) or 1.91%.
  • For the placebo group: 80 children out of 1641 got the virus, resulting in a sample proportion of \(0.0487\) or 4.87%.
These sample proportions are crucial as they set the groundwork for comparing the effectiveness of the vaccine. By looking at these percentages, investigators can see if the vaccine group has a lower infection rate compared to the placebo group, which is desirable.
Random Assignment
Random assignment is a fundamental component of the experimental design, ensuring that each participant has an equal chance of being placed in any given group. This method eliminates selection bias, which might otherwise skew the results.

During the vaccine study, children were randomly assigned to either receive the vaccine or a placebo. This randomization ensures that any observed differences in the virus contraction rates between these groups can be attributed to the vaccine rather than external factors.

Moreover, random assignment strengthens the validity of the experiment by ensuring that both groups are comparable in all respects except for the intervention they receive (vaccine or placebo). This is vital for confidently attributing any difference in outcomes to the vaccine itself rather than other variables, which might have confounded the results if participants were not randomly assigned.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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