91影视

The number of times Democrats were selected first out of 41 ballots is 40.

The significance level is 0.01.

The claim requires testing if the ballot selection favors Democrats.

Let p be the proportion of selections that favors the Democrats.

Null hypothesis: The ballot selection method does not support the Democrats.

Alternative hypothesis: The ballot selection method favors the Democrats.

Mathematically,

\(\begin{array}{l}{H_0}:p = 0.5\\{H_1}:p > 0.5\end{array}\)

In testing the population proportion based on the sample proportion, the z-test is used.

The sample proportion is given as follows.

\(\begin{array}{c}\hat p = \frac{{40}}{{41}}\\ = 0.9756\end{array}\).

From the given information,

\(\begin{array}{c}p = 0.5\\q = 1 - p\\ = 1 - 0.5\\ = 0.5\end{array}\).

The test statistic is as follows.

\(\begin{array}{c}z = \frac{{\hat p - p}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{pq}}{n}} }}\\ = \frac{{0.9756 - 0.5}}{{\sqrt {\frac{{0.5 \times 0.5}}{{41}}} }}\\ = 6.0908\end{array}\).

Thus, the test statistic is 6.09.

The critical value for the right-tailed test is expressed as follows.

\(\begin{array}{c}P\left( {Z > {z_\alpha }} \right) = \alpha \\P\left( {Z > {z_{0.01}}} \right) = 0.01\end{array}\)

From the z-table, the critical value for a one-tailed test with a 0.01 significance level is obtained as 2.33 (corresponding to rows 2.3 and 0.03).

If the test statistic is greater than the critical value, reject the null hypothesis. Otherwise, fail to reject the null hypothesis.

The test statistic value of 6.09 is greater than 2.33. Therefore, reject\({H_0}\).

Thus, there is significant evidence to support the claim that the ballot selection method favors the Democrats.