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A machine is considered to be operating in an acceptable manner if it produces \(0.5 \%\) or fewer defective parts. It is not performing in an acceptable manner if more than \(0.5 \%\) of its production is defective. The hypothesis \(H_{o}: p=0.005\) is tested against the hypothesis \(H_{a}: p>0.005\) by taking a random sample of 50 parts produced by the machine. The null hypothesis is rejected if two or more defective parts are found in the sample. Find the probability of the type I error.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of Type I error, given the parameters of this exercise, would be calculated using the solution provided in step 3.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the parameters for the binomial distribution

In this problem, the number of trials (n) is 50 (the size of the sample). The probability of success (p), which in this case represents the probability of getting a defective part, is given by the null hypothesis as 0.005.
02

Compute the probability of obtaining 0 and 1 defective parts

We use the binomial distribution formula \(P(x) = C(n, x) * (p^x) * ((1 - p)^(n - x))\) where x is the number of 'successes', n is the number of trials, and p is the probability of success on each trial. Apply the formula twice to calculate: \(P(x=0)\) and \(P(x=1)\).
03

Calculate the probability of Type I error

Type I error represents the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is in fact true. In this case, it's the probability of the machine being classified as not acceptable when it actually is. This is equivalent to the probability of obtaining two or more defective parts given that the true rate of defects is 0.005, i.e., \(P(X \geq 2)\) . Since probabilities for all events sum up to 1: \(P(X \geq 2) = 1 - P(x=0) - P(x=1)\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a fundamental statistical concept used to describe the outcome of a fixed number of trials, where each trial is independent and results in a success or failure. In the context of our exercise, each trial represents the production of a part, and a success is the occurrence of a defective part.

To understand this distribution, imagine flipping a coin. If we're flipping it 50 times to see how many times it lands on heads, and each flip is independent of the last, we're looking at a binomial distribution where the number of trials is 50 (denoted as n), and the probability of landing heads (success) is fixed for each flip.

In the exercise, the number of trials, n, is 50, which corresponds to the number of parts inspected. The probability of success, p (the probability of a part being defective), is 0.005 as defined by the null hypothesis. Using the binomial distribution formula, we can determine the probability of finding exactly x defective parts among the 50 tested.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, usually symbolized as H0, is a statistical hypothesis that asserts there is no significant difference or effect, or in other terms, everything is operating under normal conditions as expected. In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis serves as a starting assumption which is tested with the aim of being either rejected or not rejected based on the data.

In our exercise, the null hypothesis is that the probability of producing a defective part, p, is equal to 0.005, meaning that the machine is operating in an acceptable manner. The alternative hypothesis, Ha, posits that p is greater than 0.005, implying that the machine is producing too many defective parts. Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true leads to what we call a Type I error. This error is of particular interest when it comes to ensuring that machines are not erroneously deemed unacceptable.
Probability of Defective Parts
When manufacturing items, it's vital to understand the probability of defective parts as it directly affects the quality control process. This probability informs decisions on whether the manufacturing process maintains a standard of quality or if it needs adjustments. The acceptable level of defective parts is set in the hypothesis testing framework.

In the given exercise, the acceptable probability of defective parts is pegged at 0.5 percent or 0.005 in decimal form. In analyzing the quality of the production, we look at samples - in this case, 50 parts. If the actual probability of defects exceeds 0.005, quality standards are not being met. To quantify this, we use the binomial distribution to calculate the likelihood of observing a certain number of defectives, aiding us in decision-making regarding the production process.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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