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Suppose a sample of 600 surgeries with the new scrub shows 18 infections. Find the value of the test statistic, \(z\), and explain its meaning in context. The old infection rate was \(4 \%\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The z-score is calculated using the given formula where \(p = 0.04\), \(\hat{p} = 0.03\) and \(n = 600\). The interpretation of the z-score tells whether the infection rate change is statistically significant or not.

Step by step solution

01

Convert the percentages into proportions

Before progressing with any calculations, it's necessary to convert the given infection rate from a percentage to a proportion. This can be done by dividing the percentage (4%) by 100, resulting in \(p = 0.04\).
02

Calculate the sample proportion

The sample proportion (\(\hat{p}\)) can be calculated by dividing the number of successful outcomes (infections in this case) by the total number of trials (total surgeries). This is calculated as \(\hat{p} = \frac{18}{600} = 0.03\).
03

Calculate the z score

The z score formula is given by \(z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}}\). Here \(p = 0.04\), \(\hat{p} = 0.03\) and \(n = 600\). Substituting these values into the formula will yield the z-score.
04

Interpret the z-score

The z-score tells how far an observed value is from the population mean in terms of standard deviations. A negative z-score indicates that the observed value is below the mean and a positive one shows it's above the mean. In the context of this problem, a z-score will explain how different the new infection rate is from the old one in terms of standard deviations. If z score is low then it means that difference is not statistically significant, if it's high then the difference is significant.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
Understanding the concept of sample proportion is essential when dealing with statistical analysis. It is a measure that represents the fraction of the sampled items that have a particular attribute. For example, if we are looking into the effectiveness of a new scrub on the rate of infections post-surgeries, we would look at the number of infections in our sample compared to the total number of surgeries performed.

In the mentioned exercise, we are given that there are 18 infections out of 600 surgeries. To find the sample proportion (\( \hat{p} \)) we divide the number of infections by the total number of surgeries: \( \hat{p} = \frac{18}{600} = 0.03 \). This tells us that 3% of the surgeries in the sample resulted in infections, which will be compared to the previously known infection rate.
Z Score Calculation
The z score calculation is a statistical technique used to describe a data point's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It is expressed in terms of standard deviations from the mean. A z score helps us understand how extraordinary a data point is within a distribution of values.

For our exercise related to the scrub's effectiveness, the formula to calculate the test statistic z score is \( z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}} \). Breaking it down, \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion we calculated earlier, \(p\) is the population proportion (4% or 0.04), and \(n\) is the number of trials, which is the number of surgeries (600). By substituting in the values, we would obtain a numerical z score that would indicate how far off the observed sample proportion is from the population proportion.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a critical measure in statistics that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean (or expected value) of the set, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range.

Within the context of our exercise, the standard deviation is embedded in the calculation of the z score. In the z score formula, the denominator \( \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \) represents the standard deviation of the sample proportion under the assumption of the null hypothesis. It is the root of the variance, which measures the average squared deviations from the mean proportion. Thus, the standard deviation serves as a scaling factor in the z score formula and provides a way to normalize differences.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a term used to decide whether the outcome of a study or experiment is likely caused by something other than mere chance. It addresses the reliability of the results. To assert that a result is statistically significant, the probability of the result occurring by chance must be less than a predetermined threshold value, typically 5% (represented as p-value < 0.05).

In the context of our exercise, the z score aids in determining statistical significance. If the absolute value of the calculated z score is large enough and falls beyond a certain critical value (which depends on the desired level of confidence), we can say that there is a statistically significant difference between the new scrub's infection rate and the previous infection rate of 4%. A high z-score (positive or negative) suggests that the new scrub may be significantly better or worse than the old one, depending on the direction of the difference.

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