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You are interested in comparing the null hypothesis \(p=0.8\) against the alternative hypothesis \(p<0.8 .\) In 100 trials you observe 73 successes. Calculate the \(p\) -value associated with this result.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The p-value is calculated using the Z score under the standard normal distribution. The calculated Z score needs to be looked up in a standard normal table or a statistical software, and the resulting value is the p-value. The p-value will be the answer.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses and Observed Outcome

The null hypothesis \(H_0\) is that \(p = 0.8\) and the alternative hypothesis \(H_a\) is that \(p < 0.8\). Our observed outcome is 73 successes in 100 trials.
02

Calculate the test statistic

The test statistic for a hypothesis test of a binomial proportion is a Z-score (Z). The formula for Z is \[ Z = \frac{(X - np_0)}{\sqrt{np_0(1-p_0)}} \]where X is the number of successes, \(n\) is the number of trials, and \(p_0\) is the hypothesized value of success probability under the null hypothesis. Substituting the given values in the formula gives \[ Z = \frac{(73 - 100*0.8)}{\sqrt{100*0.8*(1-0.8)}} \]
03

Find p-value

To find the p-value, we need to find the probability that a Z score is less than the one we found, because the alternative hypothesis is \(p < 0.8\). We do this by looking up the z-score in the standard normal distribution table or using a statistical function in a software.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, symbolized as \(H_0\), is the default statement or position that there is no effect or no difference, and it is the hypothesis that we aim to test against. In the context of the problem, the null hypothesis is \(p = 0.8\), asserting that the true proportion \(p\) of successes is 0.8, or 80%. This is the assumption we work with unless the evidence suggests otherwise.

The null hypothesis serves as a benchmark, allowing researchers to determine if the observed data significantly deviates from what was expected based on this initial assumption. Accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis revolves around the evidence, particularly the data collected from experiments or observations.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, denoted by \(H_a\) or \(H_1\), is what you would believe to be true if you reject the null hypothesis. It is the hypothesis that suggests a new effect or relationship exists that contradicts the null hypothesis. For our exercise, the alternative hypothesis is \(p < 0.8\), indicating that the researcher believes the true proportion of successes is less than 80%.

When we conduct a hypothesis test, we gather evidence to determine if it supports the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis. The decision to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative is not done lightly—it's based strongly on the degree of deviation observed in the data, measured using statistical tests.
Binomial Proportion
A binomial proportion is the ratio of successes to the total number of trials in a binomial distribution scenario. A binomial distribution describes the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, with each trial having the same probability of success.

In the given problem, we observed 73 successes out of 100 trials. Hence, the observed binomial proportion is \( \frac{73}{100} = 0.73 \). This is the actual proportion obtained from the experiment, which we want to compare with the hypothesized proportion (under the null hypothesis) to make inferences about the population being studied.
Z-score
A Z-score, or standard score, indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. In the context of hypothesis testing for a binomial proportion, the Z-score measures the difference between the observed success proportion and the null hypothesis proportion, in terms of standard deviations.

In the calculation from our exercise, the Z-score formula incorporates the observed number of successes, expected number of successes under the null hypothesis, and the variability of the number of successes. The calculated Z-score provides a way to assess how unusual or typical the observed data is, assuming the null hypothesis is true.
P-value
The p-value is a crucial statistic in hypothesis testing, representing the probability of obtaining results at least as extreme as the observed data, assuming that the null hypothesis is correct. A small p-value indicates that the observed data is unlikely under the null hypothesis and may lead to its rejection in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

In our problem, upon calculating the Z-score, we would seek to determine the p-value by finding the probability that a Z-score would be less than the calculated value if the null hypothesis were true. If this p-value is below a predetermined significance level (often 0.05), we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a special case of the normal distribution that is centered at zero and has a standard deviation of one. It's used in a wide array of statistical analyses, particularly in creating Z-scores.

When we calculate a Z-score for hypothesis testing, we then refer to the standard normal distribution to find the associated probabilities. These probabilities help us determine the p-value. By consulting the standard normal distribution (or using statistical software), we can interpret our Z-score within the context of the normal curve and decide whether our observed data fits within the common range of variation or if it's statistically significant—and therefore, potentially indicative of a real effect or difference that challenges the null hypothesis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Three nationwide poll results are described below. USA Today Snapshot/Rent.com, August 18,2009 \(N=1000\) adults 18 and over; \(\mathrm{MoE} \pm 3 .\) (MoE is margin of error. "What renters look for the most when seeking an apartment:" Washer/dryer\(-39\%,\) Air Conditioning \(-30 \%,\) Fitness Center- \(10 \%,\) Pool \(-10 \%\) USA Today/Harris Interactive Poll, February \(10-15,2009 ; N=1010\) adults; MoE ±3. "Americans who say people on Wall Street are "as honest and moral as other people." Disagree \(-70 \%\) Agree \(-26 \%,\) Not sure/refuse to answer \(-4 \%\) American Association of Retired Persons Bulletin/AARP survey, July 22-August 2, 2009; \(N=1006\) adults age 50 and older; \(\mathrm{MoE} \pm 3\). The American Association of Retired Persons Bulletin Survey reported that \(16 \%\) of adults, 50 and older, said they are likely to return to school. Each of the polls is based on approximately 1005 randomly selected adults. a. Calculate the \(95 \%\) confidence maximum error of estimate for the true binomial proportion based on binomial experiments with the same sample size and observed proportion as listed first in each article. b. Explain what caused the values of the maximum errors to vary. c. The margin of error being reported is typically the value of the maximum error rounded to the next larger whole percentage. Do your results in part a verify this? d. Explain why the round-up practice is considered "conservative." e. What value of \(p\) should be used to calculate the standard error if the most conservative margin of error is desired?

The recommended number of hours of sleep per night is 8 hours, but everybody "knows" that the average college student sleeps less than 7 hours. The number of hours slept last night by 10 randomly selected college students is listed here: $$\begin{array}{rrrrrrr}5.2 & 6.8 & 6.2 & 5.5 & 7.8 & 5.8 & 7.1 & 8.1 & 6.9 & 5.6\end{array}$$ Use a computer or calculator to complete the hypothesis test: \(H_{o}: \mu=7, H_{a}: \mu<7, \alpha=0.05\).

"You say tomato, burger lovers say ketchup!" According to a recent T.G.I. Friday's restaurants' random survey of 1027 Americans, approximately half \((47 \%)\) said that ketchup is their preferred burger condiment. The survey quoted a margin of error of plus or minus \(3.1 \% .\) a. Describe how this survey of 1027 Americans fits the properties of a binomial experiment. Specifically identify \(n,\) a trial, success, \(p,\) and \(x\). b. What is the point estimate for the proportion of all Americans who prefer ketchup on their burger? Is it a parameter or a statistic? c. Calculate the \(95 \%\) confidence maximum error of estimate for a binomial experiment of 1027 trials that results in an observed proportion of 0.47 d. How is the maximum error, found in part c, related to the \(3.1 \%\) margin of error quoted in the survey report? e. Find the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the true proportion \(p\) based on a binomial experiment of 1027 trials that results in an observed proportion of 0.47.

Use a computer or calculator to find the area (a) to the left, and (b) to the right of \(\chi^{2} \star=20.2\) with df \(=15\).

Although most people are aware of minor dehydration symptoms such as dry skin and headaches, many are less knowledgeable about the causes of dehydration. According to a poll done for the Nutrition Information Center, the results of a random sample of 3003 American adults showed that \(20 \%\) did not know that caffeine dehydrates. The survey listed a margin of error of plus or minus \(1.8 \%\). a. Describe how this survey of 3003 American adults fits the properties of a binomial experiment. Specifically identify \(n,\) a trial, success, \(p,\) and \(x .\) b. What is the point estimate for the proportion of all Americans who did not know that caffeine dehydrates? Is it a parameter or a statistic? c. Calculate the \(95 \%\) confidence maximum error of estimate for a binomial experiment of 3003 trials that result in an observed proportion of \(0.20 .\) d. How is the maximum error, found in part c, related to the \(1.8 \%\) margin of error quoted in the survey report? e. Find the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the true proportion \(p\) based on a binomial experiment of 3003 trials that results in an observed proportion of 0.20.

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