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The average stock price for companies making up the \(\mathrm{S\&P} 500\) is \(\$ 30,\) and the standard deviation is \(\$ 8.20\) (BusinessWeek, Special Annual Issue, Spring 2003 ). Assume the stock prices are normally distributed. a. What is the probability a company will have a stock price of at least \(\$ 40 ?\) b. What is the probability a company will have a stock price no higher than \(\$ 20 ?\) c. How high does a stock price have to be to put a company in the top \(10 \% ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.1112; b) 0.1112; c) $40.50 approximately.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Given Data

We have the average (mean) stock price as \( \mu = 30 \) and the standard deviation \( \sigma = 8.20 \). The stock prices follow a normal distribution.
02

Standardize the Variables

Convert the stock prices to \( z \)-scores using the formula: \( z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \). This helps us use the standard normal distribution table.
03

Calculate Z-Score for Part a

For part (a), where we need \( x = 40 \), \( z = \frac{40 - 30}{8.20} = \frac{10}{8.20} \approx 1.22 \).
04

Find Probability for Z-Score in Part a

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, the probability for \( z \geq 1.22 \) translates to P(Z \ > 1.22) = 0.1112. Thus, the probability that a company has a stock price greater than \( \$40 \) is approximately 0.1112.
05

Calculate Z-Score for Part b

For part (b), where \( x = 20 \), \( z = \frac{20 - 30}{8.20} = \frac{-10}{8.20} \approx -1.22 \).
06

Find Probability for Z-Score in Part b

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, the probability for \( z \leq -1.22 \) translates to P(Z \ < -1.22) = 0.1112. Thus, the probability that a company has a stock price no higher than \( \$20 \) is approximately 0.1112.
07

Determine Z-Score for Top 10%

For part (c), the top 10% corresponds to the 90th percentile. From the normal distribution table, the z-score for the 90th percentile is approximately 1.28.
08

Calculate Stock Price for Top 10%

Convert the z-score back to a stock price using \( x = \mu + z\sigma \). Thus, \( x = 30 + 1.28 \times 8.20 \). Therefore, \( x \approx 40.50 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z-Score Calculation
Let's dive into the concept of z-scores, a valuable tool for understanding how a particular data point compares to the average in a dataset. The z-score indicates how many standard deviations a data point is from the mean.
The z-score formula is:
  • \( z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \)
Here, \(x\) represents the data point of interest, \(\mu\) is the mean, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
This formula allows us to transform any data point into a standardized value.
When you calculate a z-score, you're essentially ranking a specific value in relation to all other values in a normal distribution.
If the z-score is positive, the data point is above the mean; if negative, it’s below the mean.
This standardization makes it possible to compare data from different distributions.
Probability
Probability in connection to normal distribution measures the likelihood of an event occurring within a specified range of values.
In terms of the normal curve, this is often about finding the area under the curve.
Normal distributions are symmetrical, so probabilities for values around the mean are relatively high. As you move away from the mean, probabilities decrease.
To find the probability of an event given a normal distribution, we convert the value of interest to a z-score, then use a z-table or technology to find out the probability associated with this z-score.
This method enables us to determine:
  • The probability of a value being less than a given x-value (left-tailed probability).
  • The probability of a value being greater than a given x-value (right-tailed probability).
Overall, understanding probability in a normal distribution context helps us to quantify uncertainty in various contexts such as finance and quality control.
Percentile
A percentile is a measure used to express the standing of one value in relation to a dataset. Imagine requesting the height of students in a school and ordering it from the shortest to tallest.
A student's height in the 90th percentile means they are taller than 90% of their peers.
Percentiles help compare values across different datasets or distributions by giving a rank based on a percentage of the dataset.
To find what value represents a certain percentile in a normal distribution, we typically revert the z-score to a data point.
This is done using:
  • \( x = \mu + z \cdot \sigma \)
For instance, finding the 90th percentile involves determining the z-score corresponding to the 90% mark in the distribution.
The percentile concept is widely used in statistics and everyday life, particularly in evaluations and assessments, as it provides a standard measure for understanding relative positions within a dataset.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Given that \(z\) is a standard normal random variable, compute the following probabilities. a. \(\quad P(0 \leq z \leq .83)\) b. \(\quad P(-1.57 \leq z \leq 0)\) c. \(\quad P(z>.44)\) d. \(P(z \geq-.23)\) e. \(\quad P(z<1.20)\) f. \(\quad P(z \leq-.71)\)

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Most computer languages include a function that can be used to generate random numbers. In Excel, the RAND function can be used to generate random numbers between 0 and \(1 .\) If we let \(x\) denote a random number generated using \(\mathrm{RAND}\), then \(x\) is a continuous random variable with the following probability density function. \\[f(x)=\left\\{\begin{array}{ll}1 & \text { for } 0 \leq x \leq 1 \\\0 & \text { elsewhere }\end{array}\right.\\] a. Graph the probability density function. b. What is the probability of generating a random number between .25 and \(.75 ?\) c. What is the probability of generating a random number with a value less than or equal to \(.30 ?\) d. What is the probability of generating a random number with a value greater than \(.60 ?\) e. Generate 50 random numbers by entering \(=\mathrm{RAND}\) () into 50 cells of an Excel worksheet. f. Compute the mean and standard deviation for the random numbers in part (e).

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