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Suppose that the growth rate of children looks like a straight line if the height of a child is observed at the ages of 24 months, 28 months, 32 months, and 36 months. If you use the regression obtained from these ages and predict the height of the child at 21 years, you might find that the predicted height is 20 feet. What is wrong with the prediction and the process used?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The prediction that a child would be 20 feet tall at 21 years old is an example of over-extrapolation. This happened because a linear regression line, derived from a limited dataset (24 to 36 months), was improperly applied to make predictions beyond the range of the data (21 years). The rate of human growth is not strictly linear across all ages, so it's not appropriate to apply a linear model uniformly from infancy to adulthood.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Linear Regression

The first step is to understand the principle of linear regression. Linear regression is a statistical method used to create a straight line that best represents the relationship between two variables. In this case, a linear relationship is observed between the child's age (between 24 to 36 months) and the corresponding height.
02

Recognize the limitation of Linear Regression

While linear regression is a powerful tool, it has its limitations. One major limitation is that linear regression models assume that the relationship between the dependent and the independent variable is linear and constant. Here, the assumption was made that the child's growth throughout his or her life could be represented linearly, based on the growth rate between 24 and 36 months.
03

Identify the Extrapolation Error

What we did here was take a linear relationship that applies to a certain time period (24 to 36 months), and extrapolate that out to a time frame (21 years) that doesn't adhere to that linear model. This is a cardinal sin in linear regression called over-extrapolation. This is evident as the height prediction of 20 feet is exceedingly unrealistic for a 21-year old.
04

Conclusion

Remember that it's not appropriate to use a linear model to predict outcomes beyond the range of the data used to create the model, especially when it’s known that the relationship is not linear across all ranges (like human growth, which is not linear from birth to adulthood).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Linear Regression
Linear regression is a fundamental statistical technique used to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The goal is to find the linear equation, typically in the form of \( y = mx + b \), that best fits the observed data. In essence, this equation represents a straight line that best describes how changes in the independent variable(s) are associated with changes in the dependent variable.

For instance, if we consider the growth rate of children over certain months as in the given exercise, we model their height (dependent variable) as a function of their age (independent variable). However, while this model may be suitable for the ages of 24 to 36 months, it's a simplified representation that might not hold true at different life stages. Hence, understanding the context and applicable range for linear regression is crucial for its proper application.
Extrapolation Error
One of the key misunderstandings with linear regression arises when we venture into a territory known as 'extrapolation'. Extrapolation involves extending the regression model beyond the range of the observed data to make predictions. This might indicate the prediction of a child's height at the age of 21 based on data from early childhood years.

However, such predictions can rapidly become unreliable, as demonstrated by the absurd height of 20 feet suggested for a 21-year-old. Linear regression is accurate only within the range of the variables it's been modeled on. When the model is applied to values outside of this range, the predictions can be substantially off, resulting in an 'extrapolation error'. Recognizing the limits of our data is vital to avoid these errors.
Limitations of Linear Regression Models
While linear regression is a powerful predictive tool, it's essential to be aware of its limitations in practice. One of the primary limitations is the model's assumption of a linear relationship between the variables across all ranges. This is potentially problematic because many relationships in the real world are not linear throughout and can change over different intervals.

Furthermore, a linear regression model is sensitive to anomalies and may not be robust to outliers in the data. The model assumes that all variables are error-free and normally distributed, which is rarely the case. Ignoring these limitations can lead to an overreliance on the predictions made by the model, sometimes with nonsensical outcomes, as highlighted in the exercise with the prediction of a 20-foot-tall adult.
Statistical Method Analysis
To evaluate the effectiveness and appropriateness of a statistical method like linear regression, methodical analysis is vital. This includes understanding the nature of the data, such as the distribution of the variables, presence of outliers, and the actual relationship between the variables. Ideally, before applying a model, preliminary data analysis helps determine if linear regression is a suitable tool.

An accurate statistical analysis would involve checking the validity of model assumptions, assessing the model's fit, and confirming that predictions are reasonable. Data should be within the scope of the model's design, and alternative modeling approaches should be considered when linear regression is not suitable. In the case of human growth, we know that the rate of growth declines after puberty, indicating that a non-linear model would be a better fit for predicting height well into adulthood.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The table gives data on the heights (above ground) of the left and right seats of a see-saw (in feet). Assume the trend is linear, calculate the correlation, and explain what it shows. $$ \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \text { Left } & \text { Right } \\ \hline 4 & 0 \\ \hline 3 & 1 \\ \hline 2 & 2 \\ \hline 1 & 3 \\ \hline 0 & 4 \\ \hline \end{array} $$

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The table shows some data from a sample of heights of fathers and their sons. The scatterplot (not shown) suggests a linear trend. a. Find and report the regression equation for predicting the son's height from the father's height. Then predict the height of a son with a father 74 inches tall. Also predict the height of a son of a father who is 65 inches tall. b. Find and report the regression equation for predicting the father's height from the son's height. Then predict a father's height from that of a son who is 74 inches tall and also predict a father's height from that of a son who is 65 inches tall. c. What phenomenon does this show? $$ \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \text { Father's Height } & \text { Son's Height } \\ \hline 75 & 74 \\ \hline 72.5 & 71 \\ \hline 72 & 71 \\ \hline 71 & 73 \\ \hline 71 & 68.5 \\ \hline 70 & 70 \\ \hline 69 & 69 \\ \hline 69 & 66.5 \\ \hline 69 & 72 \\ \hline 68.5 & 66.5 \\ \hline 67.5 & 65.5 \\ \hline 67.5 & 70 \\ \hline 67 & 67 \\ \hline 65.5 & 64.5 \\ \hline 64 & 67 \\ \hline \end{array} $$

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