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Same Birthdays If 25 people are randomly selected, find the probability that no 2 of them have the same birthday. Ignore leap years.

Short Answer

Expert verified
0.431

Step by step solution

01

- Understand the Problem

We need to calculate the probability that no two out of 25 randomly selected people share the same birthday. This problem can be approached by considering the complement of the event where at least two people share a birthday and using the concept of permutations.
02

- Total Possible Outcomes

First, calculate the total number of possible outcomes for the birthdays of the 25 people. Since each of the 25 people can have any of the 365 days as their birthday, the total number of possible combinations is \(365^{25}\).
03

- Favorable Outcomes

Next, calculate the number of favorable outcomes where no two people have the same birthday. For the first person, there are 365 choices. For the second person, there are 364 choices (to avoid the first person's birthday), and so on. Therefore, the number of favorable outcomes is: \(365 \times 364 \times 363 \times \text{...} \times (365 - 24) = \frac{365!}{(365 - 25)!}\).
04

- Calculate the Probability

Divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes to get the probability: \[ P(\text{no two share a birthday}) = \frac{365 \times 364 \times 363 \times ... \times 341}{365^{25}} \].
05

- Simplify and Compute the Probability

To simplify the computation, use the approach of multiplying the individual probabilities step-by-step: \[ P(\text{no two share a birthday}) = \frac{365}{365} \times \frac{364}{365} \times \frac{363}{365} \times ... \times \frac{341}{365}. \] Computing the above product will yield approximately \(0.431\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with the analysis of random phenomena. The fundamental concept here is the probability, which quantifies the likelihood of an event occurring. It ranges from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). In this exercise, we analyze the probability of a specific event: no two people out of 25 sharing the same birthday.

To solve such a problem, we leverage basic probability rules and concepts. We use the complement rule, which states that the probability of at least one event happening is equal to one minus the probability of none of those events happening. By focusing on the complement event, calculations become more manageable. Here it's crucial to remember that for independent events, the combined probability of all events occurring is the product of their individual probabilities.
Permutations and Combinations
Permutations and combinations are essential tools in probability and statistics. A permutation considers the arrangement of objects in a specific order, while a combination focuses on the selection of objects without considering order.

In our birthday problem, we use permutations because the order in which people are assigned birthdays matters to ensure no two people share the same birthday. We begin with 365 choices for the first person, 364 for the second, and continue reducing the choices until the 25th person, who has 341 options. This gives us the formula: \[ \frac{365!}{(365 - 25)!} \] for favorable outcomes where no two people share a birthday.
Statistical Computation
Statistical computation involves using mathematical techniques to calculate probabilities, averages, variances, and other statistical measures. For this problem, the computation part primarily requires determining the probability using the fraction of favorable outcomes to possible outcomes.

\[ P(\text{no two share a birthday}) = \frac{365 \times 364 \times 363 \times ... \times 341}{365^{25}} \]

Simplifying these calculations doesn’t necessarily require manual computation, as tools like calculators or software packages can efficiently evaluate these products. However, understanding the process is crucial for interpreting the results.

Additionally, these calculations inform us about the product of probabilities: \[ P(\text{no two share a birthday}) = \frac{365}{365} \times \frac{364}{365} \times \frac{363}{365} \times ... \times \frac{341}{365} \]

By performing this computation step-by-step, we find the result to be approximately 0.431. This indicates that when 25 people are chosen randomly, there is approximately a 43.1% chance that no two people will share a birthday.
Birthday Paradox
The birthday paradox is a famous problem in probability theory that demonstrates how our intuition about probability can be misleading. It shows that in a relatively small group of people, there is a surprisingly high probability that at least two people share a birthday.

For example, with just 23 people, there's a more than 50% chance that two people will share the same birthday. In our problem with 25 people, our computed probability (~43.1%) complements this probability and reinforces the paradox. While it may seem improbable that shared birthdays are likely in such a small group, the vast number of possible paired comparisons (combinations) increases the likelihood dramatically.

Understanding the birthday paradox helps to develop deeper insights into how combinatorial and probabilistic forces interact, often counter to intuitive expectations. This is vital for students learning about probabilistic events, combinatorics, and statistical computation.

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