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91Ó°ÊÓ

Use the given probability value to determine whether the sample results could easily occur by chance, then form a conclusion.A study addressed the issue of whether pregnant women can correctly predict the gender of their baby. Among 104 pregnant women, 57 correctly predicted the gender of their baby (based on data from "Are Women Carrying 'Basketballs'. by Perry, DiPietro, Constigan, Birth, Vol. 26, No. 3). If pregnant women have no such ability, there is a 0.327 probability of getting such sample results by chance. What do you conclude?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The results could easily occur by chance, so there is no evidence that pregnant women can accurately predict their baby's gender.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the given data

The given data includes the number of pregnant women (104), the number of correct gender predictions (57), and the probability of such sample results occurring by chance (0.327).
02

Understand the probability value

A probability value of 0.327 means there is a 32.7% chance that the results (57 out of 104 pregnant women predicting the gender correctly) could occur by chance if pregnant women have no actual ability to predict the gender.
03

Analyze how this probability affects conclusions

Compare the probability value (0.327) to a standard significance level, usually 0.05 (5%). If the probability of the results occurring by chance is greater than the significance level, the results are considered likely to occur by chance.
04

Formulate your conclusion

Since 0.327 is much greater than 0.05, the sample results (57 out of 104 correctly predicting the baby’s gender) could easily occur by chance. Therefore, there is no strong evidence to suggest that pregnant women can predict their baby’s gender better than random chance.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

statistical significance
Statistical significance helps us determine if the observed results in a study are due to a specific cause or are just a random occurrence. When working with sample data, we compare our probability value to a predetermined significance level, typically set at 0.05 (or 5%).

In the given exercise, the sample probability value is 0.327, which means there is a 32.7% chance that the observed results occurred by random luck. Since 0.327 is much higher than 0.05, we conclude that the results are not statistically significant. This indicates that the observed outcome (57 out of 104 pregnant women correctly predicting their baby's gender) could easily happen by random chance, suggesting no strong evidence of prediction ability.
probability value
The probability value (or p-value) quantifies the likelihood that the observed results occurred by chance. It helps in hypothesis testing by comparing the probability of obtaining the sample results to a significance level (typically 0.05).

For example, a p-value of 0.327 shows a 32.7% chance that the observed results (57 correct predictions out of 104) could happen randomly, assuming no prediction ability of pregnant women. Since this p-value is substantially higher than the 0.05 significance level, it supports the idea that random chance could easily explain the sample results.
hypothesis testing
Hypothesis testing is a method used to make statistical decisions using experimental data. It involves forming two hypotheses: the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternative hypothesis (H1).

The null hypothesis (H0) represents a statement of no effect or no difference. In this exercise, H0 states that pregnant women cannot predict their baby's gender better than random chance. The alternative hypothesis (H1) is the statement that contradicts H0, suggesting an effect or difference—in this case, that pregnant women can predict gender.

We use probability values to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. If the p-value is less than the significance level (0.05), H0 is rejected in favor of H1. In the given problem, the high p-value of 0.327 leads us to not reject H0, supporting the conclusion that there is no strong evidence of prediction ability among pregnant women.
sample results analysis
Sample results analysis involves examining the data collected from a study to make meaningful inferences. This process considers the sample size, observed outcomes, and probability values.

In our study, we analyzed data from 104 pregnant women, out of which 57 predicted their baby's gender correctly. We calculated the probability value (0.327) to understand how likely these results could occur by chance. Since the p-value was higher than the 0.05 threshold, it's concluded that the observed results could easily happen randomly.

By analyzing the sample results in this manner, we determine that there is no substantial evidence suggesting pregnant women can predict their baby's gender beyond random chance.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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