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Find the probability.At Least One. In Exercises \(5-12,\) find the probability. In the United States, the true probability of a baby being a boy is 0.512 (based on the data available at this writing). Among the next six randomly selected births in the United States, what is the probability that at least one of them is a girl?

Short Answer

Expert verified
0.9791

Step by step solution

01

Identify the given values

The probability of a baby being a boy, denoted as P(Boy), is 0.512. Therefore, the probability of a baby being a girl, P(Girl), is 1 - P(Boy) = 1 - 0.512 = 0.488. The number of births, n, is 6.
02

Define 'at least one' in probability terms

'At least one' can be found using the complement rule. Calculate the probability that there is no girl (all boys), and then subtract this from 1 to find the probability that there is at least one girl.
03

Calculate the probability of having no girls

The probability of all six babies being boys is found by raising the probability of one boy to the power of 6. Therefore, P(All Boys) = P(Boy)^6 = 0.512^6.
04

Compute the numerical value

Calculate 0.512^6. Using a calculator, 0.512^6 ≈ 0.0209.
05

Calculate the probability of at least one girl

The probability of at least one girl is then given by P(At least one girl) = 1 - P(All Boys) = 1 - 0.0209.
06

Final calculation

Subtract to find the final probability: 1 - 0.0209 = 0.9791.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Complement Rule
In probability, the complement rule is a handy tool. It helps us find the likelihood of an event happening by looking at the opposite case. In our problem, we need to find the probability of having at least one girl among six babies. Instead of directly calculating this, we first calculate the chance of having no girls (only boys) and then subtract this from 1. This approach is effective because it's often easier to calculate the probability of the complement. Specifically, the complement rule is stated as: \( P(A') = 1 - P(A) \), where \( P(A') \) is the probability of the event not occurring. Here, our event is having at least one girl, and the complement of this event is having no girls at all.
Binomial Probability
The binomial probability formula is crucial when we have a fixed number of trials with two possible outcomes: success and failure. In our example, each birth is a trial with two outcomes: boy or girl. We're interested in at least one success (girl) in 6 trials (births).
The base formula for binomial probability is: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \], where \( p \) is the success probability (girl being 0.488), \( n \) is the total number of trials (6), and \( k \) is the number of successes. Although calculating directly with binomial might be tedious, using the complement rule with binomial probability for zero successes (all boys) simplifies our task.
Statistical Analysis
Statistical analysis involves using data to make predictions and decisions. It helps us figure out the likelihood of outcomes, like having at least one girl in six births.
First, we identified the key probabilities: 0.512 for a boy and 0.488 for a girl. Then, we chose the complement rule to simplify our calculations. By raising the probability of one boy to the power of 6, we found the chance of having no girls (0.0209). Subtracting this from 1 showed the probability of having at least one girl (0.9791).
These steps show how statistical methods break complex problems into manageable tasks.
Probability of Events
Understanding probability involves breaking down the chances of different outcomes. In our example, we examine the probability of having various combinations of boys and girls in six births. By using the complement rule and binomial probability, we efficiently solve the problem.
Probabilities are the backbone of statistical analysis, helping us predict scenarios and make informed decisions. We learned that calculating the probability of complementary events is often simpler. This means looking at what we don't want, and understanding that the universe of outcomes must add up to 1.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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