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Expected Value for Life Insurance There is a 0.9968 probability that a randomly selected 50-year-old female lives through the year (based on data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services). A Fidelity life insurance company charges \(226 for insuring that the female will live through the year. If she does not survive the year, the policy pays out \)50,000 as a death benefit.

a. From the perspective of the 50-year-old female, what are the values corresponding to the two events of surviving the year and not surviving.

b. If a 50-year-old female purchases the policy, what is her expected value?

c. Can the insurance company expect to make a profit from many such policies? Why

Short Answer

Expert verified

a. From the perspective of the 50-year oldfemale, the monetary value of the event of surviving through the year is equal to -$226, and the monetary value for the event not surviving is equal to $49,774.

b. The expected value of purchasing an insurance policy is equal to -66 dollars.

c. The insurance company makes a lot of profit by selling many such policies because the insurance company earns 66 dollars on each policy sold.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The probability of a 50-year oldfemale living through the year is equal to 0.9968.

The insurance company charges $226 for one year and gives $50,000 on the death of a woman.

02

Monetary values

a.

The monetary value of the event of surviving through the year is equal to -$226 as the charges of the insurance policy need to be paid.

Corresponding to the event of not surviving, any particular woman will receive $50,000.

Therefore, the corresponding monetary value is equal to the following:

50,000-226=49,774dollars

Thus, the monetary value of the event not surviving is equal to $49,774.

03

Expected value

b.

The expected value of purchasing the insurance policy is equal to the following:

Expectedvalue=NetamountreceivedProbabilityofnotsurviving-NetamountgivenProbabilityofsurviving=497741-0.9968-2260.9968=-66dollars

Thus, the expected value of purchasing an insurance policy is equal to -66 dollars.

04

Profit for the insurance company

c.

Since on each policy sold, the insurance company earns 66 dollars, the insurance company makes a lot of profit by selling many such policies.

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