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Use the data and confidence level to construct a confidence interval estimate of \(p,\) then address the given question. The drug OxyContin (oxycodone) is used to treat pain, but it is dangerous because it is addictive and can be lethal. In clinical trials, 227 subjects were treated with OxyContin and 52 of them developed nausea (based on data from Purdue Pharma L.P.). a. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval estimate of the percentage of OxyContin users who develop nausea. b. Compare the result from part (a) to this \(95 \%\) confidence interval for 5 subjects who developed nausea among the 45 subjects given a placebo instead of OxyContin: \(1.93 \%

Short Answer

Expert verified
\( 52/227 \pm 1.96 \cdot \sqrt{\frac{52/227 \cdot (1 - 52/227)}{227}} \). Compare with 1.93% < p < 20.3%.

Step by step solution

01

Define the sample proportion and sample size

Calculate the sample proportion. There are 227 subjects, and 52 developed nausea. The sample proportion, \(\hat{p}\), is calculated as \(\frac{52}{227}\).
02

Determine the z-score for the desired confidence level

For a 95% confidence interval, the z-score is approximately 1.96.
03

Calculate the standard error (SE)

The standard error is calculated using the formula \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}} \]. Using \(\hat{p} = \frac{52}{227}\) and \(n = 227\), compute the SE.
04

Construct the confidence interval

The confidence interval is calculated using the formula \[ \hat{p} \pm Z_{\alpha/2} \cdot SE \]. Using \(\hat{p} = \frac{52}{227} \), \( SE\), and \(Z_{\alpha/2} = 1.96\), compute the interval.
05

Compare the results

Compare the 95% confidence interval obtained in Step 4 to the given interval of 1.93% < p < 20.3% for the placebo group. Discuss any overlapping or differences and the implications.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
In statistics, the sample proportion is a measure that estimates the proportion of a certain characteristic within a sample from a population. It is denoted as \(\text{\hat{p}}\). In the given problem, 227 subjects were treated with OxyContin, and 52 of them developed nausea. To calculate the sample proportion, we use the formula: \(\text{\hat{p}} = \frac{52}{227}\).
This gives an estimate of how many of the subjects experienced nausea due to the treatment. By understanding the sample proportion, we can make inferences about the population from which the sample was drawn. This is especially useful in clinical trials to determine the effect of a drug or treatment. Calculating the sample proportion is the first step in many statistical analyses, including constructing confidence intervals.
Z-Score
The z-score is a statistical measure that describes the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean of the data set. In the context of confidence intervals, the z-score is used to determine the critical value for the chosen confidence level. For a 95% confidence level, the z-score is approximately 1.96.
This value is derived from the standard normal distribution and indicates the range within which we expect the true population parameter to lie, 95% of the time. In our exercise, we use the z-score to calculate the margin of error for the confidence interval. The z-score is crucial because it translates the confidence level into a quantifiable boundary for estimating the population proportion.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) measures the variability or dispersion of a sample statistic (like the sample proportion) from the true population parameter. The formula for the standard error of a sample proportion is given by: \(\text{SE} = \text{\sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}}}\), where \(\text{\hat{p}}\) is the sample proportion, and \(\text{n}\) is the sample size.
Using our example, with \(\text{\hat{p}} = \text{\frac{52}{227}}\) and \(\text{n} = 227\), we calculate the standard error to quantify the precision of our sample proportion estimate. The smaller the standard error, the more precise the estimate. Understanding standard error is essential for constructing accurate confidence intervals and making reliable statistical inferences.
Placebo Comparison
In clinical trials, a placebo is an inactive substance given to a control group to compare with the actual drug being tested. The purpose is to isolate the drug's effect by comparing outcomes between the treatment group and the placebo group. In our exercise, the placebo group's data provided a confidence interval of 1.93% < \( \text{p} \) < 20.3% for 5 subjects developing nausea out of 45.
Comparing this to the OxyContin group's confidence interval helps determine if the nausea is significantly higher for those treated with the drug. Analyzing these intervals allows us to conclude if the drug causes more nausea than the placebo. This is a crucial step in evaluating the safety and efficacy of new treatments.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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