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Use the given data to find the minimum sample size required to estimate a population proportion or percentage. You are the operations manager for American Airlines and you are considering a higher fare level for passengers in aisle seats. You want to estimate the percentage of passengers who now prefer aisle seats. How many randomly selected air passengers must you survey? Assume that you want to be \(95 \%\) confident that the sample percentage is within 2.5 percentage points of the true population percentage. a. Assume that nothing is known about the percentage of passengers who prefer aisle seats. b. Assume that a prior survey suggests that about \(38 \%\) of air passengers prefer an aisle seat (based on a \(3 \mathrm{M}\) Privacy Filters survey).

Short Answer

Expert verified
Part (a): 1537. Part (b): 1447.

Step by step solution

01

- Understand the Problem

We need to determine the minimum sample size required to estimate the percentage of air passengers who prefer aisle seats. We want our estimate to be within 2.5 percentage points of the true population proportion with 95% confidence.
02

- Identify the Formula

The formula for determining the sample size for estimating a population proportion is given by: \[ n = \frac{{Z^2 \times p \times (1-p)}}{{E^2}} \] where \( n \) = required sample size \( Z \) = Z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level \( p \) = estimated population proportion \( E \) = margin of error.
03

- Determine the Components for Part (a)

For part (a), we assume nothing is known about the proportion who prefer aisle seats. Hence, we use the maximum variability of 0.5 for \( p \).
04

- Calculate the Z-Score

For a 95% confidence level, the Z-score is approximately 1.96.
05

- Compute the Sample Size for Part (a)

Using \( p = 0.5 \) and \( E = 0.025 \): \[ n = \frac{{(1.96)^2 \times 0.5 \times (1-0.5)}}{{(0.025)^2}} \] \[ n = \frac{{3.8416 \times 0.25}}{{0.000625}} \] \[ n = \frac{{0.9604}}{{0.000625}} \] \[ n = 1536.64 \] Rounding up, the required sample size is 1537.
06

- Determine the Components for Part (b)

For part (b), we are given an estimated proportion \( p = 0.38 \).
07

- Compute the Sample Size for Part (b)

Using \( p = 0.38 \) and \( E = 0.025 \): \[ n = \frac{{(1.96)^2 \times 0.38 \times (1-0.38)}}{{(0.025)^2}} \] \[ n = \frac{{3.8416 \times 0.2356}}{{0.000625}} \] \[ n = \frac{{0.9041}}{{0.000625}} \] \[ n = 1446.56 \] Rounding up, the required sample size is 1447.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

confidence interval
Imagine you're trying to estimate the percentage of air passengers who prefer aisle seats. You want a window around your estimate that tells you how confident you are in this guess. That's called a confidence interval.
A confidence interval gives you a range of values that you're fairly sure the true population parameter (e.g., the actual percentage of all passengers who prefer aisle seats) lies within.
For instance, if you say you're 95% confident that the true percentage of passengers preferring aisle seats is between 35% and 45%, your confidence interval is 35% to 45%. The 95% confidence level means that if you were to take 100 different samples and compute a confidence interval for each, we'd expect about 95 of them to contain the true population parameter.
margin of error
When you conduct a survey, your results might not be exactly pinpoint accurate. The margin of error helps you understand how far off your sample results might be from the true population value.
The margin of error is typically expressed as a percentage and gives you the radius of the range. It tells you how much you can expect your survey results to differ from the actual population percentage. For example, if your survey says 50% of passengers prefer aisle seats and your margin of error is 2.5%, then you believe the true percentage is between 47.5% and 52.5%.
The margin of error becomes smaller when you have a larger sample size. So, if you want more precise results, you need to survey more people.
population proportion
The population proportion is the fraction of the entire population that has a particular attribute of interest. For example, in your survey, it's the proportion of all air passengers who prefer aisle seats. Let’s denote population proportion by the symbol p.
If you don't know this value, you can sometimes use 0.5 (maximum variability), but it's better to use a prior survey result if available. In our exercise, previous data suggests 38% of passengers prefer aisle seats, so p = 0.38.
Using a correct population proportion helps provide accurate sample size calculations and confidence intervals, ensuring your data collection is effective and meaningful.
Z-score
The Z-score tells you how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. In sample size calculations for confidence intervals, it reflects how confident you want to be that your interval captures the true population parameter.
Common Z-scores are:
  • 1.645 for 90% confidence
  • 1.96 for 95% confidence
  • 2.576 for 99% confidence
For a 95% confidence level, our Z-score is 1.96.
Essentially, a higher Z-score means you're more certain about your estimate, but it also means you'll need a larger sample to achieve that level of certainty. So, there's a balance between being confident in your results and the effort required to gather data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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