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Nine percent of undergraduate students carry credit card balances greater than \(\$ 7000\) (Reader's Digest, July 2002 ). Suppose 10 undergraduate students are selected randomly to be interviewed about credit card usage. a. Is the selection of 10 students a binomial experiment? Explain. b. What is the probability that two of the students will have a credit card balance greater than \(\$ 7000 ?\) c. What is the probability that none will have a credit card balance greater than \(\$ 7000 ?\) d. What is the probability that at least three will have a credit card balance greater than \(\$ 7000 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes. The probabilities are 0.1935 for two students, 0.3874 for none, and 0.0317 for at least three.

Step by step solution

01

Determine if the Experiment is Binomial

A binomial experiment must meet four criteria: a fixed number of trials, two possible outcomes, independent trials, and a constant probability of success. Here, selecting 10 students is the fixed number of trials. Each student either has a balance greater than $7000 or not, representing the two possible outcomes. The selections are independent, and the probability of a student having a balance greater than $7000 is constant at 0.09. Thus, this is a binomial experiment.
02

Calculate the Probability of Two Students

For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly k successes in n trials is given by the formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where \( n = 10 \), \( k = 2 \), and \( p = 0.09 \). Calculating: \[ P(X = 2) = \binom{10}{2} (0.09)^2 (0.91)^8 \] Use a calculator to find the value of \( \binom{10}{2} \), which is 45. Then,\[ P(X = 2) = 45 \times 0.0081 \times 0.43789389 \approx 0.1935 \].
03

Calculate the Probability of No Students

Substitute \( k = 0 \) into the binomial probability formula: \[ P(X = 0) = \binom{10}{0} (0.09)^0 (0.91)^{10} \] \( \binom{10}{0} = 1 \) and \( (0.09)^0 = 1 \) so it simplifies to: \[ P(X = 0) = 1 \times 0.91351724 \approx 0.3874 \]
04

Calculate the Probability of At Least Three Students

We aim for \( P(X \geq 3) \), which is \( 1 - P(X < 3) \). First calculate: \[ P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) \] From previous steps, \( P(X = 0) \approx 0.3874 \), \( P(X = 2) \approx 0.1935 \). Calculate \( P(X = 1) \): \[ P(X = 1) = \binom{10}{1} (0.09)^1 (0.91)^9 \approx 0.3874 \] Thus, \[ P(X < 3) \approx 0.3874 + 0.3874 + 0.1935 = 0.9683 \] Finally, \[ P(X \geq 3) = 1 - 0.9683 = 0.0317 \].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is essential in predicting how likely certain events are to occur. In a binomial experiment, this involves determining the probability of a given number of successes in a set number of trials. For the example with students' credit card balances, we're interested in figuring out the likelihood of different numbers of students having balances over $7000. These probabilities can be calculated using the binomial distribution formula. This formula helps us find probabilities by combining the number of successful outcomes with the probability of each outcome happening. The probabilities are derived from factors such as the number of trials, the number of successful outcomes we're interested in, and the probability of each of those successes.
Independent Trials
In a binomial experiment, each trial is considered independent. This concept of independent trials is crucial because it implies that the outcome of one trial does not impact the outcome of another. For instance, when selecting and interviewing 10 undergraduate students about their credit card balances, each student’s response doesn't affect another’s.

This independence helps maintain the validity of probability calculations. Each student's probability of having a balance over $7000 stays constant, which is vital for ensuring that we're truly modelling a binomial experiment. Independence in trials ensures the stability of these probability settings over each trial.
Binomial Formula
The binomial formula is central to analyzing binomial experiments, offering a mathematical way to calculate probabilities. It’s expressed as: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where:
  • \( n \) is the total number of trials (in this case, 10 students).
  • \( k \) is the number of successful outcomes you're measuring (e.g., number of students with a balance over $7000).
  • \( p \) is the probability of success on a single trial (0.09 in this scenario).
This formula provides the probability of getting exactly \( k \) successes out of \( n \) trials, blending combinatorial selection from \( n \) items, raised probabilities of success and failure, and their respective occurrences.
Statistical Analysis
Statistical analysis involves using data to draw conclusions and make predictions. Within the context of our binomial experiment, it allows us to systematically evaluate the likelihood of different outcomes. By calculating probabilities outlined in the steps, we can infer meaningful interpretations.

For example, by analyzing the probabilities of no students having balances over $7000, two students, or at least three students, we gain insight into common trends or unusual occurrences. This statistical analysis is vital for making informed decisions or further predictions, as it quantitatively assesses probabilities in a structured way. Statistical analysis helps transform raw data into knowledge, revealing patterns that might not be evident at first glance.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Airline passengers arrive randomly and independently at the passenger- screening facility at a major international airport. The mean arrival rate is 10 passengers per minute. a. Compute the probability of no arrivals in a one-minute period. b. Compute the probability that three or fewer passengers arrive in a one- minute period. c. Compute the probability of no arrivals in a 15 -second period. d. Compute the probability of at least one arrival in a 15 -second period.

Three students scheduled interviews for summer employment at the Brookwood Institute. In each case the interview results in either an offer for a position or no offer. Experimental outcomes are defined in terms of the results of the three interviews. a. List the experimental outcomes. b. Define a random variable that represents the number of offers made. Is the random variable continuous? c. Show the value of the random variable for each of the experimental outcomes.

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Blackjack, or twenty-one as it is frequently called, is a popular gambling game played in Las Vegas casinos. A player is dealt two cards. Face cards (jacks, queens, and kings) and tens have a point value of \(10 .\) Aces have a point value of 1 or \(11 .\) A 52 -card deck contains 16 cards with a point value of 10 (jacks, queens, kings, and tens) and four aces. a. What is the probability that both cards dealt are aces or 10 -point cards? b. What is the probability that both of the cards are aces? c. What is the probability that both of the cards have a point value of \(10 ?\) d. A blackjack is a 10 -point card and an ace for a value of \(21 .\) Use your answers to parts (a), (b), and (c) to determine the probability that a player is dealt blackjack. (Hint: Part (d) is not a hypergeometric problem. Develop your own logical relationship as to how the hypergeometric probabilities from parts (a), (b), and (c) can be combined to answer this question.)

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