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According to statistics reported on CNBC, a surprising number of motor vehicles are not covered by insurance (CNBC, February 23,2006 ). Sample results, consistent with the CNBC report, showed 46 of 200 vehicles were not covered by insurance. a. What is the point estimate of the proportion of vehicles not covered by insurance? b. Develop a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population proportion.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Point estimate: 0.23, 95% confidence interval: [0.1708, 0.2892].

Step by step solution

01

Identifying the Sample Proportion

To find the point estimate of the population proportion, first determine the sample proportion. In this scenario, 46 out of 200 vehicles were not covered by insurance. So, the sample proportion, \( \hat{p} \), is calculated as follows: \[ \hat{p} = \frac{46}{200} = 0.23 \].
02

Calculating the Standard Error

The standard error for the sample proportion is calculated using the formula \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \), where \( \hat{p} = 0.23 \) and \( n = 200 \). Therefore, \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.23 \times (1 - 0.23)}{200}} \approx 0.0302 \].
03

Finding the Z-Value for a 95% Confidence Interval

For a 95% confidence interval, the Z-value (Z-score) is typically 1.96, which is derived from the standard normal distribution table.
04

Computing the Confidence Interval

The 95% confidence interval for the population proportion is calculated using the formula \( \hat{p} \pm Z \times SE \). Substitute the values: \[ 0.23 \pm 1.96 \times 0.0302 \]. This calculates to \[ 0.23 \pm 0.0592 \], giving a confidence interval of \([0.1708, 0.2892]\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
In statistical terms, the point estimate is a single value that serves as an estimate of a population parameter. It is derived from a sample and provides the best estimate of that unknown parameter. In practice, when you have a sample of data, such as the number of uninsured vehicles, the point estimate helps summarize the data with a single number.

For instance, considering the original exercise where 46 out of 200 vehicles were uninsured, the point estimate of the proportion of vehicles without insurance is computed by dividing the number of uninsured vehicles by the total number of vehicles in the sample. This fraction gives us the sample proportion. Hence,
  • Point Estimate: 0.23 (or 23%)
This means our best estimate of the proportion of uninsured vehicles is 23% based on the sample data.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion, often represented by the symbol \( \hat{p} \), is a key concept when estimating a population proportion. It reflects the ratio of the number of successful outcomes to the total number of trials in a sample.

In our sample of 200 vehicles, 46 were uninsured. The sample proportion, therefore, is calculated as:
  • Sample Proportion \( \hat{p} = \frac{46}{200} = 0.23 \)
This sample proportion of 0.23 is simply the observed probability in the sample that a vehicle is uninsured, and it forms the basis of our point estimate. It’s a straightforward way to glean insights about the population at large from a smaller set of data.
Standard Error
Standard error is an important concept in statistics, specifically when estimating population parameters based on sample data. It measures the variability or precision of a sample estimate, such as a sample proportion. This variability arises because different samples will produce different estimates.

The standard error of the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is determined by the formula:\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\]In our example:
  • \( \hat{p} = 0.23 \)
  • \( n = 200 \)
  • Standard Error \( SE \approx 0.0302 \)
A smaller standard error suggests that the sample proportion is a more accurate reflection of the true population proportion. In this case, a standard error of roughly 0.0302 indicates the degree of spread or inconsistency in different samples.
Population Proportion
The population proportion is the true proportion of members of a population that have a particular characteristic. In context, it refers to the actual percentage of all vehicles that are uninsured. While it is typically unknown, we use sample data to estimate this proportion and build confidence intervals around it.

In statistics, we form a confidence interval to give us a range within which we believe the true population proportion lies. For instance, in the original exercise, a 95% confidence interval was found to be
  • Confidence Interval: [0.1708, 0.2892]
This interval suggests that we are 95% confident that the proportion of all uninsured vehicles lies between 17.08% and 28.92%. This helps quantify the uncertainty in our estimate and provides insights into the possible range of the actual population parameter.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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